Thoughts on the Patrick Kane trade

The Rangers finally pulled the trigger on the Patrick Kane trade, officially announcing it at 8pm last night. By then, all the details had emerged, and it was a matter of when they’d formally announce the trade. It took way too long to get this trade done, more on that below, and as per usual, I have some Patrick Kane trade thoughts.

1. First and foremost, the off ice issues with Kane are not to be ignored. They are serious off ice issues and this trade has upset a large number of fans, and rightfully so. We covered our thoughts on Live From the Blue Seats, which released this morning. I can’t put it better than Becky did, so you should listen. I’m not going to re-hash it here.

If you’re interested, we start that discussion around 25 minutes into the podcast, embedded below.

2a. I incorrectly called this trade a steal. It is not a steal. The Rangers will, at worst, give up 1st, 3rd, and 4th round picks. The 1st rounder isn’t in 2023, which is good. The Rangers also had to give up Vitali Kravtsov for peanuts to clear the cap space, plus have played with less than 18 skaters the last few games and will continue to do so for at least one more game tonight.

Pure cost was lower than market value, which was expected given the circumstances. Still, it wasn’t a terrible return for Chicago, and the Rangers did have to sacrifice more than just the picks, losing out on what could have been a better return for Kravtsov at the draft. But that is the cost of doing business in the NHL.

2b. If there was a bidding war, Kane would have fetched much more in a trade.

3. With Kane and Vladimir Tarasenko in tow, the Rangers went from Kaapo Kakko-Vitali Kravtsov-Jimmy Vesey-Julien Gauthier at RW to Kane-Tarasenko-Kakko-Vesey. Add that to Chris Kreider-Artemi Panarin-Alexis Lafreniere-Tyler Motte and Mika Zibanejad-Vincent Trocheck-Filip Chytil-Barclay Goodrow, and you have arguably the best and deepest group of forwards headed into the playoffs. This is easily the best group of forwards in recent Rangers history as well.

4. As for where Kane and Tarasenko will slot in, it’s expected Kane will play with Panarin and Trocheck initially. Kane and Panarin had great chemistry in Chicago, so this is the logical first step. However that line will simply not play defense, or it will rely solely on Trocheck to back check and provide defensive zone coverage. If the line isn’t sheltered –and the kids will likely get those sheltered minutes– then they might get eaten alive defensively. It worked 7 years ago, it may not work today.

5. The best complementary skills are to put Kane with Zibanejad and Kreider, adding an east-west and elite slot line passer to their primarily north-south game. Kane may not be the offensive driver he was, but he’s still an elite passer. That leaves Tarasenko, who is a bit better play driver with and without the puck, to balance out Panarin/Trocheck a bit.

6. This trade no doubt makes the Rangers better. Tampa was able to shut them down in the Eastern Conference Final because they couldn’t generate sustained and consistent offense. Anthony Cirelli took out the Zibanejad line, the Panarin line was notoriously one-and-done all year, which led to them getting pinned by a more well rounded team. The Kid Line was the only line that generated chances because of the matchups. Tampa forced the kids to beat them, and they couldn’t.

Now with Kane (and Tarasenko) in tow, the kids get to remain together, build on their chemistry, and feast on weaker competition. The top six will get tougher minutes, but now have complementary skill sets designed to generate offense in multiple ways. They can carry in, get chances off the rush, or dump and chase.

7. Adding Kane to Tarasenko also creates a matchup nightmare for opposing teams. It’s safe to assume the kids won’t get top defensive competition. So that leaves teams needing to match up their best defensive players against one of Kreider-Zibanejad-Kane or Panarin-Trocheck-Tarasenko. Pick your poison, really.

Looking at the Devils, will Dougie Hamilton/Jonas Siegenthaler get the Zibanejad line? Does that mean Panarin and Tarasenko get Ryan Graves? That’s a mismatch. The kids get Damon Severson? Another mismatch.

Up front, Erik Haula/Jesper Boqvist are probably the Devils version of a shutdown line with Ondrej Palat. The same questions apply here. Do they get Panarin or Zibanejad? Nico Hischier and Tomas Tatar are solid two way players, do they get the other Rangers line? Are the Devils willing to sacrifice a top-six scoring line as a shutdown line?

I’m not saying it can’t be done, but it certainly makes things much more challenging.

And even if it can be done, who is going up against the Kid Line, with three first round picks and two top-2 picks? The Rangers are deep enough to make a run without breaking up the Kid Line now.

8. Kane is not what he was, we all know that. We all know the public xG models aren’t kind to him. We’ve seen that the microstats have nosedived. The big question is whether or not it’s a blip because the Blackhawks are awful this year. Max Domi, who has hit 20 goals just once in his career, is their leading goal scorer (18). No matter which line he plays on, Kane will be playing with two linemates who have more goals than Domi.

9. It’s hard to argue that the Rangers aren’t an improved team with Kane in the mix. Jimmy Vesey goes to the fourth line and solidifies a much needed shutdown line, while the Rangers get more skill in the top six. On paper, they are better. We will see how that translates to on-ice play.

Also, expect Kane to struggle a bit after the initial adrenaline rush wears off. He, like Tarasenko, has played his entire career in one city. He’s learning a new city, new teammates, new systems, and new coaches. That takes time.