Artemi Panarin is likely the first trade domino to fall for the New York Rangers. He’s also the only player we know for sure the Rangers are trading. With that in mind, we have some interesting rumors surrounding Panarin, as Elliotte Friedman has floated San Jose as a potential team to watch. While Friedman was spitballing, this grew legs. Panarin to San Jose would certainly be surprising, so let’s break this down a bit.

1. The Sharks are buyers. They sent a prospect and two second round picks to Vancouver for Kiefer Sherwood to shore up depth, putting them on the map as buyers. Panarin to San Jose would add another elite talent up front as the Sharks look to compete in a weak Pacific Division, where they currently sit in third place. Despite all their firepower, San Jose only has 152 goals, a distant third to Vegas and Edmonton, both ahead of them in the standings. In theory, there’s a fit.

2. San Jose is a fun team for sure, but they also lack true depth at the moment. Panarin to San Jose, with an extension in place, gives them a bonafide star on the ice to put alongside Macklin Celebrini. On the surface, it makes little sense for the Sharks to trade for Panarin, but there’s a bit more to it. Outside of Celebrini, San Jose’s highest scorer is Alex Wennberg with 10 goals and 33 points. Will Smith missed time and has 31 points in 33 games, but both Colin Graf and William Eklund are under a point per game.

That doesn’t mean Graf and Eklund are bad, it just means they are still developing.

When you dive deeper, Panarin to San Jose does make some sense. San Jose needs more top of the lineup scoring, thus pushing others down in the lineup.

3. In terms of trade cost, Panarin to San Jose would also have an extension with it. That means he’s not a rental, thus the acquisition cost goes up. Immediate comparisons to the Derick Brassard/Mika Zibanejad swap come to mind. The Rangers sent Brassard–the best player in the deal at the time–to Ottawa for Zibanejad and a 2nd round pick. While we know Ottawa didn’t want to pay Zibanejad, at the time seemed to have stagnated in Ottawa and Brassard was seen as the better player at that time.

We all know what happened, as Zibanejad hit his ceiling and the Rangers took a short term hit to find success later. This is important information, as San Jose is looking for an immediate boost, and the Rangers are willing to take a hit now to be better in the future.

4. Would Mike Grier be willing to pony up one of Graf or Eklund for Panarin, plus Edmonton’s 1st round pick this year? The Rangers probably need to add a sweetener to this, perhaps a C prospect or a mid round pick.

But food for thought: What if the Rangers took on Logan Couture’s $8 million cap hit next season? Would that up the ante a bit, and maybe San Jose includes Filip Bystedt, a former 1st round pick and a center?

5. Or perhaps Panarin to San Jose isn’t as straight forward as we think. San Jose certainly needs defensemen. What if the Rangers package Panarin and Braden Schneider? Is that enough to pry Michael Misa (doubtful)? Will Smith? What if it’s all three of Panarin, Schneider, and taking on Couture’s contract? That’s significant trade value.

There are many possibilities here with Panarin to San Jose.

6. There’s certainly a case to be made that Panarin to San Jose would be a good fit. There’s a need, the GMs have history together, and the Sharks have pieces the Rangers would covet. The only wild card is Panarin’s no-move clause and whether he likes the San Jose area, including San Francisco and wine country up there. Few teams have what the Sharks have, which is young talent with high end potential.

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