For all intents and purposes, the New York Rangers wrapped up their offseason with the Braden Schneider contract extension late yesterday afternoon. Schneider signed a one year contract extension worth $5.5 million. It seems many are happy that this isn’t a long term commitment, which was the right move by the Rangers. Committing long term to a player that hasn’t progressed beyond a borderline 2RD could have been another cap blunder. His one year contract also guarantees one more year of team control before unrestricted free agency.
On the Braden Schneider contract
1. First on the Braden Schneider contract itself, the dollar amount is a bit higher than expected for a one year contract. Evolving-Hockey had Schneider at $3.6 million. So this is a little more than a 50% overpay by Chris Drury. At first the dollar amount seemed fine, but when checked with expectations, and remember Schneider was not an unrestricted free agent, it’s an overpay. It’s not an egregious overpay, but it’s worth noting because there are some implications that could perhaps impact trade value.
The Rangers have around $2.5 million in cap space, so this season is far from a cap crunch.
2. There are two things to note about the Braden Schneider contract. First, he has one more year of restricted free agency–arbitration eligible–with a qualifying offer of $5.5 million. That qualifying offer is of particular importance, as it could deter teams from trading for him if there is still interest. Remember, Schneider’s perceived value is far higher than his actual on ice value, and at some point those numbers start to match. If Drury is unable to trade Schneider before the season starts, his value could tank with a poor season.
3. The other important implication of the Braden Schneider contract is the length. Much like with Ryan Lindgren, the Rangers refused to commit long term to Schneider. Assuming this isn’t a coincidence, then the Rangers may not view Schneider as a long term option. Adam Fox isn’t going anywhere and Sean Durzi is now here for two years. With Scott Morrow needing roster space–and it behooves the Rangers to at least see what they have in him–there just isn’t a spot for Schneider, especially as a 3RD making $5.5 million. That cap space is best served elsewhere.
So where can Schneider land?
4. I still believe Schneider is eventually going to wind up in Buffalo, and John Davidson’s recent hire as a special advisor to GM Jarmo Kekalainen adds more fuel to this fire.
Buffalo just re-signed Peyton Krebs to a five year contract, which leads me to believe Ryan McLeod could be dangled to address some right defense needs in Buffalo. McLeod is a guy I’ve mentioned a bunch dating back to last year, and he does fit a bunch of needs for the Rangers as a speedy 2C who is still just 26 years old. It makes sense for both teams, but that doesn’t guarantee a trade.
5. The Braden Schneider contract shouldn’t impact his trade value right now since he does have that extra year of team control. However there is significant risk if he continues to stagnate and plateau. Drury needs to strike while the iron is hot. McLeod isn’t my top preference–that goes to Shane Wright for pure offensive ceiling potential–but he’s a solid piece that moves the Rangers forward. A 2C is a critical need to shift JT Miller to the wing and address their need to get younger down the middle.
6. If Schneider is still with the Rangers when the season starts, then there are going to be trade rumors through the trade deadline, which as Ryan Lindgren can certainly attest to, are a distraction. However there is a strong argument to give Schneider one more season to see if a revamped blue line can help unlock his potential. That would require breaking up the expected second pair of Durzi and Marcus Pettersson, but it’s not that far fetched.
The counterpoint is Schneider played with Vlad Gavrikov last season for a significant chunk of time and it was clear Schneider was lost. Perhaps it’s because Gavrikov isn’t a puck mover, and Schneider’s best numbers came with Erik Gustafsson a couple seasons ago. The Rangers don’t have a strong puck mover on the left side.
The Braden Schneider contract is evidence that Drury and Mike Sullivan are on the fence about Schneider’s future with the team. If it’s not working, the contract is too much for the role, or in this case, both, then it’s best to leave some outs. The Rangers have a few outs with the Braden Schneider contract, but no path is without risk. It will be interesting to see how Drury navigates this in the coming months.
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