What would it cost if the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras?

Silly season is underway, and we have our first rumor that makes us question our sanity. Per Frank Seravalli, the Anaheim Ducks may have been quietly shopping Trevor Zegras. It is not so quiet now, and the human highlight reel is now the center of attention. If this is true, the cost if the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras would likely be quite high. After all, he’s a 22 year old 1C with 60+ points in each of his first two seasons.

If Zegras is truly available, all 31 teams will be inquiring about him, and for good reason. The question isn’t about his talent, it’s about his acquisition cost and if it’s a good fit for their current situation. It’s not as simple as a yes/no. Many different variables are in play.

We know what Zegras is from a points perspective. It’s a big part of an analysis, but doesn’t tell the entire story. A potential red flag is that Zegras may not drive offense like many would like and is very clearly in need of some defensive coaching. A grain of salt is required for some of this, as the Ducks are pretty terrible.

There are two nuances to the awful defensive metrics, which can be systems related. First is Greg Cronin, the current Ducks coach, is a rookie head coach from Northeastern. Usually these guys are “developmental” coaches, but as we saw with David Quinn, success isn’t guaranteed. No disrespect to Cronin, who is in his first year and deserves more time to be properly evaluated, but it is certainly an input to Zegras’ metrics.

Dallas Eakins, Zegras’ prior coach, wasn’t very good. Zegras produced numbers despite his coach, not because of his coach, especially last season when his coaching style was basically just didn’t get the most out of his teams. Last season in particular, the Ducks were just not generating offense and hemorrhaging chances on defense.

So there is a chance that Zegras’ poor metrics are a product of environment and coaching. We’ve seen how that can play out with Alexis Lafreniere, and how the right coach and right situation can take a player’s game to a new level. Especially a young player still learning the NHL game and speed.

So what’s the cost if the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras

With some nuance out of the way, the big question is what the cost is should the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras. It’s not often that 22 year old 1Cs are traded. Even the Jack Eichel trade isn’t the best comparable trade, but some of the off-ice factors (trade request, injury status, contract) factored into a lower trade cost that may be a starting point.

The Eichel trade cost Vegas Peyton Krebs, a former 1st round pick and at the time a top prospect for Vegas, Alex Tuch, a middle six winger at the time, and 1st and 3rd round picks. Using this as a starting point if the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras, we are likely looking at Filip Chytil, Brennan Othmann, and a 1st round pick.

If that cost makes you cringe, it should. You have to give to get in this league, and the definition of a fair trade is one where both fan bases are upset at the cost/return. I imagine Ducks fans would want something more, and I imagine Ranger fans don’t want to give up Othmann in any trade.

If the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras, it’s going to cost pieces you don’t want to give up. After all, 22 year old 1Cs who  put up 60+ points in each of his first two seasons don’t grow on trees. Perhaps this is even too light for Zegras, as using Eichel as the comparable trade isn’t the best.

The elephant in the room isn’t the trade cost should the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras, it’s whether he’s truly available at all. The Ducks are rebuilding, Zegras has another 2 years at an affordable $5.75 million cap hit, and he’s just 22 years old. This doesn’t pass the sniff test, but perhaps we are missing something.

Disclaimer: I do not support/reject this idea. I am just presenting what could be the cost if the Rangers acquire Trevor Zegras.