The New York Rangers are onto the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. A date with the Carolina Hurricanes is likely up next, assuming they take care of business against the New York Islanders at some point over the next 3 games. There are lessons learned from the Rangers sweep of the Capitals, and it’ll be critical they make adjustments against a far, far better Canes team.

1. The Rangers can win in multiple ways

The test of a true champion is whether they can win when the game isn’t going according to plan, and they need to adjust. The Rangers absolutely dominated Game 1, cruising to a win without the need for a powerplay goal. Games 2, 3, and 4 were different, with the Rangers seemingly playing down to their opponent, leading to much closer games.

None of those games were 5v5 gems, but the Rangers got it done with special teams and goaltending. Another part of the Rangers Formula.

These Rangers found multiple ways to win. They dominated and cruised, they had Igor Shesterkin steal one, they had special teams win a game outright, and they had a defensive clinic when their 5v5 offense couldn’t sustain anything.

There’s room for improvement, specifically with 5v5 offense. But if the Blueshirts are able to shut down their opponents at 5v5, even with limited offense, they’ve shown they can win with special teams. Igor can win one when nothing else is going right.

The Rangers can win a track meet. They can win a tight, physical game. They can win despite mistakes and they can win when they are close to perfect. Most importantly, they can win when they are behind from the start. The Rangers have a different mentality this year.

2. The Rangers’ 5v5 play needs to improve

Of course, there’s always room for improvement. The Rangers were not very good at 5v5 after Game 1. We do know the Rangers play down to their opponents, so that was likely a factor, but not the whole story. The Blueshirts have always struggled to generate sustained offense at 5v5.

The saving grace was their ability to generate high danger chances at 5v5. The Blueshirts are one of the top teams in converting their high danger chances, which leads to the disconnect between sustained pressure and simply converting their chances. Both, of course, are important.

The improvements start with getting Filip Chytil back and creating a third line that does more than shut down their opponents. The Will Cuylle-Alex Wennberg-Kaapo Kakko line was one of the best in terms of xG share, but it was more a product of defensive play instead of offensive play. Chytil adds far more offense to the line without sacrificing too much on defense.

Defensive play has been fine overall with lapses here and there, normal stuff throughout the course of a hockey game. The key is getting more sustained offense from beyond the top-six. Chytil is the solution.

3. Igor Shesterkin is the key

For those subscribed to the Patreon (shameless plug, subscribe here!) we spoke about the Rangers FormulaTM and how the Blueshirts have a unique way of winning games without the need to dominate at 5v5. In fact, one of the inputs into the formula is simply getting a 48% xG share, under the 50% holy grail of controlling play.

One of the major keys to the formula is Igor Shesterkin being Igor Shesterkin. In games where he gives the Rangers over 0.25 GSAx (goals saved above expected), the Rangers have a whopping 47-6 record. Shesterkin is the key. He always has been. He always will be. Much like Lois Lane in Justice League.

Note: Luker said this isn’t the best use of stats, since using one of the inputs into the formula without accounting for the xG share and powerplay goal variables means the data may be misleading. Since neither of us were 100% on how to explain this, I’m leaving the original with this note. I may update this at a later time.

Igor is an advantage that few teams can match since he’s just that good on a regular basis. Teams can get this type of goaltending in spurts, like how Charlie Lindgren basically willed the Capitals into the playoffs. But to get 53 of 82 games with this kind of goaltending? It’s rare.

Igor is the key. That may be lazy analysis, but it’s the truth. Igor can be the hero behind a team struggling to generate anything on offense. He can also be the imposing force behind a juggernaut that figured it out and steamrolls their opponent in that particular game. If Igor goes, the Rangers go.

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