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Breaking down the Jeff Carter rumor

Like the Rick Nash rumor, the Jeff Carter rumor came up from a tweet stating that Columbus GM Scott Howson was in attendance at the previous two Rangers games. Carter, recently acquired by Columbus in exchange for Jakub Voracek, a first round pick, and a third round pick, is battling injuries and inconsistency on a CBJ team that can’t seem to buy a win.

Carter was traded from Philadelphia almost immediately after signing an 11-year contract extension, in an attempt by the Flyers to clean house of bad locker room personalities, and long term contracts that would hinder them signing Ilya Bryzgalov.

Signed through the 2021-2022 season at a $5.27 million cap hit, Carter is a big time investment in time and cap space. Carter is a 30 goal scorer on average, but certainly has the talent to eclipse 40 goals a few more times in his career. At 27 years old, Carter is entering his prime, and should continue to product 30 goal seasons as long as he’s healthy.

The problem with Carter is that he is rather vanilla. He has just seven (SEVEN!) hits and only 12 blocked shots all year. He doesn’t back check, doesn’t play defense, and is miserable without the puck. In short, Carter doesn’t appear to fit into the New York style of hockey. He is also another center, of which the Rangers have plenty. The Rangers have had success converting centers to wingers (see: Dubinsky, Brandon; Anisimov, Artem), but that’s a bit of a long shot.

Another issue with Carter: Where would he and his 300 shots on goal per year fit on the Rangers? Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan, Brad Richards, and Derek Stepan all average about 250 shots on net per year, so there may not be enough shots in a game to fit Carter on one of the top two lines. That last bit may be a bit tough to understand, but at some point the Rangers need a power forward who may not take 300 shots, but will crash the net and have a higher shot conversion percentage.

Carter certainly will not cost as much as Nash, but he will still be up there in price. The Jackets gave up a young roster player to land him, plus two draft picks. Expect the price to be roughly the same. Somewhere along the lines of Artem Anisimov, a first round pick, and a mid level prospect to get the job done. That said, Carter doesn’t really fit here, at least in my opinion.

Would be funny though if he does come here, and lights up the Flyers on a regular basis.

*Here is the rest of our Trade Deadline coverage.

15 Responses to “Breaking down the Jeff Carter rumor”

  1. RangerSmurf says:

    Two minor quibbles:

    1)Since when does Stepan take 250 shots? He had 166 last year, on pace for 180 this year. Plus his long-term future is as a passer anyway. I don’t see him even becoming consistently 200, let alone 250.

    2) No argument that he’s not fantastic defensively, but he’s consistently given top defensive assignments (thrice led his team in QoC in BTN era, incl. this year), and has nearly always been a positive Relative Corsi player. He’s doing something right.

    Maybe it’s that he spends enough time in the O.Zone to limit his D. Zone deficiencies, but nobody can be that bad defensively and consistently be positive against the toughs.

    • The Suit says:

      Carter’s passiveness was pretty well publicized while in Philly and rightfully so. I think his numbers were a bit inflated because he was playing with some high quality players…and Philly’s defense, was pretty good at keeping the puck in the zone last year. But back checking, defensive zone coverage? The guy rarely made the effort to make a play.

      Add the extracurricular activities? Torts would eat him alive.

      • RangerSmurf says:

        It was more than last year, it’s every year since 07-08, but I hear you. He would have quality players here as well, FWIW.

        I’m not overly enamored with Carter, but I think given trade cost + cap value + productio, he’s a better overall option than Nash, if we’re in a magical world where only those two are options.

        It’s going to be such a dead market anyway, I’m ok with them standing pat, and just making minor deals like cutting ties with guys like Valentenko, who clearly have no NHL path with us.

        • The Suit says:

          Well backchecking isn’t really something that will come up in stats.

          But yea all of these rumors of big trades seem far fetched and I doubt if any will pan out. With the cba talks looming, I’m sure GM’s are being cautious. Plus Burke has yet to be his usual aggressive self, so the market isn’t even set yet. Might have to hit the snooze button on this year’s deadline.

  2. Shbp says:

    Forget Carter if he is lazy. Maybe he could be used in a three way somehoW?

  3. Zen says:

    Carter is much different story than Nash. If the Rangers do their due diligence on Carter and it turns out the issues surrounding him were not a major problem, then the proposed deal (AA+) is quite enticing… but this team doesn’t need a headache. Especially one that has such a long term commitment.

    Still intrigued though by the cap hit and goals-scored.

  4. Jess says:

    Team is at the top of the NHL, on a pace to reach 117 points better than 93-94 team). Locker room chemistry is best in years and team is poised to get better in next couple of years.

    It is amusing that NYR fans are now the ones who are suggesting the same kinds of moves that they despised Glen Sather for. If this was Sather’s idea there would be lynch mob at MSG.

    Why consider a player who has chokehold contract and has questions about his character in the locker room?

    NYR are finally realizing it is not how much you spend but how wisely you spend it (hello Jeff Gorton Asst GM).

  5. jerry says:

    the last thing we need on this team is a locker room problem.i say leave it alone.

  6. cnp says:

    there shouldnt need to even be a break down on this…you can make a case for nash, but Sather should go nowhere near Carter. Just no.

    • The Suit says:

      There shouldn’t be, but some people seem to want this guy, so we are going to break it down for you.

    • Blueshirt in Paris says:

      I see it the exact opposite. No way you can make a case for Nash but could see why Carter would be a possibility.

  7. rob sahm says:

    no way in hell that contract is way to long and this guy is not a team player. we need bobby ryan if we are going to trade away a guy like anisimov or 1st round draft picks