Per Vince Mercogliano (and if you haven’t read his piece on how the Rangers got here, you should), the Colorado Avalanche and Washington Capitals seem to have the inside track on landing Panarin. Nothing is imminent and things always change on a dime, but with both the Avs and Caps viewed as front runners for Panarin, we can dissect what a trade with each time might look like.
Front runners for Panarin change depending on trade return
As we try to guess what the front runners for Panarin would send back in a trade, we are caught between two very legitimate scenarios. The first scenario is that Panarin is only a trade deadline rental, unable to agree to a longer term deal with his new team. The second scenario is Panarin agrees to a contract either in advance of the trade, which changes trade value significantly.
To be clear: Players under contract for ‘X’ number of seasons is far more valuable than rentals. This is where trade packages with the front runners for Panarin will change. Perhaps the primary target team also changes, as both teams can offer different packages depending on Panarin’s situation and Drury’s ask.
The typical package for a rental of Panarin’s magnitude is a high end prospect, a 2026 1st round pick, and since the Rangers would need to retain salary, a 3rd round pick (year doesn’t matter). The package for Panarin with an extension–given Drury’s desire for a quick retool–is likely a young NHL body with potential at a position of need plus more, depending on the quality of the NHL body
Panarin as a rental favors Washington
In terms of pure rentals, Washington would be the better choice among the front runners for Panarin. Colorado doesn’t have any of their first three picks this draft, but does have a 1st rounder and two 2nd rounders in 2027. Their prospect pool is also a bit rough, though Gavin Brindley would be a nice asset. Mikhail Gulyayev is one of their better prospects, but as a 5’10 offensive LHD who isn’t overly physical, he’s probably not what Drury has in mind. Same with LHD Sean Behrens.
Washington, on the other hand, has their 2026 1st round pick and far more prospects to pick from. Starting with the obvious, Ryan Leonard isn’t a realistic ask for a rental. The Rangers will probably get a pick one of Andrew Cristall (LW, 20 years old, AHL), Cole Hutson (LHD, 19 years old, NCAA – Boston), or Ivan Miroschnichenko (LW, soon to be 22 years old, AHL). Smart money is on Miroschnichenko, as both Hutson and Cristall are 5’10”, and deemed “small” even if tremendously skilled, and Miroschnichenko is the closest to NHL ready.
Don’t sleep on Ilya Protas, a top-ten prospect in Washington’s top-ten prospect pool. He has 15-15-30 in 37 AHL games and is enormous at 6’5″ and 200 lbs.
Washington has far better prospects among the front runners for Panarin, if he is just a rental.
Proposed trade: Panarin (no extension, 50% retained) for Miroschnichenko, 2026 1st round pick, 2026 4rd round pick, 2027 4th round pick (Washington doesn’t have a 3rd rounder until 2028).
If extended, Colorado’s chances increase due to Drury’s desire for a quick turnaround
If Panarin agrees to an extension, then Colorado draws far closer to Washington as realistic front runners for Panarin. The Avs have younger players at a position of need for the Rangers, whereas the Caps have maybe 1 NHL player they’d consider moving off the roster for Panarin.
Starting with the Avs, it’s safe to assume that Samuel Girard–a 27 year old top-four defenseman–would be a part of any Panarin trade with an extension. The Avs would need to free up cap space to fit Panarin’s roughly $12 million cap hit, and Girard’s $5 million this year and next is their most movable contract that might entice Drury, even as a smaller defenseman.
To make cap hits work, the Rangers might also need to take Ross Colton’s $4 million salary for next season as well. Colton, 29, doesn’t fit the mold of younger and faster, but he’s a big offensive play driver with 40 point potential. There’s always a need for players like that.
This is where Colorado as one of the front runners for Panarin should be concerning, as their only NHL pieces under 25 years of age are Brindley and Jack Drury. Colton and Girard are fine NHLers, but they don’t fit the timeline for the Rangers retool unless Drury truly rushes this and thinks he can make the Rangers a Cup contender after one year of the retool.
Washington would still offer the better overall package for Panarin, but comes with the added risk of keeping him in the division. It’s safe to assume Drury would land on Aliaksei Protas (not Ilya, mentioned above), as a 20-25 goal, 50-60 point ceiling top-six forward who can play either wing or even center in a pinch. Like his younger brother, Aliaksei is a big kid at 6’6 and 225 lbs, which screams “Drury trade for me,” and may actually keep Washington among the premier front runners for Panarin.
Proposed trade (COL): Panarin (with extension, 50% retained) for Girard, Colton, 2027 1st round pick
or
Proposed trade (WSH): Panarin (extension, 50% retained) for Aliaksei Protas, Hendrix Lapierre, 2026 1st round pick
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