With all the talk about the fine 5v5 process and their poor shooting luck, it seems the Rangers powerplay issues, or at least a deeper discussion on them, have slipped through the cracks, to use corporate speak. The powerplay has been talked about, but only in terms of their conversion rate (dead last in the NHL at 11.1%). The Rangers are too skilled to have the worst powerplay in the NHL.

Avoiding surface level analysis on the Rangers powerplay issues, there are some real concerns regarding the powerplay structure and personnel, going beyond base level shooting percentage discussion.

Rangers powerplay issues are more than raw shooting percentage

Per Natural Stat Trick, the Rangers in theory are doing the right things. They lead the league in CF/60 with the man advantage at 131.09. They are 6th in the NHL in xG/60 at 10.67. They are 5th in the NHL in HDCF/60 at 36.56, 2nd in MDCF/60 at 41.91, and dead last in SH% (5.41%) and second to last in HDSH% (3.85%). On the surface, it’s about shooting luck.

To be clear, shooting luck is a big part of this. Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, JT Miller, and Alexis Lafreniere are too skilled to be shooting at a single-digit success rate, with Panarin and Lafreniere at one-third of their career average shooting percentages. But it’s more than just “they aren’t hitting their marks.” It’s certainly an input to the Rangers powerplay issues, and we’ve seen how gripping the stick a bit too tight can impact this, but unfortunately there’s a lot more here.

Low hanging fruit, this is where the Rangers truly miss Chris Kreider. The powerplay was a major success until last season because Kreider is the best net front presence in the NHL. Not just for deflections, but mostly for screens. The Rangers powerplay issues started when he was hurt and/or had vertigo last season. Missing Kreider is a reason, but certainly not the reason. No rotation of Lafreniere, Miller, or Zibanejad at the net front addresses this.

As noted this morning, lack of creativity is driving some of the Rangers powerplay issues as well. If teams don’t need to respect the shot off the right half-wall, and the bumper is serving no purpose, then it’s on Zibanejad and Panarin to convert from the left half-wall or the Rangers just don’t score at all. Neither are Alex Ovechkin, and when you add in the lack of a true net front presence, goals that came in prior years just aren’t there anymore.

Occam’s razor may apply to the Rangers powerplay issues as well, much like with this morning’s discussion on the Rangers overall offense woes. They just need to get back to basics and move their feet. There’s good rotation, but little coming from it if players rotate just to rotate and don’t make the little adjustments to find open space.

For example, the bumper taking an extra stride forward to draw a defender and open a passing lane for a slot line one-timer. Or having Adam Fox walk the line to change the angle. Or when a one-timer isn’t available, a little step or two to the high slot before getting a shot off to change the angle. Or just get shots on net low and crash for rebounds.

There are many different paths to fix the Rangers powerplay issues. Problem is, the Rangers may not have the personnel anymore to have one elite level powerplay unit. That may mean breaking up the core-four forwards on the powerplay and getting more kids involved. If that forces opponents to break up their top penalty killers to address two stronger units, being more than the sum of their parts, then it opens more opportunities for the Rangers powerplay issues to be fixed.

The Rangers powerplay issues are likely the quickest to fix, since they are skilled and a large portion of this is just shooting percentage regression. If that happens, perhaps the Rangers win a few more games and play with a bit more swagger and confidence. Shooting percentage is a major concern, but it’s not the only concern with the powerplay.

That said, even good process on paper can look stale on the ice. The Rangers powerplay issues may simply be because they’ve become stale and predictable. No amount of shooting percentage regression fixes that. We just need to be patient and see how this works out.

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