When the Rangers front office decided to release the now famous letter during the 2017-2018 NHL season, it signaled the beginning of the end of that current core of players. Fans said goodbye to Ryan McDonagh, Mats Zucarello, JT Miller, Rick Nash, and others as the Rangers began their transition to a rebuilding team after years of regular season success. With some luck, the rebuild led the Rangers to the first overall pick in 2020, selecting Alexis Lafreniere. But after five seasons and a slow start to his sixth year, many are calling Lafreniere a bust. That may be hyperbole, but it’s clear Lafreniere hasn’t turned into the elite talent many hoped he would be.
When NHL organizations make the decision to bottom out and reset their teams, the expectation is that they will at some point land one of the top five picks in the NHL entry draft. Free agency and trades are great ways to acquire talent (just ask the back-to-back defending champion Florida Panthers), but building through the draft is typically how most franchises build their core and find their stars.
In the salary cap era, it has become even more paramount for teams to find that elite talent in the draft. The Rangers, in the entire history of their franchise prior to 2020, had never held the number one pick in the draft. It was shaping up to be a monumental pick with hopes of finding a superstar. Since 2004, these were the players picked number one overall in the draft (a bold name indicates a star level player or very important player to their franchise):
- 2004 – Alexander Ovechkin – Washington Capitals
- 2005 – Sidney Crosby – Pittsburgh Penguins
- 2006 – Erik Johnson – St. Louis Blues
- 2007 – Patrick Kane – Chicago Blackhawks
- 2008 – Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay Lightning
- 2009 – John Tavares – New York Islanders
- 2010 – Taylor Hall – Edmonton Oilers
- 2011 – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton Oilers
- 2012 – Nail Yakupov – Edmonton Oilers
- 2013 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado Avalanche
- 2014 – Aaron Ekblad – Florida Panthers
- 2015 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton Oilers
- 2016 – Auston Matthews – Toronto Maple Leafs
- 2017 – Nico Hischier – New Jersey Devils
- 2018 – Rasmus Dahlin – Buffalo Sabres
- 2019 – Jack Hughes – New Jersey Devils
- 2020 – Alexis Lafreniere – New York Rangers
There is star power just about everywhere with the exceptions of just four players (Johnson, Yakupov, Lafreniere and arguably Nugent-Hopkins although that can be debated). Ovechkin has become the single greatest goal scorer in the history of the National Hockey League. Crosby is one of the best players of all time (that hurt to write). Kane has three Stanley Cups and is on track to basically be the best American forward of all time. Stamkos has two Stanley Cups and was a dominant center/winger for Tampa Bay. John Tavares was on pace to possibly be on the Mount Rushmore for the Islanders before he left for Toronto.
Hall became an MVP when he was traded to the New Jersey Devils. MacKinnon is regarded as the second best player in hockey right now and has a Stanley Cup under his belt. Ekblad served as a number one defenseman on a Stanley Cup winning Florida team. Connor McDavid is Connor McDavid. Auston Matthews is one pace to one day crack the 800 goal plateau like few others before him. Nico Hischier has become a yearly Selke-candidate on the Devils. Rasmus Dahlin is an elite number one defenseman, even if Buffalo isn’t good. Jack Hughes is a proven game changer, when healthy, for the Devils.
These are some of the best to play in the history of the sport and what has come to be the expectation of a first overall pick. A first overall pick nowadays is expected to hit his ceiling and lead their team to a Stanley Cup (fair or unfair, is up to you).
The problem is the Rangers unfortunately did not get a player even close to any of these guys, leading many to call Lafreniere a bust. Thus far, Lafreniere’s best season was when he topped out at 57 points. He hasn’t come close to looking like any sort of savior and his lack of ascension of stardom has now become something of a real issue for the Rangers.
Is Lafreniere a bust?
It’s easy to blame the Rangers and their developmental process for Lafreniere’s struggles, instead of perhaps focusing on Lafreniere’s on-ice play. I ultimately believe that in Laf’s case it’s a bit of both. Normally, a number one overall pick is thrust into the lineup and given top six minutes and time on the team’s top power-play. Lafreniere was not given those opportunities and was forced to play lower in the lineup with no real powerplay time. The Rangers also seemingly tried to alter the way he played the game and make him more defensive minded.
When Lafreniere made a mistake early on, he wasn’t given the benefit of the doubt, the way veterans have been treated. He wasn’t allowed to play his game, play through his mistakes, and we are seeing what that does to a player’s confidence in real time. It’s too late now, but we’d be likely be avoiding this whole “Is Lafreniere a bust?” discussion if the Rangers simply treated him as a first overall pick, playing him next to Mika Zibanejad and on the top powerplay from the moment he stepped on the ice. All three previous coaches deserve a fair share of blame, but has Lafreniere ever shown true game breaking talent?
In calling Lafreniere a bust, it’s because as a first overall pick, he should be taking charge of this team and have taken the next step in his career. He hasn’t even come close to 70 points, is one of the many Rangers struggling to score this year, and can look lost at times on the ice. He’s finally getting consistent top-six time the last two seasons, but hasn’t put up the numbers many hoped from a number one overall pick.
Unfortunately, his lack of elite play is hurting the team even more as they search for answers offensively this season. The hope was that Lafreniere would take the next step under Mike Sullivan in an expanded role, but he, like most other Rangers, can’t put the puck in the net this season. His underlying numbers are very good, but he just doesn’t have that next level in his game.
Only recent top pick to have minimal impact on his team
What makes this more troubling is the top picks after Lafreniere seem to have already eclipsed him. Connor Bedard (Chicago, 2023) and Macklin Celebrini (San Jose, 2024) have had a larger impact on their teams in less years than Lafreniere has for the Rangers. Bedard and Celebrini are already among some of the best young players in the league and one day may very well rank among the best players in all of hockey. Celebrini also put on a show the other night at the Garden when he had a hat trick in a 6-5 Sharks win in overtime.
Lafreniere hasn’t sniffed either of those distinctions yet in his career., and Celebrini’s performance last week put more focus on the Lafreniere is a bust argument. Without Lafreniere ascending to the ceiling management and fans thought he was going to reach, it’s difficult to see this iteration of the Rangers reaching a Cup Final.
Is Alexis Lafreniere a bust? Or are we still finding talking points to explain it away so we can hold out hope?
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