Archive for Marc Staal

Some quick notes that broke over the weekend:

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Jun
01

Injury news from breakup day

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Per Steve Zipay, the Rangers were pretty banged up in the Tampa Bay series.

  • Ryan McDonagh had a fractured foot, suffered in Game 4.
  • Dan Girardi sprained his right MCL in Game 4.
  • Mats Zuccarello had a brain contusion (yeesh), full recovery expected. He was unable to talk for 3 days and needed speech therapy.
  • Marc Staal had a hairline fracture in his ankle, suffered in the regular season.

While injuries are not an excuse, these injuries certainly played a role in the Rangers’ defensive performance in the latter half of the series.

Categories : Injuries
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I’m spoiling you. As I head to New York myself on Tuesday morning I thought I would muse for the second time in a week. Sometimes we go weeks without ‘musings’ sometimes I have a lot I want to say so let’s jump into it.

Marc Methot gets 19.6 million, makes Ottawa make Glen Sather look savy. I too am absolutely sensitive about Marc Staal’s contract. He comes with a huge health warning and will probably never be the truly dominant player he could have become but Marc Methot getting close to 5m a year makes Staal’s deal look more than fine (health allowing). Staal has more offensive upside than Methot and teams also pay for numbers.

If they’re comparable defensively it’s probably only because Staal has had a couple so-so years recently. In addition, Methot may be one of the few top four defenseman around the league that is even more injury prone than Staal. The price for defensemen continues to get out of control.

The Rangers may be quiet at the deadline through no fault of their own. Many of their apparent targets are gone. Santorelli is in Nashville, and a few players linked to the franchise like Patrick Kaleta are injured past the deadline.

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Categories : Musings
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Jan
21

Midseason grades: Defense

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With the All-Star Game coming up this weekend, we’ve been handing out our annual midseason grades. Dave tackled the goaltending and coaches, Chris wrote about the top-six forwards, and today I’ll be reviewing the defense.

Dan Boyle

Boyle’s season got off to a slow start after the 38-year-old D-man missed the first five weeks of the year with a broken wrist. But in my eyes, he was brought here to do one thing – fix the power play – and that’s been a resounding success. Does Boyle deserve all the credit? Definitely not. But he has made a major impact moving the puck quickly and decisively on the man advantage, and he’s been better in his own end than I expected. Boyle has been deployed in the offensive zone whenever possible, but he’s made that positioning count by helping the team direct rubber at the opposing net at a terrific rate.

The decision to let Anton Stralman go in favor of Boyle may haunt the Rangers for years, but for the short term, I’m pretty comfortable with the tradeoff.

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Categories : Defense
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Jan
19

Evaluating the Marc Staal contract

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In case you missed it, the New York Rangers re-signed Marc Staal to a six-year, $34.2 million contract extension yesterday, ensuring the top-four defenseman remains on Broadway for most, if not all, of his professional career. Ranger fans are torn over this. Some are ecstatic that the Rangers kept one of their cornerstone defensemen, others aren’t too thrilled about another long-term contract, and the rest are downright upset because Staal isn’t a #fancystats possession darling. Not even us here at BSB agree on it. Chaos! Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats living together… mass hysteria!

It’s no secret that Staal has had a bit of an odd career arc thus far. Without rehashing that entire post (which you should read), Staal was nothing short of brilliant up until 2010. He was then paired with Dan Girardi, and his #fancystats suffered. There is some noise here, as Staal was also used as the primary shutdown defenseman –with Girardi– that year, the first time in his career. Regardless his #fancystats suffered, but his offensive output actually went up because he was being used on the powerplay.

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Categories : Players
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Following up on the report this week, the New York Rangers and defenseman Marc Staal have agreed to terms on a six-year contract extension worth $34.2 million ($5.7 million per year). The deal will have a no-move for the first three years, and a limited no-trade for the last three years.

Folks are comparing this to the deal for Dan Girardi, and I disagree. Yes, it’s a big contract for a defenseman that doesn’t contribute much offensively. However Staal brings more to the table than Girardi, at least in my opinion. There will be a post breaking this down coming later this week.

Categories : Signings
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Per Larry Brooks, the New York Rangers and Marc Staal are closing in on a six-year deal between $5.6 and $5.9 million per season. The deal will take Staal through his age-34 season. The Rangers have somewhere around $20 million in cap space for next year, depending on the actual cap number, and Staal’s contract will eat up at least 25% of that space.

With Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello also set to be free agents, Zucc an unrestricted free agent, there will be some tough decisions to make if Staal’s deal is signed.

Staal has been a fixture on the Rangers blue line since the 2007-2008 season after the Rangers traded up to grab him in the first round of the 2005 draft. Injuries marred his 2011-2013 seasons, and we’ve done some analysis on his very odd career arc. Some here think an extension is a bad idea, others a good idea. I’m on the fence, but I don’t like six-year deals for someone who isn’t a guarantee.

Update: Pierre LeBrun has noted the deal will have a full NTC in the first three years, and a partial NTC in the last three years. The deal will also have a full no-move clause, pertaining to waivers.

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We’ve seen this narrative play out before haven’t we? Popular players in contract years can never seem to avoid fan scrutiny, beat writer adoration, or trade rumors. It’s Cally, Girardi, Henrik, etc. all over again, except this season it’s Marc Staal.

Over the past few weeks, the conversation around Staal has started to heat up. He’s been described as ‘untouchable’ by some and a ‘tire fire’ by others. Somewhere between extremes is where reality usually lies.

Before we evaluate whether or not to resign, trade, or let Marc walk, we have to define what his role will be moving forward. From there we can analyze if there are adequate replacements inside or outside the organization.

Staal’s role

Last spring Marc described his role within AV’s team concept to Steve Serby of the NYPost.

Defensive defenseman. I take care of my own end … try to be great positionally and have a good stick, and make sure I’m getting out of my end quickly, not spending a lot of time there … get transition, give it to the forwards, and let them do their thing.”

Roles like these are always tough to quantify, especially for players like Staal who are typically deployed in their own end zone, against top scoring lines, and don’t contribute much offensively.

Fortunately, war-on-ice.com has begun tracking shots in the slot/hextally figures and scoring chances – long overdue in my opinion – which gives us a decent view of Staal’s effectiveness.

Some stats

So far this season, Staal’s even-strength scoring chances against (per 60 minutes of playing time) is 25.60, which is right in line with his career average. However, his scoring chances for (per 60 minutes of playing time) is 24.80, which is well below his career average (27.9).

Obviously there are many factors at play here, but the macro takeaway is that he’s still solid in his own zone defensively, but perhaps not at getting the puck up ice. Whether or not this is a blip on the radar or a trend remains to be seen. However, it seems his play is heading in the right direction after a tough stretch between mid-November and mid-December.

Screen Shot 2015-01-03 at 6.14.46 PM

On Ice Scoring Chance Differential

Staal’s value

With limited offensive potential, Staal’s value is ultimately going to be determined by whether or not GMs view him as a first or second pairing defensemen. If they believe him to be a first pairing defensemen, he could probably get $5.5-$5.9M per year for 5-6 years, which is about what most defensemen in his role and age range have been garnering (e.g., Seabrook, Girardi, Carle, etc.).

If they view him as a second pairing defensemen, he’s probably looking at $4.5M-$4.9M and a similar term. Again, this is looking at recent contracts for defensemen in similar roles and age range (e.g., Stralman, Tyutin, Goligoski, etc.).

Staal’s Replacement

I always get ragged on for suggesting that Marc could join his brothers in Carolina. I just have a hard time seeing him sign anywhere else if he doesn’t re-up with NY. The Canes defense is aging and mediocre. They don’t have any d-men (other than Falk) locked up long-term. More importantly, Eric and Jordan have NTCs.

Trading Staal pre-free agency would make sense, but I’m sure every GM is aware of the possibility he could head south this summer. Knowing this, the most we could probably get in return is a pick or a prospect, neither of which help us win a Cup this year.

As far as internal options go, McIlrath (currently in Hartford) is probably a bottom pairing defensemen if he even makes it to Broadway. John Moore still has a ways to go if we’re going to bump him up from the third pairing. Connor Allen (also in Hartford) is probably more of a backup for Moore than a replacement for Staal. Brady Skjei (NYR 1st rounder in 2012) is the likely replacement, but he’s still a year or two away.

The Final Word

Ultimately, if you don’t want to resign Staal for the terms described above, you’re probably looking at a stopgap solution via free agency or an offseason trade until Brady Skjei can take the reigns.

Categories : Analysis, Players
Comments (32)

The idea which has been floated around by Rangers beat writers all season that Marc Staal is an extremely important piece of this Rangers team and therefore must be signed to a contract extension is simply not true. Staal is an average to below average NHL defenseman at this point in his career due to, among other things, concussions and the eye injury we all remember very well. Turning 28 in January, Staal is believed to be seeking a six year deal worth $6 million annually, while the Rangers are offering him a deal similar to that of Dan Girardi’s six-year $5.5 million deal. Either contract would be a terrible deal for the Blueshirts.

Staal would be on the wrong side of 30 midway through his deal and if his numbers this season (5v5: CF% of 48%, P/60 of 0.48, CA/60 of 52.36) are any indication of the future, the Rangers would be wise to cut ties. In 162:05 TOI (yes, small sample size) defensive partner Dan Boyle has a 5v5 CF% of 48.5% when they’re on the ice together. In 115:50 TOI when Boyle is without Staal, he has a 5v5 CF% of 54.7%. Despite the small sample sizes my belief is these numbers wont change drastically one way or the other.

Beyond the #fancystats Staal just simply hasn’t been the same force on defense he was prior to those gruesome injuries. We’ve seen him get burned, we’ve seen his decision making take a hit, and we’ve seen his overall play diminish.

I would imagine that teams around the league still find value in a player like Staal, however misplaced it may be. He has name recognition, a first round pedigree and has been a part of a relatively successful Rangers team over the past several years. The Rangers should be looking to trade him, not extend him.

If Staal was looking for reasonable money and a short term extension I would be all for re-signing him. But he’s not. With plenty of UFAs and RFAs needing new contracts at the end of the year (Martin St. Louis, Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Jesper Fast), if the Rangers give Staal big money they’re likely going to have to part with St. Louis or Zuccarello, two incredibly important pieces to this team, specifically Zucc.

Glen Sather would be hurting the Rangers for years to come should he give Staal the type of contract the two sides are discussing. A cap-strapped team with young talent that will be lost due to poor decision making and overvaluing defensemen due to their size and strength would make for a pretty bad situation for this franchise as well as its fans. As much as it hurts to see another home grown Ranger leave town, it would be the wise move to make.

Categories : Players
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Dec
18

Musings: Lots of Rangers Rolling

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50 goal season?

50 goal season?

What a difference a week makes. The Rangers went to Western Canada unsure of themselves and came back on a roll, with a double header against a weak opponent on tap. It’s the festive season and the Rangers can really make some ground up to close out the year. A week to go before Christmas, let’s muse.

The cliché was always that power forwards take several years to maximise their potential. Could it really be that Rick Nash has only just begun to fulfil his potential? Yes he has been an elite power forward for several years and a consistent goal scorer but it’s a fair argument that he’s never maxed his undoubted skill set and upside. Until now.

Nash is definitely having the best patch of his career. Consistent, a beast at both ends all the while he’s finishing at an unprecedented rate. He’s a game changing force every single game. It’s early, but people have started to whisper the words Hart Trophy candidate with regard to Nash. Absolutely deserves to be in the mix.

Should we be worried about Dan Boyle? Or glad that he’s a sort of afterthought because of the improved play of the Rangers ‘big three’ on the blueline?

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Categories : Musings
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