For Rangers, would President’s Trophy be a blessing or a curse?

With just 12 games left in the regular season, it seems a debate is growing. Should the Rangers go for the President’s Trophy, or should they rest players down the stretch? The discussion is, as expected a black-and-white “argument online” with very little detailed discussion, but it does seem one argument is the President’s Trophy is a curse. It’s a bit of a tired argument with little substance.

Whether or not the Rangers win the President’s Trophy has no bearing on their future playoff success, at least not on the surface. However if players get hurt, banged up, or worn out during the pursuit, well that’s a different story. It’s less about the trophy itself, and more about what it costs the Rangers to win it. Or to be more positive, what it will lead to if they set the proper winning mindset.

Going for the President’s Trophy certainly comes with a bit of risk. We’ve seen both Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren go down with injuries already. Many guys took various pucks to the face against Tampa as well, none leading to serious injuries. The preference is to obviously bubble wrap everyone until the playoffs, but that’s simply not realistic.

No matter what, injuries are going to be a risk. It’s unavoidable, and the risk doesn’t outweigh the benefit of setting the winning mentality going into the playoffs. As a reminder, these guys are human. We saw how going .500 heading into the playoffs last year impacted them. While coaching is different, and better, this year, it’s still important to continue winning and not back into the playoffs.

That’s what drove this week’s Patreon post about cherry picking playoff opponents (subscribe here!). Even if avoiding Tampa is preferred, is it worth it for the Rangers to throw some games and back into the playoffs? Likely not. They are going to face good teams no matter what, and there’s still no guarantee they even get Tampa. With 12 games left, the standings aren’t set.

Going for the President’s Trophy does, however, ensure the Rangers don’t get Tampa no matter what. It’s the only guaranteed way, without losing, to guarantee a date with Tampa doesn’t come until later in the playoffs, if ever. It’s a pretty simple formula actually: Win the President’t Trophy, avoid Tampa, and keep that winning mentality. The only risk is injury, which is a risk no matter what.

So what’s the downside? The curse? The last time the Rangers won the President’s Trophy (2014-2015), they went to the Eastern Conference Final. Before that? 1994. I hate invoking 1994 because it’s relatively lazy, but it supports the argument here that finishing as the top team in the NHL isn’t really a curse.

The trophy has been awarded 37 times since its inception in the 1985-1986 season. Eight of those teams have won a Stanley Cup, good for 21.6%. With 16 teams in the playoffs, the odds of winning, just based on math, is 1-in-16 (6.25%). It’s not the best math since obviously some teams are better than others, but we’ve seen in the NHL more than any other sports league that any team or goalie can steal a series.

The moral of the story is quite simple and quite obvious. Short term preferences do not outweigh the long term goal. The short term preference, obviously, is to avoid Tampa. But if it gets in the way of the ultimate goal, a Stanley Cup, then it’s missing the forest for the trees. Guarantee missing Tampa by winning the President’s Trophy. It’s as simple as that.