As the eventful Rangers offseason starts to slow to a crawl, there is really only one outstanding question for Chris Drury. That is, of course, what to do with Braden Schneider. Schneider filed for arbitration, which is standard practice for any player with arbitration rights. That’s not really news, it was the expectation. But with newly acquired Sean Durzi likely starting as the 2RD, Braden Schneider’s future with the Rangers is most certainly in question. He’s a prime trade chip, but not one that needs to be moved immediately.
Braden Schneider’s next contract might be steep
The Rangers have roughly $7.7 million in cap space right now, give or take depending on who makes the team. Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections, usually accurate within 10%, projects Schneider’s next contract to be about 5 years and $5 million. Naturally there are other cap hit estimates depending on contract length, but 5 years and $5 million is the most likely scenario (28% likelihood). The next two most likely scenarios are 6 years and $6 million (15%) or 4 years and $4.5 million (14%).
In a vacuum, the contract estimate is fair market value. But nothing is done in a vacuum. The issue isn’t with the estimate or even with Schneider’s possible ask, but with his role. Adam Fox is going nowhere. The newly acquired Durzi has another two years at $6 million left on his contract and is firmly in the 2RD spot. To pay a 3RD $5 million, even if he’s two years younger, is poor cap management, regardless of the players involved.
Durzi’s long term future with the Rangers is up in the air, but he’s signed for two more years and addresses a big need, supplementing Adam Fox’s play making and puck moving ability. He’s also a tremendous skater. Durzi adds a lot more of what the Rangers need right now, while Braden Schneider has plateaued with the Rangers.
Braden Schneider’s trade value exceeds his actual value
The conundrum with Braden Schneider is the classic perceived value vs. actual value discussion. Schneider is viewed as a top four right handed defenseman who is good in his own end and provides a physical presence. The problem is only the physical presence aspect is true, and even that may be exaggerated as he averages about 2 hits per game. Most on the Rangers, but not really that huge physical force he’s made out to be.
Braden Schneider is not overly good defensively, or for those who still believe in him, he isn’t a fit within the Rangers system(s) that have been used over the years. Schneider was arguably at his best when paired with K’Andre Miller, but as we’ve learned that was mostly Miller propping him up. We were calling for a Miller-Schneider pair at that time, mostly to get Jacob Trouba off the second pair and to see what Schneider could do. Schneider looked fine with Miller, and now Miller is thriving as the 1D in Carolina. Facts are facts.
Unfortunately Schneider has been a significant net negative for some time now, spanning multiple seasons. He had blips of solid play, like when he was paired with Miller, but it’s mostly been a vanilla game from Schneider. He took on a larger role when Fox went down long term, but looked lost when paired with Vlad Gavrikov. His ceiling with the Rangers is the 3RD, and even that might be in jeopardy as other players move through the system. His actual value on the ice to the Rangers is at its lowest.
That said, just because Schneider’s value to the Rangers is at its lowest doesn’t mean he doesn’t have good trade value to other teams. Despite the stats, teams around the league covet Braden Schneider because he’s a 24 year old–25 in September–right handed defenseman and former first round pick that plays that “physical, shut down style.” He’s certainly right handed and a former first round pick. As long as other teams view his play style positively, then he has more trade value than actual value to the Rangers.
Value to the Rangers =/= value to other teams
A common misconception in hockey is that trade value is created equal. The Rangers may not have much value in Braden Schneider anymore, but teams like Dallas or Anaheim, starved for right handed defensemen, would value him more as a kid with draft pedigree who needs a change of scenery, with potential to be a cornerstone of their top four. A team like Seattle could view him as the “heir apparent” to Adam Larsson.
To the Rangers, Braden Schneider represents their best trade chip to address a significant need at center. The Rangers have no young NHL centers with a high offensive ceiling. Noah Laba is their closest, and he’s projecting more like a 3C with a focus on defensive play. Still incredibly useful, but doesn’t address the fact that Mika Zibanejad and JT Miller are both on the wrong side of 30 as the Rangers attempt this retool and quick turnaround. They need young centers who can shift one or both of them to wing as they age. Shifting Miller to wing might an immediate need for this season
Teams that need young defensemen but have a surplus of young forwards should be the targets. Seattle comes to mind with Shane Wright. Dallas is less of a fit now that Mavrik Bourque has been traded. Ottawa is intriguing, and I wonder if Shane Pinto could be had for Braden Schneider. This is just spitballing, but I do believe we would need to see Schneider signed before he can be moved. There are too many variables for acquiring teams if he’s unsigned and headed to arbitration.
The Sean Durzi acquisition means Braden Schneider has more value as a trade chip than a 3RD for the New York Rangers. I expect the Rangers to move through the rest of the offseason, sign Schneider at some point, and then look to flip him for a young center.
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