A glimpse into how the Metro Division is shaping up

The NY Rangers are off to a better start than expected, with a 4-2-1 start despite missing one-third of their top six forwards. That is good for 4th in the Metro Division. It’s way too early to draw any conclusion about standings, but we can get an idea of how each team is looking. We might also get an idea of which teams are better or worse than their records might indicate.

The Good in the Metro Division

The Carolina Hurricanes have certainly figured out how to win regularly with good process. Their 6-0-0 start is reflective of that, but they will not continue at that pace. Sorry Canes fans, you don’t go undefeated this year. They are always a threat, and while the goaltending won’t continue at that pace, expect the Canes to stick around near the top of the Metro Division.

I expect Washington and Philly to remain in the conversation, but for some reason I’m not that high on either of them. The Caps are old and injured, and have relied on the loser point for 27% of their points so far. The Flyers are not good defensively, and are doing the typical Alain Vigneault of relying on goaltending. The difference is that, as of now, the Caps have the possession numbers to show they belong, while the Flyers are actually behind the Rangers and Islanders right now.

Reminder: small sample size warning.

The Bad in the Metro Division

It is great to see the Isles and the Devils as the bottom two teams, even if temporary. Adding to this is the Penguins at third worst in the Metro Division. None of this will stick, but it puts a smile on our faces on a gloomy Friday morning.

The other bad in the Metro Division, right now, is on the Rangers. They have the worse offensive output by far of any team. On the surface, that is bad. However most of that comes from injuries and subsequent changes to the powerplay. The offense won’t remain dormant forever, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Predictions for the future of the Metro Division

The “bold” prediction is that the Isles won’t remain in the cellar much longer. That’s not too bold, since they are likely a playoff team, but they are too good and too well coached to sit in the bottom forever. Using JFresh’s model and standings predictions (as of 10/24), the Rangers are still poised to win the Metro Division:

These models factor in expected puck possession numbers and regression to the mean, thus the shooting percentages are being accounted for. The model still projects the Rangers to figure things out. My guess is, and this is a pure guess, banking points and figuring things out defensively has made the Rangers look better, since the offense won’t be silent much longer.

What is interesting is this still has the Caps and Isles missing the playoffs, with the Flyers and Penguins moving up from the current standings. I just don’t see that happening, but it is my own personal opinion. As always, take projections with a grain of salt, as there is always a pretty significant +/- with the points projections. I believe it’s six or so points, which can result in a wild swing.

The Rangers have banked points. This keeps them relevant in the Metro Division while they figure out the roster turnover, new systems, and manage injuries. That’s the good news. The bad news is that their offense is asleep, and they are still inconsistent while they make these adjustments. The big picture outlook is good, even if the short term results have been mixed.