In case you missed it last week, I decided I’m piggybacking off Elliotte Friedman and our own Brandon Cohen. This is a weekly thought post on Wednesdays going forward. I’d usually do these ad-hoc, but I like the idea of a mid-week thoughts post. This week, let’s focus on the trade deadline, as it is fast approaching. The Rangers strategy involving the trade deadline is up in the air, but we can make some educated guesses.
1. I wouldn’t expect much movement this trade deadline unless the Canadian government softens the 14-day quarantine period for anyone entering from the US. This restricts 25% of the league from making a trade to the rest of the NHL. It also ensures that only Canadian teams can trade with each other.
I wouldn’t blame the Canadian government for not lifting such a quarantine, as both the US and Canada are struggling to control the spread of COVID-19. It is particularly bad in the US, and unfortunately the more people that don’t care, the longer this goes on. I can see the government making an exception for the NHL, but I’m unsure how that would play from a PR standpoint.
2. COVID financial issues and the expansion draft will also have impacts on the trade deadline. Normally we might see teams make a move for players with an additional year on their deals. Now teams would need to protect that player, and most competing teams don’t have that wiggle room. There are certainly ways around it, but now the added financial strain of COVID plays a role.
Remember that not all teams are the Rangers with seemingly bottomless wallets. Real dollars out the door matter, possibly even more than the cap ceiling right now. Teams are “struggling.” Struggling is loosely defined here.
Given this, I’d expect mostly pending UFAs to be dealt.
3. For the Rangers their only pending UFAs are Brendan Smith, Phil Di Giuseppe, and Jack Johnson. Johnson just cleared waivers, although that isn’t necessarily a barometer for trade value. Smith at 50% retained might hold some value. Di Giuseppe might be an option for teams really thin at wing and needing a cheap dart throw.
As mentioned prior, do not expect the Rangers to trade Ryan Strome at the deadline. He’s a pretty nice bargain right now for a team that needs centers.
4. However, the Rangers may be in a position to acquire a player with term. As of now, they only need to protect 6 forwards (Panarin, Kreider, Strome, Zibanejad, Chytil, Buchnevich). Maybe Julien Gauthier makes his way into the 7th forward spot. They only need to protect a pair of defensemen (Trouba, Lindgren). Everyone else of importance is exempt.
I would not expect expansion draft jockeying to begin at the trade deadline, but crazier things have happened.
5. I truly believe that the trade market will open after the expansion draft, and before the entry draft. Most of the pipedream trade scenarios are targeting that time frame. As Tyler mentioned, that is likely if/when the Rangers decide to package assets, including their first pick, for immediate center help.
Who that center help is, is anyone’s guess. Top centers that are also available via trade don’t grow on trees.
6. The Rangers will get their own “trade” at the deadline, when Vitali Kravtsov joins the Rangers. There’s a spot for him in the top-nine already. Now it’s on him to stick. Gauthier’s eyeing that spot too. There is competition.
7. Of course, with all this logic pointing to a slow deadline, it’s going to be madness. Whenever we predict madness, nothing happens. So the opposite must be true, right?
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