For those of you who have been here a while, you know that we like to go deeper into the #fancystats and analyze how the numbers complement what we see on the ice. Most of our analysis is focused on quality of competition, puck possession (Corsi/Fenwick), and zone starts. One stat that we are also fans of is GVT (Goals Versus Threshold) and PVT (Points Versus Threshold). You can read more on all of the stats we use here.
We haven’t spent much time, if any, talking about how the Rangers rank in GVT. There are a few reasons behind that. The first is we were victimized by small sample size in the early going. The second is that the Rangers got off to such a horrendous start that we needed to wait until the averages started balancing out before getting true value from the stat.
For those who don’t want to read a long post on GVT, it can be summarized as the amount of goals a player is worth over a replacement player (Aaron Johnson, Darroll Powe, or any other injury replacement). It is a bit like WAR in baseball. The only difference is that WAR measures wins, and GVT measures goals. That’s why I use PVT, using the commonly accepted rule that three goals is the equivalent of one point in the standings.
So where do the Rangers rank?
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A quick overview of the stats in the table:
- OGVT – Offensive GVT
- DGVT – Defensive GVT
- SGVT – Shootout GVT
- GVT – OGVT+DGVT+SGVT
- PVT – GVT/3
- Rank – Where each player ranks in relation to the rest of the league
Perhaps the most glaring observation made here is the position of The King. Hank usually fares well with GVT, as goaltenders are usually amongst the league leaders in this category, especially the elite ones. Hank’s rough start has him at the bottom of the league. His early season play wasn’t even replacement level. Of course that has changed recently, and we expect him to start climbing the ranks very quickly.
Not surprisingly, the best skater on the Rangers thus far is McDonagh. Mac has taken advantage of a sharp increase in powerplay time, adding offense to his shutdown defensive game. If the Norris Trophy wasn’t a points-only award, McDonagh would be a perennial candidate.
GVT/PVT are two stats that generally match up to the eye-test fairly well. The three most consistent skaters this season have been McDonagh, Zuccarello, and Kreider. They are the top three in GVT and PVT for this club. Talbot has been stellar, and he’s the top player for the Rangers.
One thing to keep in mind: GVT is a counting stat, thus the more games played, the higher (or lower) the number. This affects both Nash and Callahan, who have lower than average –for their careers– GVT because they’ve missed significant time with injuries.
GVT and PVT are another way of looking at how the individual Rangers are performing on the ice. Many people make the argument that hockey lacks the one “WAR” stat that measures how each player affects the overall standings. GVT, and in turn PVT, are the first step in the process.