When should we worry about Igor Shesterkin?

Is it time to worry about Igor Shesterkin? The front runner for the Vezina has had a rough stretch the last eight games, not including last night against the Flyers. He’s posted sub-.900 SV% games four times in those eight games, and has looked downright bad in a few of them. He certainly hasn’t been the Hart Trophy candidate that we’ve become accustomed to, and that was expected, but this hard crash down to Earth is a bit jarring.

To level set expectations, before this crash we were seeing historic numbers from Shesterkin. Solely based off numbers, it is not time to worry about Igor Shesterkin. However recency bias is a thing that we have to account for, and recently, Shetserkin simply hasn’t been Shesterkin. Some would argue he’s been closer to Alex Georgiev than Shesterkin, although that might be a bit hyperbolic.

What we do tend to ignore is the beauties in this stretch of play. Sprinkled in this eight game stretch is a 28 save win over Tampa, a 20 save win (21 shots) over Pittsburgh, and a 26 save performance in a 2-1 loss to the Isles.

What could be causing this?

While it is unlikely these are related, Shesterkin immediately posted two bad starts following the 45 save masterclass against Winnipeg on March 6th. That’s a whole lotta shots, and it capped a string where Shesterkin saw 30+ shots in 11 of 12 games dating back to January 24.

In that span of 12 games from January 24 to March 6, Shesterkin stopped an astounding 397 of 417 shots for a .952 SV%. That’s absolutely ridiculous and entirely unsustainable for an entire season. What is a bit more concerning was the workload, as even with the February break, that’s a lot of high quality shots to face in a short amount of time.

There is certainly a fatigue factor at play, as Shayna points out. He’s never had to play a full NHL season, and the most games he’s played in a season is 39. When you factor in all the shots, it’s easy to see how the guy can just simply be gassed. It’s why managing Shesterkin’s workload is the single most important key to April.

Beyond the games factor is the schedule. This is likely the first time Shesterkin has been asked to play almost every other night for an extended period of time. In the KHL he split time with Ilya Sorokin. In the NHL he’s had injuries, Covid pauses, more Covid pauses, and then another injury.

So should we worry about Igor Shesterkin?

It’s likely premature to worry about Igor Shesterkin. No one can hold up the pace he was playing at, it’s impossible. Again, those were historic numbers. Not great. Not fantastic. Historic. Had he kept it up, he’d be in the record books and a likely shoo-in for the Hart Trophy too, despite the heroics from Auston Matthews.

This is likely a combination of fatigue, as Shayna noted, and him just regressing to the mean. Remember, he’s posted some solid games in this stretch. To ensure it’s more of the latter, the Rangers do need to manage his workload. That said, this is certainly something to keep an eye on. Fatigue isn’t something that can just correct itself for the playoffs, especially with the Rangers playing close to every other night.

What works in the Rangers favor is the schedule. They do play often, but they also don’t play many high quality teams. More work for Alex Georgiev is likely the right move, to both keep him sharp and keep Shesterkin rested.