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Jan
21

Looking at the Rangers GVT/PVT leaders

January 21, 2014, by
Your GVT/PVT leader (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

Your GVT/PVT leader (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)

For those of you who have been here a while, you know that we like to go deeper into the #fancystats and analyze how the numbers complement what we see on the ice. Most of our analysis is focused on quality of competition, puck possession (Corsi/Fenwick), and zone starts. One stat that we are also fans of is GVT (Goals Versus Threshold) and PVT (Points Versus Threshold). You can read more on all of the stats we use here.

We haven’t spent much time, if any, talking about how the Rangers rank in GVT. There are a few reasons behind that. The first is we were victimized by small sample size in the early going. The second is that the Rangers got off to such a horrendous start that we needed to wait until the averages started balancing out before getting true value from the stat.

For those who don’t want to read a long post on GVT, it can be summarized as the amount of goals a player is worth over a replacement player (Aaron Johnson, Darroll Powe, or any other injury replacement). It is a bit like WAR in baseball. The only difference is that WAR measures wins, and GVT measures goals. That’s why I use PVT, using the commonly accepted rule that three goals is the equivalent of one point in the standings.

So where do the Rangers rank?

Rk Player Pos GP OGVT DGVT SGVT GVT PVT
48 Cam Talbot G 14 8.6 0.4 0 9 3.0
50 Ryan McDonagh D 46 4.3 4.4 0 8.7 2.9
113 Mats Zuccarello F 45 5.1 1 0.4 6.4 2.1
115 Chris Kreider F 39 4.1 2.2 0 6.3 2.1
164 Brad Richards F 46 3 1.1 1 5 1.7
187 Dan Girardi D 46 0.2 4.4 0 4.6 1.5
196 Carl Hagelin F 36 2.4 2.1 0 4.5 1.5
206 Derek Stepan F 46 2.6 1.7 0 4.3 1.4
280 Ryan Callahan F 29 1.4 1.9 0 3.4 1.1
305 Benoit Pouliot F 44 1.8 0.8 0.3 3 1.0
342 Rick Nash F 29 2.8 1.1 -1.2 2.6 0.9
380 Brian Boyle F 46 -0.7 2.7 0 2 0.7
395 Derick Brassard F 45 2.1 0.1 -0.3 1.9 0.6
415 John Moore D 44 0.2 1.6 0 1.7 0.6
456 Dominic Moore F 38 -0.9 1.9 0.3 1.4 0.5
468 Michael Del Zotto D 36 0.2 1 0 1.2 0.4
490 Marc Staal D 36 -0.3 1.3 0 1 0.3
570 Derek Dorsett F 37 -0.7 1.1 0 0.4 0.1
602 Anton Stralman D 45 -2 2.2 0 0.2 0.1
721 Justin Falk D 20 -0.2 -0.1 0 -0.3 -0.1
794 J.T. Miller F 25 -0.6 -0.2 0 -0.8 -0.3
828 Daniel Carcillo F 28 -1.6 0.4 0 -1.2 -0.4
838 Henrik Lundqvist G 34 -1 0.1 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5

A quick overview of the stats in the table:

  • OGVT – Offensive GVT
  • DGVT – Defensive GVT
  • SGVT – Shootout GVT
  • GVT – OGVT+DGVT+SGVT
  • PVT – GVT/3
  • Rank – Where each player ranks in relation to the rest of the league

Perhaps the most glaring observation made here is the position of The King. Hank usually fares well with GVT, as goaltenders are usually amongst the league leaders in this category, especially the elite ones. Hank’s rough start has him at the bottom of the league. His early season play wasn’t even replacement level. Of course that has changed recently, and we expect him to start climbing the ranks very quickly.

Not surprisingly, the best skater on the Rangers thus far is McDonagh. Mac has taken advantage of a sharp increase in powerplay time, adding offense to his shutdown defensive game. If the Norris Trophy wasn’t a points-only award, McDonagh would be a perennial candidate.

GVT/PVT are two stats that generally match up to the eye-test fairly well. The three most consistent skaters this season have been McDonagh, Zuccarello, and Kreider. They are the top three in GVT and PVT for this club. Talbot has been stellar, and he’s the top player for the Rangers.

One thing to keep in mind: GVT is a counting stat, thus the more games played, the higher (or lower) the number. This affects both Nash and Callahan, who have lower than average –for their careers– GVT because they’ve missed significant time with injuries.

GVT and PVT are another way of looking at how the individual Rangers are performing on the ice. Many people make the argument that hockey lacks the one “WAR” stat that measures how each player affects the overall standings. GVT, and in turn PVT, are the first step in the process.

Categories : Analysis

17 comments

  1. SalMerc says:

    To me, some other glaring negatives are Marc Stall and Dorsett. I think Stall is playing a step or 2 slower than before, and I also feel Dorsett had his 15 minutes of fame.  When we talk about trades, these guys need to move to the top of that list.

    • Dave says:

      Staal certainly struggled in the early going, but he’s turned it on of late. A lot of the players are going to be lower than normal because of that slow start.

      As for Dorsett, this stat isn’t usually kind to role players like him and Stralman. It understates their value a bit. Just my opinion. 

      • SalMerc says:

        I still feel Stall has slowed down too much lately. Complementary players usually have poor numbers, but anyone on our top 3 lines shouldn’t have horrible numbers this year.

        • Dave says:

          Staal’s been playing like a top pairing guy lately. His game has turned around with the rest of the team.

        • Centerman21 says:

          The top 3 lines played the 1st month of the season. That 3-7 stretch of road games and the home opener. Did you watch any of those games? Or how about the month of December? Did you watch any of those bland games? The team took it’s time molding to AV’s system. It has changed the last 10 games or so. Look at those stats after the last 32 games.

  2. Chris F says:

    Thanks, Dave.

    I’m still a little confused on this. I understand the purpose, i.e. assigning value to individual players’ impact on the standings.

    However, how is it calculated? What constitutes the threshold? And, if it really is a measure of a player’s worth in relation to a replacement player, how is that standardized? How can Kreider’s worth in goals, GVT, for example, be valued equally over both Johnson or Powe, or any other player for that matter?

    Finally, if the inputs are goals (or converted into standing points) how can GVT / PVT apply comparatively to both skaters (O and D) and goalies?

  3. Frank Cerbone says:

    Interesting, since GVT is a counting stat.
    MDZ played on the wrong side up until recently & was benched for 9 gms AFTER Hagelin, Callahan, Nash, & Staal returned.
    However, MDZ is back on the left side the last 6 gms, and Hagelin, Callahan, Nash, & Staal are no longer injured.  Guess what?  MDZ’s numbers have gone from a minus 9, to a minus 4.
    Downside is John Moore has played 9 more gms than MDZ and MDZ has still surpassed Moore in every category except +/- and turnovers per 60 min.  Moore is not comfortable on the right side either, so expect Moore’s stats to deteriorate.
    Both Staal & Stralman have struggled & need to be traded.  Trading Staal will free up money for Rangers to extend Girardi.
    Vigneault/Sather playing games with both Moore & MDZ might be some sort of game plan to diminhs their worth as RFAs.  But I don’t think Sather is that bright.
    Both Moore & MDZ can return to the left side, if Rangers sign RFAs David Savard & Dalton Prout of Columbus.  Both are like 23 yr old 6-2, 6-3, right handed defensemen and not expensive.  Prout has even fought Lucic to a draw and may eliminate the need for McIRath.  Trading McIlrath & some prospect for Prout gives Clolumbus gives Columbus one more year of control with McIlRath.

    • Mark says:

      I think Stralman does ok relative to his cap hit.  As i have written before..What is Staal’s trade value?
       

  4. BenM says:

    “Of course that has changed recently, and we expect him to start climbing the ranks very quickly.”
     
    As of today:
    318 Henrik Lundqvist 37 GP, 3.6 OGVT, 0 DGVT, -0.5 SGVT, 3.1 GVT, 1.0 PVT
     
    Best improvement is Hank (up 4.5 GVT and 520 places). Worst are Stralman (-0.2 GVT and down 51 places) and D. Moore (-0.3 GVT and down 40 places)