It’s that time of the year again, and with NHL games kicking off on Tuesday, we have some DFS hockey to talk about. Tuesday’s three game slate kicks off the hockey season, and the early season slates are where we might be able to take advantage of some mispriced players. Keep in mind everyone else can too, so let’s find some bargains, shall we?
As a reminder, be sure to check out my primer on how to win big at DFS hockey. And as always, please bet and play responsibly.
*This content is unlocked for now. DFS and sports betting content will go behind the Patreon in November. Subscribe here! This isn’t strictly Rangers content, but it’s something I love and I am halfway decent at.
Goalies – don’t overthink it
I build my lineup with the goalie first, as the goalie can make or break your DFS hockey lineup. Whereas the skaters and line stacks are subject to random variance, a goalie’s workload is easier to predict. Since I play on DraftKings, I want a goalie who is favored to win, but also should face a bunch of shots. I want to get to that 35+ save bonus (3 points) plus the win (6 points).
All three of the home teams (Tampa, Pittsburgh, Vegas) are heavily favored, and it’s expected that all three win. Since we want to get to the highest volume of shots faced, of which Seattle had the highest CF/60 at even strength last season among the three underdogs. Vegas also surrendered a bottom-five CA/60. Seattle, for all it’s shot attempts, didn’t generate many high-danger chances either.
Lots of low danger chances for expected starter Logan Thompson ($8k). But it’s hard to go wrong with either of the 3 starters on the favorites.
Top Stacks
*This is subject to change, and is based on line combos from practice. Please make sure you check the line/PP combos before locking your lineup.*
Remember that winning DFS hockey tournaments is about the ceiling of your roster, not the median projection. Ceiling wins large scale tournaments, not median. We are looking for stacks that will have good matchups at even strength and also get powerplay minutes against weak PKs.
The three favored teams all had excellent scoring chance generating powerplays last season. Of the teams playing tomorrow, Nashville had by far the worst SCA/60 on the PK last year, and Seattle by far the best. Make of that what you will. Personally, I’m looking to get on Pittsburgh and Tampa stacks up front, as both games have the highest projected point totals.
Point-Kucherov-Stamkos
TB1 is also the top-three on Tampa’s powerplay. They are the most expensive on the slate too, coming in at a combined $23.2k. This may be low owned because of the price. Nashville was the 9th-most penalized team last season. Don’t overthink it.
Guentzel-Crosby and/or Malkin-Rakell
But Dave. Guentzel may not play! Ok…so don’t play him if he doesn’t play. Please see that note above.
Crosby and Guentzel are on PIT1 and PP1, and come in at a combined $15.2k. Malkin and Rakell ($12.9k) are cheaper and are also on PP1 and together on PIT2. I’d expect Crosby-Guentzel to be lesser owned because they are more expensive. Both duos are fine. Chicago was the 3rd-least penalized team last season, so there’s some risk.
There’s good stacking potential with either Karlsson (PP1 – $7.1k) or Letang (PP2 – $6.7k) if you want to pay up for a defenseman.
Bedard-Hall-Donato
Connor Bedard ($7.5k), Taylor Hall ($4.9k), and Ryan Donato ($3.1k) are your bargain stack of the day. At a combined $15.5k, this qualifies as a bargain. But given the Bedard hype, Tristan Jarry in net, and the high scoring expectation of the game, I expect this to be the chalk stack, but could be wrong because everyone is expecting Chicago to be bad again.
Remember, it’s not about the team, it’s about the individual potential to put up DK points.
Top Defensemen
Defensemen in DFS are tough. Unless you pay up for Karlsson, Letang, or Josi, you’re gambling with point production. Since DraftKings awards points for blocked shots, including a bonus at 3 blocked shots, that’s what I prefer to target. But there’s room to go after a scoring defenseman.
Erik Karlsson ($7.1k) or Kris Letang ($6.7k)
See above. Pick one, not both, and stack with the corresponding forwards on the powerplay.
Seth Jones ($5.4k)
Jones eats minutes for Chicago, is on their top pair and PP1, shoots a ton and blocks a bunch of shots. At $5.4k, and with the stack option above, he’s likely going to be chalk.
Nicolas Hague – $2.7k
Vegas was far and away the NHL leader in blocked shots last season. Seattle shoots a ton. I like to stack a goalie and a defenseman, so this works. Both Alec Martinez and Zach Whitecloud are on IR, opening up some interesting bargain bin opportunities.
Nicolas Hague blocked 164 shots last season and is getting a bump in ice time due to injuries. He will also be on PP2 to start the season (per Daily Faceoff), so there’s an outside chance he gets on the scoreboard as well.
Share:
More About:DFS/Sports Betting