Thoughts on the Alex Wennberg trade

It took a couple of days, but the Alex Wennberg trade was finally completed. It cost the Rangers a 2024 2nd round pick and a 2025 4th round pick (Dallas’ pick from the Nils Lundkvist trade). The Rangers got their 3C at 50% retained, and have most of their top assets remaining to land a 1RW.

There were a few rumored reasons for the delay, mostly focused on the Rangers trying to find a third party to take another 25% of Wennberg’s salary. That never materialized, and with the center market starting to run dry, Drury pulled the trigger, completing the Alex Wennberg trade. As per usual, I have thoughts.

1. First things first, the Alex Wennberg trade isn’t necessarily a steal for the Rangers, but it is a solid piece of work by Chris Drury. He avoided giving up anything major, keeping pieces like Matthew Robertson and Zac Jones for a bigger splash with a 1RW.

The draft picks are relatively inconsequential, as the Rangers will be picking towards the back of the draft. The 2nd rounder will be somewhere in the late-50’s or early 60’s range. The 4th rounder will be somewhere in the 120’s range. At that point they are dart throws. Educated dart throws, but dart throws nonetheless.

It is worth noting that the 4th could become a 3rd if Nils Lundkvist hits 55 points in his first 2 seasons with the Stars. He’s at 31 with 20 or so games left, so this seems like a safe bet.

2. The Alex Wennberg trade stabilizes the Rangers third line. As much as we love Jonny Brodzinski, he is best served on the fourth line. Assuming the Rangers go with Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko as Wennberg’s wingers, this line has the potential to be a possession monster. They dig for pucks, are great along the boards, and have the potential to overwhelm opponents.

Cuylle and Kakko will also finally get a center that has solid offensive skills. Again, no disrespect to Brodzinski, but he is not as skilled as Wennberg and not the setup guy that the duo needs.

That’s a lot of words to say that the Alex Wennberg trade gives the Rangers a solid third scoring line.

3. In terms of expectations, we should look back to what the third line in 2013-2014 did for the Rangers. That was the Benoit Pouliot-Derick Brassard-Mats Zuccarello line that we all loved. To be clear, we aren’t talking season numbers, we are talking what they did as a trio at 5v5, which is what matters for the likely new third line of Cuylle-Wennberg-Kakko.

In 374 minutes together, the trio put up 20 5v5 goals and allowed 9 against. If we assume 15 minutes of 5v5 time per game, that’s about 25 games together. The Rangers have 20 games left, so for this trio to live up to the 2013-2014 3rd line, they’d need about 16 goals to hit that pace.

I think that’s the highest expectation. Realistically, about 10 goals is just fine.

4. What the Alex Wennberg trade really does is shift players down in the lineup, providing that balance we talk so much about. Ideally, the fourth line –assuming neither Adam Edstrom nor Matt Rempe are on the roster following the trade deadline– has Brodzinski as the 4C with Jimmy Vesey and Barclay Goodrow.

The key is Goodrow as a winger, not as a center. It’s time to start limiting his exposure and move him to a position that isn’t as critical as the center position. We are also living in a reality where Goodrow is in the lineup.

5. The Rangers aren’t done yet, and I’m sure if the Alex Wennberg trade was the only move, many would be upset. The Rangers are in the mix for a 1RW, be it Jake Guentzel, Frank Vatrano, or the pipe dream Pavel Buchnevich.

Vatrano would come the cheapest, but Pat Verbeek apparently won’t move off wanting a 1st round pick for him. That’s a no-go for Drury, as it should be. I like Vatrano, but part of the reason why he was viewed so highly with the Rangers was because he cost a 4th round pick. Up the acquisition cost, up the expectations, and more chance of failure.

6. It does seem there is some legitimate smoke behind Guentzel, initially seen as a pipe dream, as the price for wingers is much lower than expected. Kyle Dubas is not in a good position, and he has to determine the value in keeping him or selling while he can. He only has 2 days left to do so.

The Penguins have 3 games in hand, but are 8 points back of Tampa with 3 teams to leapfrog. That’s a tall order for any team, but they are also the only team in that bunch (Tampa, Isles, Caps) with a double digit positive goal differential. In fact, their +10 goal differential is actually third in the Metro Division.

There’s a strong case for them to go for it, especially with that aging core. But it does seem they want to re-tool on the fly and get a young NHL player. The best Chris Drury will offer is Zac Jones.

7. It does seem like the Rangers will try to get a depth defenseman as Jones insurance, and that may wait until the last second. Think Justin Braun, that kind of deal.