Tne Rangers got some rough news yesterday, as Filip Chytil is returning to Czechia for the next stage of his recovery from a concussion. Chytil had previously seen a concussion specialist, and it appears he didn’t get any good news aside from wait it out. Chytil was skating on his own briefly, but there is no word on his timeline, the severity of the concussion, or whether he is still skating.
This is a big blow to the Rangers, as Chytil returning to Czechia all but confirms the Rangers will be without him for the foreseeable future. They’ve been surviving with Nick Bonino as the 3C, but the ideal Rangers lineup moves Bonino down to the fourth line and Barclay Goodrow back to the wing. So naturally, the biggest trade deadline need now is to replace Chytil.
1. It is assumed that Chytil will be out for the rest of the regular season. It takes a couple steps of logically processing the situation to get there, as it’s not a straightforward injury. With Chytil back in Czechia, it’s likely he is there for an extended period of time, perhaps even a few months. The NHL trade deadline is March 8, which is 10 weeks away. If Chytil isn’t making any progress by the All Star break/bye week, then it would behoove Chris Drury to look to replace Chytil before the trade deadline passes.
If the Rangers make a move for a center that eats up the LTIR space, then Chytil can’t return due to the salary cap. Thus, the logical reasoning he’s done for the regular season.
2. The absolute best case scenario, aside from Chytil making a miraculous recovery in the next 6-8 weeks, is the Rangers acquiring a 3C at the trade deadline, and then Chytil returning for the playoff run. There’s no salary cap in the playoffs, as noted by recent Cup winners Tampa Bay and Vegas, who used this loophole to get Nikita Kucherov and Mark Stone back, respectively, for the playoffs.
An extra body in the middle of the lineup goes a long way to providing injury depth, especially in the playoffs. While both Jonny Brodzinski and Tyler Pitlick have been fine while the Rangers deal with injuries, they should both be temporary plugs until the Rangers can figure out how to fill their lineup holes.
3. The centers likely to be available haven’t really changed, and assuming the Rangers only want a pure rental, there aren’t many options. The three “big” names are Adam Henrique, Alex Wennberg, and Elias Lindholm. There are other names that haven’t been as popular yet, perhaps like Sean Monahan or Jack Roslovic, and most are fine options in a vacuum. But the key isn’t getting the “best” player, it’s about getting the right player.
The Rangers would be looking for someone to fill a tertiary scoring/3C role. The primary target would be a two-way player that is strong in all three zones and doesn’t rely on offensive numbers to provide on-ice value. That’s not to say they will want a defense-first player, but they will want someone who isn’t a black hole defensively.
4. If we look at roles, we know where Peter Laviolette sits with his top six. The Artemi Panarin line is the pure offense, sheltered zone starts like. Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider will get 50/50 zone starts and draw some top defensive competition. That leaves the third line to also draw 50/50 starts –since the Panarin line should be sheltered– and also provide some depth scoring.
5. This is perhaps the sole reason why Elias Lindholm may not be viable for the Rangers. Acquisition cost is going to be sky high, as he’s a 1C/2C in most people’s eyes. The Rangers went the super team route last year, and it didn’t work out. Lesson learned: Get the right guy. Lindholm is a solid hockey player, but he may not be the right guy for the Rangers in the role they’d need him to play.
There are also rumblings that wherever he lands, he wants an extension. He has no contractual power to make such a demand though, so we will see how that turns out. The Rangers, flat out, can’t afford to extend him.
Lindholm is going to be a great add for a team headed to the playoffs, but he may not be the right fit for the Rangers.
6. Aside from some 2012 PTSD, Adam Henrique is probably one of the better options for the Rangers. He’s already a 3C, behind both Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish in Anaheim. He’s a solid two-way player and would be a nice complement to Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko, the expected wingers on the third line (when healthy). We know there’s offensive skill there, and Henrique is no liability in the defensive zone.
The same goes for Alex Wennberg (Seattle). Assuming the Kraken fall out of the race –Edmonton has a whopping 5 games in hand– they will be sellers. Wennberg and Henrique aren’t necessarily the same type of player, but they have similar enough impacts that they’d provide a nice offensive element to the third line.
7. Other names I’ve seen mentioned, like Jack Roslovic and Sean Monahan, may not be the right fit for the system. In all fairness, this is solely based off RAPM charts, which show a huge net-negative defensively.
As with any analysis that uses just one method of review, this should be taken with a grain of salt. From what we’ve been able to gather, Monahan had a ton of defensive struggles in Calgary as well, so that may not be a team impact for him. Neither of these two are preferable, but if it’s a choice between the two, Roslovic is the better option on paper. He’s also a far better skater.
8. On Chytil himself, this is horrible news for him. He’s dealt with concussion issues most of his career, and this is suspected to be his 4th or 5th concussion. As noted yesterday, both Patrice Bergeron and Sidney Crosby overcame early concussion issues to have long, sustained careers. Chytil was primed to be the Rangers long term 2C, and he with Mika Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck formed one of the best 1-2-3 punches down the middle in the entire league.
Let’s hope Chytil’s recovery takes a turn for the better in the coming months. The kid was on the cusp of breaking out.
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