7 Thoughts from 7 Days: The calm before the storm

For a couple months, I’ve been piggybacking off Elliotte Friedman and our own Brandon Cohen on this weekly thought post. While I’d usually do these ad-hoc, I liked the idea of consistency and a common theme. There wasn’t much to discuss this week, so let’s talk about what to expect in the coming weeks leading up to the expansion draft, the 2021 NHL Draft, and free agency.

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1. Aside from hiring Gerard Gallant, the Rangers have been relatively quiet for a while now. No assistant coaches, no assistant GMs, no news on player signings aside from Nils Lundvist. It truly is the calm before the storm for the Rangers. The next major date is July 17, when expansion draft protection lists are due. There aren’t many surprises for the Rangers heading into the expansion draft, and the only two choices left are the 7th forward spot (between Colin Blackwell, Brett Howden, and Julien Gauthier) and the 3rd defense spot (Libor Hajek?). I don’t know if we will get assistant coaches and GMs before the expansion draft lists are public, but logically speaking it does make some level of sense.

2. That last defense protection spot is very intriguing, and I’d like to see the Rangers to do something with it. Protecting Hajek makes little sense, since Seattle isn’t going to take him with the forwards that will be available. So what’s the point in protecting him? I’ve mentioned the Rangers can be creative, and perhaps do a wink-wink-nudge-nudge swap with a team that has an extra forward protection slot, but needs a 4th defenseman protected. They can also perhaps get creative in selling it for a draft pick or two. But in the end, I don’t think the Rangers will be that creative. The most creative thing I can see them doing is trading for a 3LD to protect. They need a stopgap and perhaps some veteran leadership in addition to Jacob Trouba.

3. One last bit on the expansion draft: Don’t expect this to go down the way the Vegas expansion draft did. Seattle isn’t going to turn into a contender overnight, mostly because Dale Tallon isn’t giving away half his team for peanuts. That said, the flat cap wrinkle makes things different. There’s value in dumping a bad contract, perhaps for more of a return than Vegas received for “not selecting” some players during their expansion draft. Perhaps Seattle takes the approach of accumulating future picks and punts a season or two. They could build a long term pipe of solid prospects.

4. As for the Rangers, I think they are going to be active. The talk is Jack Eichel, but that seemed to be more of a Jeff Gorton thing. That doesn’t mean Drury isn’t actively pursuing him, it just means he may not be as all in as Gorton. Expect him to explore other avenues, like perhaps Elias Lindholm from Calgary if they decide to blow things up. He won’t come cheap, but he could be someone who complements Mika Zibanejad as a solid 2C with a more stable future than Ryan Strome. It also likely means that the Rangers can continue with Filip Chytil as the 3C, giving them continued depth down the middle. I’ve been pushing Lindholm, but I do think he or an option like him would be a good alternative if the Eichel price is too much.

5. Depth matters. And as much as I’d love to see the Rangers solidify their top centers for the long-term, the 4C issue is still there as long as Brett Howden is expected to fill that role. It is beating a dead horse, but the argument that a 4C doesn’t matter has been debunked time and time again. Guys like Pat Maroon, whom people advocate for, are usually fourth liners. There’s nothing wrong with a Blackwell-Rooney-Gauthier 4th line. It’s when you insert a huge net negative, be it Howden or someone else, that the fourth line becomes useless. Adding that player to the PK compounds the issue. The biggest concerns on this year’s team were the fourth line and third pair. These spots matter, and overlooking them will spell doom.

6. If there is a year to trade the #15 pick, this is the year. There are solid draft prospects for sure, but the #15 pick probably holds more value as a trade chip. If the difference between landing Lindholm or Eichel is including the pick, then it should be a no-brainer. Last year, when the #1 overall pick for Eichel was a deal breaker, was a different story. There’s no need to force a deal, but the pick should 100% be in play. The Rangers have more than enough depth to trade from their prospect pool and draft picks and still not gut the system. This is the year to turn the corner into a contender.

7. The Rangers have 28/1 odds to win the Stanley Cup next year. Assuming the direction continues, and the Rangers make the appropriate moves, then those odds might actually be a good bet. The Beasts of the East (Pittsburgh, Washington, Boston) are aging. It’s time for a new era in the East, and the Rangers are rising to be a part of that new wave. Hot goaltending at the right time carries a team, and the Rangers may have the best goalie in the bunch with Igor Shesterkin. The right coach, the right timing, and a hot goalie are the trifecta.