A lot of talk has been made, especially here, about the upcoming offseason, and the plethora of RFAs the Rangers will have to resign. This is a hot topic, as the Rangers have some bulky contracts that will severely limit their ability to make big moves.

Let’s first look at who is signed for next season, all salary data courtesy of NHLNumbers (numbers in parentheses represent the cap hit):

  • Scott Gomez ($7.357 million)
  • Chris Drury ($7.05 million)
  • Markus Naslund ($4 million)
  • Sean Avery ($1.938 million)
  • Aaron Voros ($1 million)
  • Wade Redden ($6.5 million)
  • Michael Rozsival ($5 million)
  • Dan Girardi ($1.55 million)
  • Marc Staal ($827,000)
  • Henrik Lundqvist ($6.875 million)

Total: 10 players ($42.097 million)

Now, assuming the cap stays the same ($56.7 million), the Rangers will have $14.603 million in cap space remaining for 10-12 players, an average of $1.17 million to spend per player. The players listed below are the players on the current roster that will be free agents (numbers in parentheses represent the current cap hit):

  • UFAs:
    • Blair Betts ($615,000)
    • Colton Orr ($537,000)
    • Nik Antropov ($2.05 million)
    • Paul Mara ($1.95 million)
    • Derek Morris ($3.917 million)
    • Steve Valliquette ($725,000)
  • RFAs:
    • Nikolai Zherdev ($2.5 million)
    • Lauri Korpikoski ($1.018 million)
    • Ryan Callahan ($575,000)
    • Frederick Sjostrom ($840,000)
    • Brandon Dubinsky ($633,000)

From these players, it’s safe to assume that Derek Morris is the only one that the Rangers will not attempt to resign. Each of the remaining UFAs can probably be had for roughly a 10% raise on their current contract (which is the league mandated minimum for RFAs, so the logic can apply here). So let’s run through those players and numbers:

  • Blair Betts ($700,000)
  • Colton Orr ($600,000)
  • Paul Mara ($2.05 million)
  • Steve Valliquette ($805,000)

For now, let’s leave Nik Antropov for the end, as he will be a special case that does not apply to this logic.

The total spent on the current Ranger UFAs is $4.155 million. When adding that to the salaries of the current Rangers under contract, you get $46.252 million. Glen Sather has just under $10.5 million to use on his RFAs and Nik Antropov, if he decides to resign Antro.

Now, on to the RFAs, which are interesting cases. The league minimum increase is 10%, which is safe to assume that only Korpo and Sjoe will be getting the minimum, just based on performance/results. As for the Cally/Dubi duo, it’s tough to guess what they are worth. Based on current contract trends of players of their production levels, only an estimate can be made:

  • Lauri Korpikoski ($1.1 million) – Korpo’s cap number in the 2008-2009 season was high because of his bonus, his salary was actually in the $980,000 range.
  • Freddy Sjostrom ($920,000)
  • Ryan Callahan ($750,000)
  • Brandon Dubinsky ($1 million)

Let’s also leave Zherdev for the end, as his contract is going to wind up similar to Antropov’s.

The total money spent on the RFAs, not including Zherdev, is $3.77 million. Adding that to the running total, you get $50.022 million. That leaves Sather with roughly $6.5 million to spend on Zherdev/Antropov.

Mike did a great analysis on finding comparable contracts for Zherdev. Using this logic, you have to assume that Zherdev will request somewhere along the lines of 5-6 years, for anywhere from $20-$24 million, which leads to a cap hit of anywhere from $4-$4.5 million. Let’s take the higher estimate here, and assume Zherdev will take a cap hit of $4.5 million. Adding that to the running total, you get $54.522 million. Leaving Sather with roughly $2 million under the cap.

Simply put, Antropov will be siging for a contract that is worth a little more than Zherdev’s contract, so $2 million is not enough to keep him around.

So, we have 19 players totaling $54.522 million, with one spot open on the top three lines (assuming Voros is still the scratch), and one defensive spot open. The forward spot clearly goes to Artem Anisimov, and his cap hit of $822,000, bringing the grand total to $55.344 million, leaving around $1.3 million of wiggle room. That $1.3 million can be used to bring in a lower tier FA, or, if he is NHL ready, Bobby Sanguinetti and his $855,000 cap hit.

That’s 21 players (13 forwards, 6 defense, 2 goalies). Barring trades of significant salaries, this is a strong possibility of what the team will look like next year.

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