Dylan Larkin shocked the hockey world yesterday by going public with a trade request from the Detroit Red Wings. The Michigan native appears to be frustrated with the club’s direction and wants to compete and win. Naturally as Rangers fans, the first question that ran through our minds wasn’t about Larkin, but how this can impact the Vincent Trocheck trade cost from Chris Drury. At first, it seemed like this would negatively impact the Rangers, but taking a step back, this may actually be a good thing.
There are two key factors that set Larkin apart from Trocheck and how this may not impact the Trocheck trade cost. First is Larkin’s full no trade clause, which severely limits Detroit’s negotiating power. The second is simply the players themselves. Larkin is a premier 1C and will cost as much. Trocheck is more of a 2C and likely soon to be 3C, so the Trocheck trade cost is going to be significantly lower.
Simply put: There are many teams who won’t be in on Larkin because they either can’t afford him or he won’t waive his no-trade to go there. So while there may be some impact to the Trocheck trade cost, it’s hard to determine since there are unique variables with Larkin. Just look at Artemi Panarin and his pitiful trade return. There’s more to this than just comparing the two players.
Another factor is Trocheck’s no-trade clause. It is 12 teams now, reduced to 10 on July 1. Trocheck has stated he doesn’t want go to the Western Conference. Larkin will likely be fine in the Western Conference, and it’s likely Yzerman’s preference to get him out of the Eastern Conference. Again, since there’s likely little overlap with the two centers, the Trocheck trade cost likely remains the same.
Should the Rangers be in on Dylan Larkin?
After the initial shock and Trocheck trade cost discussion, naturally the conversation shifted to whether the Rangers should be in on Larkin. It’s a two part answer.
Of course Drury should be calling Steve Yzerman on Larkin. It’s part of his job just to see what the acquisition cost will be. Maybe there’s a chance Larkin only wants to go to New York, and that phone call would kick start the negotiations. It’s unlikely, but crazier things have happened.
The second part of the answer is a bit more complicated. Yes the Rangers should be kicking tires, but it’s highly unlikely that 1) Larkin waives to come to the Rangers, and 2) the Rangers have the pieces to pull this off should there be a bidding war.
The Rangers are not a good team and don’t project to be a good team for a couple of years. That timeframe may accelerate a little bit if the Rangers acquire Larkin, but it’ll be a very short window as the pieces the Rangers would likely need to sacrifice–assuming there is a bidding war–would impact their 3-5 year future. Going for Larkin is a win-now move for the Blueshirts, and the pieces needed to make that happen would set them back in the long run.
Again assuming Larkin doesn’t force his way to the Rangers, there isn’t much Drury can offer up to Yzerman that helps the Red Wings recoup assets. Noah Laba is their best center trade chip, as it’s difficult to see Yzerman accepting Trocheck in a trade package like this. After that, the best young pieces right now are Alexis Lafreniere and Gabe Perreault. That’s really it for NHL ready pieces that move the needle in a Larkin trade. There are many competing teams that can offer far more.
If Yzerman accepts futures, than the 5th overall pick is probably a deal breaker for both sides. I just don’t see a fit unless Larkin forces his way to the Rangers.
Prediction: Larkin winds up in Vegas in some kind of flip for Tomas Hertl and William Karlsson. This keeps Detroit’s window open, replaces Larkin with Hertl, and gives them another solid middle six piece. For Vegas, this gives them the best player in the trade and cap space to re-sign Pavel Dorofyev. It makes too much sense.
A wild card: Anaheim in a Mason McTavish swap.
How does this impact the Trocheck trade cost?
The Trocheck trade cost is pretty much set at a young NHL player and a top, close to NHL ready prospect. Since we’ve established there likely won’t be too much overlap between both markets, it’s unlikely the Trocheck trade cost softens. After all many teams are going to be priced out. Larkin will simply refuse to waive his no-trade clause for other teams as well.
For the teams in the East, and potentially the Minnesota Wild, the trade cost is likely the same. It seems Danila Yurov was the breaking point for Minnesota, but with Charlie Stramel signed there’s a chance Yurov is a bit more expendable. Other teams with rumored interest are Boston, Toronto, and possibly Buffalo, but we haven’t heard much about Trocheck in a bit.
All in all, the Trocheck trade cost is likely going to remain the same. There just isn’t enough overlap between the two players to warrant that much of a bidding war. Perhaps the Rangers lucked out a bit.
Related thought: If Larkin’s trade only brings back futures to Detroit, I wonder if Detroit ups its pursuit of Trocheck after moving Larkin.
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