The Rangers have done a tremendous job building a young team that has the potential to flourish long term. Some of it has been luck, specifically winning the draft lottery twice, but most of it has been through tremendous drafting. If you look at the Rangers draft history since 2017 to now, there are a lot of solid picks. But, even if every pick is a hit, there’s no way the Rangers can keep every single pick.
Looking at the Rangers roster today, I’d say that the Rangers have five forward spots –3RW, fourth line, Strome– that are filled today that are not part of the long term plan. A fourth line is usually never in the long-term plans, as that is generally a role playing line. Your long term prospects are skill guys.
*-Before you jump down my throat on Strome, remember the Rangers tried to trade him this summer. That plan may have changed, given the lack of center depth, but I still think the Rangers look to upgrade at center.
On defense, there are just two spots that are considered “available,” both on the third pair. Maybe a third opens up if the Rangers truly think Jacob Trouba’s contract is going to be an issue.
Waiting in the wings, the Rangers have a slew of high talent prospects. Most of these guys are on defense. Up front it’s Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, and Lauri Pajuniemi. On the back-end it’s Nils Lundkvist, Matthew Robertson, Braden Schneider, Zac Jones, and Hunter Skinner. And these are just the guys who are considered the cream of the crop.
There just aren’t enough roster spots, especially on defense, for every single prospect to make the team. If you assume Kravtsov and Barron make the team next year, where does Pajuniemi fit? If you assume the Rangers keep their top-four defensemen, then who of Lundkvist / Robertson / Schneider is the odd man out?
Value versus Role
This is a big topic which has no right answer. What is the value of a Lauri Pajuniemi, who lit up Liiga this year, in a trade versus his perceived role on the Rangers? Is Pajuniemi as a 4th line winger on an ELC worth more to the Rangers than trading him to upgrade at center?
The same question applies to the big three defense prospects. Are they worth more in a trade for a big upgrade than they are as a bottom pairing, no PP defenseman? These are the kinds of questions that are going to fuel Jeff Gorton’s offseason moves.
Balancing the salary cap
The Rangers don’t have salary cap issues for a few seasons, so this is more of a big picture view. Their first big salary cap decision will come with Mika Zibanejad’s next contract, but that’s less about the kids and more about Mika being 29 when his next deal comes up. Terms of that deal will matter, especially if the Rangers do go out and acquire a big dollar center.
For the sake of this post, let’s assume the Rangers either keep Mika or trade for an expensive center. Not both.
The next potential salary cap issue comes when both Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller are due next contracts in 2023-2024. By then, every other major prospect is on their second contract. At that point in time, the Rangers might need to shed some second and third contracts.
So it’s not just about which kids are going to be in their current roles, but when they will get to their potential roles. Timing on their entry level contracts matters.
It’s just not possible for the Rangers to keep everyone. It would be incredibly poor asset management. If anything, this is why it might be reasonable to expect a big trade this offseason. Time will tell how Jeff Gorton manages this. There are no easy decisions.
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