The New York Rangers and Florida Panthers begin the 2024 Eastern Conference Final tomorrow night, and it’s going to be another tough series for both teams. The Panthers are a strong puck possession team, much like Carolina, but unlike the Hurricanes, the Panthers have solid finishing talent and a very good goalie. Let’s dive into our Rangers/Panthers systems preview, showing exactly how and where Florida can be beat.
Florida’s dump and chase is less aggressive, but very effective
Even though Florida and Carolina get similar possession results, they both do it in different ways. Carolina was always on top of the Rangers, getting controlled zone entries and playing a very aggressive forecheck, designed to cause turnovers with chaos.
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Per Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones numbers, Florida plays much more dump and chase, preferring to let their physical play cause turnovers. They are adept at not only dumping the puck in, but retrieving it as well. The Rangers won’t need to be as quick as they were against Carolina, but they will need several options to avoid getting pinned.
Where Florida excels is retrieving the puck off the dump, causing turnovers, and getting high danger chances off those turnovers. It’s not a fast paced game, but with Florida’s unique ability to play a physical and high scoring game, they can run up the score pretty quickly.
The Rangers can counter with quick ups to move the puck out quickly without getting pinned down. Florida traditionally runs a 2-1-2 forecheck. On the dump, they are very good at pressuring the puck and eliminating passing lanes. Moving the puck quickly on all three defense pairs is key.
Offensive zone pressure and neutral zone regroups
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While Florida is a very good defensive team and move the puck well, one of their weaknesses is exiting their defensive zone with the puck. Simply put, they are adept at getting the puck out of the zone quickly and retrieving it in the neutral zone to transition to offense.
The Rangers can take advantage of this with strong keeps at the blue line and anticipating the glass-and-out preference. Dumping and chasing isn’t a viable option, as Florida’s mobile blue liners are good at anticipation, retrieval, and moving the puck out.
Again, while Florida may not exit the zone with possession at a high rate, they are still adept at getting the puck out without possession and then retrieving in the neutral zone. The area between the top of the circles and the red line will be key, as the Rangers can regain possession and regroup for another offensive zone entry.
The Rangers can counter Florida’s strong exit percentages, again even without possession, by “simply” getting speed through the neutral zone and forcing them back on their heels. If the Panthers are using glass-and-out and unable to retrieve the puck in the neutral zone, it will favor the Rangers.
Rush chances and speed through the neutral zone
Per Meghan Chayka, the Rangers have been the better team at generating high danger chances off the rush in the playoffs. With Florida likely sending 3 deep in an aggressive forecheck, that leaves an opportunity for stretch passes and quick-ups to speed through the neutral zone and odd man rushes.
On the forecheck the Rangers primarily play a 2-1-2 forecheck as well, with varying degrees of aggression depending on the personnel. There are two primary scenarios: The Rangers are aggressive in their pursuit of the puck and force passes that cause turnovers, or the Rangers are a bit more passive and allow Florida to glass-and-out the puck, aiming to retrieve in the neutral zone in their 1-3-1 for a quick counter strike if the forwards fly the zone.
Now this are all generalities and not guaranteed to either A) be effective all the time, or B) even be in the plans. What we do know is the Rangers are good at limiting high danger chances against and getting a high percentage of high danger chances themselves. It’s a strength vs strength for both teams.
Panthers depth can be exploited
The big weakness to Florida, if you can call it a weakness, is they are very top heavy. They are a great team, and I believe they are a top-three team in the NHL with the Rangers and Stars. But they really struggled down the stretch without Alexksander Barkov. Any team will struggle without their 1C, but the scoring depth is lacking without him.
It would be foolish to think the Panthers are nothing without the Tarasenko-Barkov-Reinhart line. After all, the Verhaeghe-Bennett-Tkachuk line is also top tier. But they are a bit less reliable defensively and prone to breakdowns. Barkov, not so much.
Outside of their top-six, the Panthers don’t have much offense in their bottom six. If I’m Peter Laviolette, I’m aiming to get The Alex Wennberg line out against Barkov and the Mika Zibanejad line out against Bennett. That leaves, hopefully, Vincent Trocheck to feast on the Anton Lundell line while trying to match fourth line against fourth line.
Despite Luker’s preference above, I can’t see Peter Laviolette keeping K’Andre Miller-Jacob Trouba away from the top six. That duo is viewed in the coach’s eyes as the shutdown pair, so I’m expecting them to be deployed in that role, for better or for worse.
If the Rangers are able to limit Florida’s top-six, then they swing the series momentum in their favor. But if, and let’s be real, when, they get rolling, they are a force to be reckoned with.
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