Last night’s 6-3 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning just felt different than your garden variety road loss. It felt like a playoff game. If you haven’t read Dave’s thoughts on the contest, where he provides some very helpful analysis and – most importantly – perspective, get on that. But with the loss, are the Rangers true Cup contenders?
Speaking of perspective, I often find it helpful to step back and look at a team holistically, especially after a particularly difficult loss. We know this about the 2023-24 New York Rangers: they’re a good team. They’ve been in first place in the Metropolitan Division since October. They have star players, elite goaltending, a threatening power play, and one of the best coaching staffs in the league.
They are also considered by many to be a cut or two below the “true” Stanley Cup contenders.
Some of that perception is likely due to a nearly two month stretch where the Rangers played mediocre-at-best. Their recent surge has been driven by Igor Shesterkin’s return to form, prompting the seemingly age-old question: are the Rangers good enough at 5 on 5?
As I write this, the Rangers have played 66 games, so let’s have some fun with arbitrary endpoints, shall we? Below, I break down the Rangers season into three 22-game segments. I decided to look at a few key, team-level metrics: 5v5 xG%, all-situations xG%, 5v5 SV%, all-situations SV%. All data from Natural Stat Trick, 5v5 stats are score and venue-adjusted.
Games 1-22 (October 12 – December 2)
- Record: 17-4-1
- 5v5 xG%: 50.52% (16/32)
- All-situations xG%: 50.17% (18/32)
- 5v5 SV%: 0.923 (9/32)
- All-situations SV%: 0.918 (4/32)
Games 23-44 (December 3 – January 18)
- Record: 11-10-1
- 5v5 xG%: 49.77% (18/32)
- All-situations xG%: 52.76% (9/32)
- 5v5 SV%: 0.892 (31/32)
- All-situations SV%: 0.883 (28/32)
Games 45-66 (January 20 – March 14)
- Record: 15-5-2
- 5v5 xG%: 45.56% (27/32)
- All-situations xG%: 49.79% (19/32)
- 5v5 SV%: 0.939 (2/32)
- All-situations SV%: 0.925 (2/32)
Observations
It’s easy to see why the Rangers got off to the start they did. They pretty much followed Rob Luker’s Formula in every game, and stormed out of the gate to a 0.795 pts%, which led the NHL through games played on December 2. Not only were they an average-to-above 5v5 team (led mostly by their team defense and ability to play “low event” hockey), they got superior goaltending. Ideal.
The middle 22-game segment is fascinating. The goaltending went into the tank, but the Rangers held steady at 5v5 and the power play excelled (which explains the near 3% difference in xG share between 5v5 play and all-situations). It’s fair to say that the Rangers carried their goaltenders – and particularly Igor Shesterkin – through that rough stretch. That 11-10-1 record, which felt so bad at the time, could have been a lot worse. Don’t underestimate that.
The most recent run of success has been highlighted by Igor’s return to form. From the All-Star break onwards, he’s been the best goalie in hockey, bar Sergei Bobrovsky. However, the 5v5 xG share is a slight cause for concern. Simply put: that won’t cut it down the stretch, and especially in the playoffs.
Conclusion
The Rangers are capable of being a solid 5v5 team, especially with a healthy and balanced lineup. The trade deadline has already paid dividends, as the Rangers’ xG share in the 4 games played since March 8 is 50.98%, good for 13th in the league. If that trend continues, the Rangers are dangerous. If Igor continues to be Igor, they are true Cup contenders.
It could be a special spring.
Share:
More About:Analysis