— Rick Dhaliwal (@DhaliwalSports) July 10, 2020
Boeser’s situation is similar to Gaudreau’s. He’s a winger with two years remaining before he contract expires. However unlike Gaudreau, Boeser will be a restricted free agent, albeit with arbitration rights. He also doesn’t come with a near-100 point campaign. On the surface, that means lesser cost and presumably fewer dollars to keep him signed. Again like Gaudreau, the concern is cost and fit.
Much like with Gaudreau, Boeser’s fit in New York is questioned because he is a winger. At the very least he is a RW, which isn’t nearly as strong as the Panarin-Kreider punch on the left side. However fit also means future considerations, and Boeser comes with a bit of a conundrum.
Boeser may be a RFA, but his contract was backloaded. He is due $7.5 million in his contract year, which means his qualifying offer is $7.5 million. Can the Rangers afford to pay a 40-50 point RW $7 million as a starting point? That’s more than Kreider for the same production. That is the kind of contract that can sink a rebuild.
While the financial cost of Boeser may be tough to stomach, at least the trade cost is a little more manageable. Boeser is not Gaudreau, so these conversations don’t begin with Adam Fox or Kaapo Kakko. They begin with the next level down.
There is a comparable to use here, and that’s the JT Miller trade from Tampa to Vancouver. Vancouver paid 1st and 3rd rounders for Miller. Tampa couldn’t take back salary. In a flat cap era, it’s unlikely many teams want to take back salary, but the Rangers will need to send something back to make this work.
Alex Georgiev is again a likely piece in this theoretical deal, as Vancouver needs a goalie. There’s a chance that Georgiev and a 1st rounder gets it done for Boeser.
Does it make sense?
This is an interesting one because Boeser’s next deal is the concern, not the current one. There is a fit for Boeser as a middle-six RW behind Pavel Buchnevich. A 50-point winger who is solid defensively has value for a team looking to turn the corner on a rebuild.
That said, Boeser’s next contract is a doozy. That contract is going to be a tough sell, since $7 million is 1RW money, and Boeser is more of a 2RW. The expected flat cap for the foreseeable future doesn’t help in that situation either. This doesn’t seem like the right timing.