The case for a (very unlikely) Barclay Goodrow buyout in 2023

The NHL buyout window is officially open today, and will run until the day before free agency. Every now and then, we wonder if the Rangers will get out from one of their bigger contracts (note: big, not necessarily bad). Given the minimal cap increases the last few seasons, a buyout has become a method to get out from one of these contracts that weren’t expected to age so poorly. While we don’t expect any buyouts this season, a Barclay Goodrow buyout in 2023 might actually be the best path forward if a reasonable trade can’t be found. Emphasis on reasonable, and remember this is not a “one or the other” scenario.

Goodrow is expected to be traded at some point. Signing him was a halfway decent idea at the time, but the contract was always bad, even if there were a good number of outs from the start. His $3.6 million over the next four years with a minimally increasing cap has been a cause of concern. Goodrow has seen career highs in goals (13), assists (20), and points (33) since coming to the Rangers, likely a product of being miscast in the top-six and playing with scoring forwards. Still, 10 goals and 30 points, while career highs, are not top-six numbers, and they misrepresent his bottom-six production.

The cap gets complicated with both Alexis Lafreniere and K’Andre Miller due new contracts and a potential desire to lock them up long term for a cheap-ish cap hit. In addition to Laf and Miller, the Rangers have an additional 3-4 forwards, 1-2 defensemen, and 1 goalie spot to fill. With just $11.7 million in cap space as of now, that’s a difficult ask. Hence, a Barclay Goodrow buyout, if a trade can’t be found, may be the best and only option for the Rangers to clear space.

Goodrow has a 15 team no trade clause, which makes a trade a bit more of a complicated endeavor. Many assume the Rangers will need to attach a high draft pick to trade him, something I disagree with, but if that is truly the only way to free up space, a Barclay Goodrow buyout is the better path. Saving draft picks is important, especially with a bit of a depleted farm system. Saving a pick and getting out from under his contract in key years may be just enough of a reason to bite the bullet.

A Barclay Goodrow buyout saves his entire salary for 2 years

Of the potential buyouts, Goodrow is the only one that comes with a full salary clearance this season and next. The Rangers would actually gain $3.8 million in cap space this season, and $3.7 million next season.

It’s rare to see a buyout work out so well for a team, especially given the current financial environment in the NHL. The cap ceiling is only expected to go up $1 million, of which 60% of that goes to bonus overages. A Barclay Goodrow buyout gives the Rangers much needed flexibility this year and next, possibly their last two years in this window to win, to add a top-six scorer. The buyout only becomes a potential problem in 2026-2027, when the Rangers have one year of the full cap hit before the minimal $1.26 million in post-buyout costs start hitting.

Naturally with any buyout, it’s those last years that inflict a level of pain to any team. It’s a manageable cap hit at $1.26 million, but that’s the supremely optimistic viewpoint. The big question is, again if a trade can’t happen, whether or not the early benefits outweigh the risks later on. After all, the cap can’t continue to be flat for another 3 years, right? Hockey revenue is sky high.

Will a $3.65 million cap hit in 2026-2027 really be a huge deal? Consider this:

1. The cap ceiling will likely see large increases over the coming seasons. The Covid financial issues seem to have waned, and revenues are back on track.
2. The Rangers have a window to win right now and need the cap space to shore up the roster.
3. There’s a strong chance that when the cap hit becomes bigger from the Barclay Goodrow buyout, the Rangers will be retooling/transitioning to the next core.
4. These next two seasons are their best chances at winning a Cup, given their current core.

It’s not a slam dunk case for a Barclay Goodrow buyout, but it certainly is an intriguing option.

The case against buying out Goodrow

This isn’t advocating for a Barclay Goodrow buyout, mind you. It’s just an intriguing option found while writing a different post (more on that tomorrow). It’s easy to build a case against buying out Goodrow. He’s a leader in the room who has “been there before,” which does hold some value, even if overpriced at $3.6 million. We constantly bring up his return to the playoffs in 2022, which Gerard Gallant kept secret from the team, and it gave the Rangers a big boost in morale. He means a lot to this team, even if there is a separate issue about vocal leaders in the room.

Another case against: Goodrow can play all three forward positions somewhat well, and can play up and down the lineup. Goodrow’s best in a bottom six role, but he’s shown an ability to score in the last two seasons when put in a top six role. Other NHL teams see this, as do Chris Drury and Peter Laviolette. Flexibility and versatility help roster construction, and there’s a strong case that Goodrow can be part of an effective shutdown fourth line. Again, he’s expensive, but he’s certainly useful.

Instead of a Barclay Goodrow buyout, the Rangers are likely looking to trade him instead. The buyout only becomes a possibility if the Rangers are desperate for cap space and any potential trade would mean attaching another pick to shed a contract. It’s not the best approach. Then again, neither is attaching 5 years of dead space to a team that has some rough contracts to begin with. A Barclay Goodrow buyout would be a risky bet on the cap ceiling going up enough to eat that dead cap space.

A Barlcay Goodrow buyout is likely a last resort for Drury and Laviolette. If he’s moved, it’s likely via trade. Don’t be surprised if he is with the Rangers on opening night too.