Projecting Derek Stepan’s next contract

Stepan (AP Photo/Bruce Bennett)

Yesterday, I looked at what Carl Hagelin’s next contract might cost the Rangers, and it came out to be maybe $250,000 more than most had him pegged. I usually guess a little higher, so that people aren’t shocked if the contract comes in higher than expected. The other expensive RFA is Derek Stepan, the Rangers top-line center. Stepan, like Hagelin, is coming off his two-year bridge deal, which paid him $3.85 million this past season, and came with a cap hit of $3.075 million.

Stepan, who turns 25 tomorrow, had a weird season. He put up 55 points (16-39-55, 3-7-10 on the powerplay). Those numbers seem to be on-par with normal expectations, but are a far cry from his pace in the lockout shortened 2012-2013 season, when he put up 18-26-44 in just 48 games. I think Stepan is a 50-60 point center, putting him in the middle range of top-line centers. Stepan is also one of the few right-handed shots on the powerplay. Stepan, like Hagelin, is also arbitration-eligible.

While his point production this year was just fine, it was his other peripherals that startled a lot of people. Stepan, simply put, had a Tyler Bozak-ian season, and that’s not a compliment. He put up points, but he didn’t drive possession, the first time in his career he did not push the play up the ice. Part of the drop in the last two seasons can be related to deployment, but it’s still an alarming decline.

Courtesy of war-on-ice

He’s not getting the favorable OZ starts anymore, as his role has evolved into a two-way center at even strength, but that doesn’t explain the massive drop from 52.5% (1.6% rel) CF last season to 46.5% (-3.8% rel) this season. At first I thought it was because of the time he spent with Martin St. Louis, but it turns out Stepan may have been the negative factor here:

Courtesy of Hockey Analysis

Both MSL and Chris Kreider pushed possession better without Stepan, while Stepan took another nosedive when separated. Now, it’s worth noting that one-year samples of WOWY (without/with you, measuring how a player performs with and without teammates on the ice) are filled with noise, but it does give us some insight, and Stepan struggled away from the puck this season.

There are very few signs that the Rangers are open to the idea of using these stats the way the Kings and Hawks have. But if they do, my guess is they, like most fans, are hoping this is a one-year blip on the radar for Stepan. Otherwise, he winds up going down the Bozak path, which isn’t a good thing.

Finding comparables for Stepan is just as tough as finding comparables for Hagelin, and I’m sure his agent is looking at Brandon Dubinsky’s recent six-year, $35.1 million extension ($5.85 million cap hit) as the starting point for his client. Dubi puts up similar numbers to Stepan, but doesn’t have the same role, as Ryan Johansen is his team’s 1C. Regardless, that’s probably the lowest we would see Stepan sign for, and that’s an absolute best case scenario. That said, Dubi’s contract bought all UFA years. Stepan still has a pair of RFA years.

Before he signed his massive six-year, $43.5 million extension ($7.25 million cap hit), I was leaning towards David Krejci as a comparable, but Stepan isn’t getting that kind of money. Also, Krejci has a few 70-point seasons, whereas Stepan was only on pace to do that once in his career. Alex Steen and his $5.8 million cap hit was another one, but his 30-goal season really skewed his contract, as does the fact the Blues bought all UFA years.

Ryan O’Reilly is a close comparable if you ignore age, since Stepan is two years old. ROR’s third contract expires at the end of next season, and pays him $6.2 million ($6 million cap hit). This was a two-year contract that bought only RFA years. The production is similar, but Calgary offer-sheeted him, which forced Colorado’s hand.

That’s really it for Stepan, there are no contracts that you can view and say, “Hey, that’s a good baseline for Stepan.”

The area that allows for the most variability in Stepan’s deal is going to be length. If the Rangers just want to buy those RFA years, then the deal is going to be significantly cheaper. But if the Rangers want to commit to their 25-year-old center for long-term, then the contract gets dicey.I think Stepan gets north of $6 million for his UFA years, but his two RFA years keep the cap hit down. I’ve been pegging Stepan at $6 million per year over four or five years, and there’s no reason to change that based on the few comparables I can find.