A wild thought: Targeting Brayden Point over Artemi Panarin

Disclaimer: Offer sheets never happen, and Tampa will 99% match any offer sheet to Point. Still a fun exercise.

As July 1 approaches, all focus is on Artemi Panarin. As the best UFA on the market, he’s targeting upwards of $12 million a year on a seven year deal, and will likely get that. The Rangers appear to be Panarin or bust, which makes sense, but also means major changes for the roster to clear the cap space. That means jettisoning Chris Kreider in some aspect.

However Panarin, despite his elite talent, is a winger. The Rangers are flush with wingers, and have a pair that will probably qualify for “elite skill” in the near future. What they lack right now is center depth. Mika Zibanejad is the 1C, but the 2C spot appears to be Filip Chytil’s to lose right now, depending on how the rest of free agency goes. There are some frugal options out there that are stopgaps until Chytil grows into the role, but that’s no guarantee.

I proposed this on Twitter and got a mixed reaction, most likely because I got the RFA compensation wrong. But let’s analyze this in more than 280 characters.

https://twitter.com/BlueSeatBlogs/status/1144616842390069248

Aside from the compensation piece, which in this scenario is 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd, which the Rangers cannot do right now because of the Adam Fox deal, it’s a move to address center needs over winger desires. Let’s make this five years and $10.6 million annually, so that the compensation is four first rounders, ok? Ok.

First things first, if you’re going after Point, you are expecting that your first round picks are going to be in the 16+ range, meaning no lottery chances. That’s an important factor, as the biggest concern would be accidentally Phil Kesseling yourself and giving up the 2nd overall pick. Given the talent on the Rangers right now, adding Point to the already loaded forward group may be enough to get them into the playoffs. Which in this scenario is critical.

Second, let’s consider the four first round picks. The odds of one of them turning into Brayden Point, who is a 23 year old 1C who put up 40 goals and 90 points last season, one year after a 30 goal, 60 point campaign. The same logic for the Fox deal applies. You’re getting a guaranteed talent, when the pick could be but most likely won’t be. A boat is a boat, but the mystery box could be anything, even a boat! If accelerating the rebuild is a key point, then this makes sense for the Rangers.

Third, let’s consider who Point is. He’s not a guy that is riding the coattails of Nikita Kucherov or Steven Stamkos. Sure playing with them doesn’t hurt, but he’s an elite 1C in his own right. His xGF% last year was 53.25% (2.82 xGF/60 – 1st on Tampa, 2.47 xGA/60 – 11th on Tampa) with a GF% of 61.54%, so there will be some regression in terms of overall success while on the ice next year, since that is a huge difference. However it’s not like he was under 50% in xGF%, so he’s no slouch. The big thing is the Bolts shot 10.75% with him on the ice this year, and that will certainly regress with the Rangers. Individually, Point shot 21.5% last season, a 7% increase from his prior two years of 14.7%. Let’s assume the point totals come down a bit, but remain at around a point per game. I’d also assume more goals go in while he’s on the ice this year as well. For what it’s worth, he wins 50% of his faceoffs.

The key for the Rangers is adding center depth and balancing out the roster while also not assuming a 20 year old second year pro can take the 2C role right away. Chytil is a potential elite talent, but imagine, for a second, Point and Zibanejad as your 1/2C, with Chytil as your 3C in sheltered usage to gain confidence. You can move any of them to wing if need be to really load up that top-six.

At 23 years old, a five year deal brings him to 28, which is right on the cusp of a player’s decline phase (usually). It’s a big contract, but it’s also smaller than Panarin’s and Point is also five years younger.

But I want to throw in one other piece to consider, and that is the RFA compensation. That is calculated based on a five year deal, so even if the contract is longer, the AAV for compensation purposes is divided by five. For the Rangers, they can flex their muscles here. Offer Point seven years at $9 million, something Tampa will be hard pressed to match beyond this year because they have Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, and Andrei Vasilevskiy all due for big raises after next season. Even with the JT Miller trade and Ryan Callahan to LTIR, it’s difficult for them to meet $9 million beyond this year.

The Rangers can front load that deal, giving a large percentage of it in signing bonuses, flexing their financial clout. The compensation would still be four 1st rounders, since the total value of the contract is $63 million, which divided by five years is $12.6 million. It’s a little confusing, but it’s a little nugget that actually helps the Rangers here.

In the end, Tampa likely matches any offer sheet for Point. Also, it’s unlikely any offer sheet actually happens. But this is a route I might actually prefer over Panarin. What say you?