Rangers need to go for the throat in Game 2

Depth, penalty killing, timely scoring, and solid team defense won Game 1 for the Rangers on Sunday afternoon. It’s a winning formula for the Rangers, who did not need a powerplay goal–in 2 opportunities–to put the Caps away. But with every strong win comes a caveat: The Rangers need to go for the throat and demoralize the Caps.

Far too many times throughout the years, we’ve seen the Rangers go up 1-0 and then hand the series right back to the opposition. Game 1 win, Game 2 loss seemed to be the trend, and it’s something Peter Laviolette can end tonight.

In their Game 1 win, the Rangers defied critics by putting up 4 goals at even strength and none on the powerplay. The Rangers formula for a win is to tread water at 5v5 (~48% xG share), get elite goaltending, and convert on the powerplay. They got two of the three, and they won.

Per Rob Luker’s nice work here, we see how the Rangers fare with the formula. Naturally when they get all three, they are undefeated at 14-0. When they own the xG share and get goaltending, like they did in Game 1, they are 9-1. Naturally, more of the Game 1 effectiveness is needed.

As you go down the analysis, you’ll see the what happens when the goaltending starts to falter (5th row). When Igor Shesterkin has a rough outing, the Ranges are a sub-.500 hockey team. That shouldn’t be surprising, as we saw how poor goaltending tanked the Devils and Penguins this year.

But one row above, getting just goaltending with no powerplay goals and without owning the xG share, the Rangers are still 11-5. It’s not ideal, but Igor is still the key to success and a critical part in how the Rangers can go for the throat in Game 2.

Simply put if Igor is just his normal self, not even the Vezina trophy self, the Rangers have a strong chance at winning. Converting on powerplay chances and/or dominating the xG share only enhances their winning probability.

So how does all this play into going for the throat in Game 2?

Assuming Igor is Igor, then the Rangers simply need to play their game again and not play down to the Caps. Specifically, this means not falling into the trap of fighting Tom Wilson or Dylan McIlrath when it isn’t needed. Retaliation penalties will be a big part of that.

Just continue to slow the Caps down in the neutral zone and rely on the same line matchups from Game 1. Given how they dominated the game, matching what they did in Game 1 is more than enough. A little dip is still fine as well, given how they looked.

Washington is not a good team. They are a fine enough team, but not one that should give the Rangers fits. This is a series the Rangers can end quickly, and that is the goal. End the series in 4 or 5. It looks like Carolina is going to do the same.