Rangers 1st round preview: Statistics favor Devils, but Rangers hold the wild card

The Rangers and the Devils will meet in playoffs for the first time since the 2012 Eastern Conference Final, when the Devils famously beat the Rangers in overtime. Since then the Devils fell off the map until this year, and have done a masterful job in rebuilding. The Rangers had their runs, but couldn’t get over the hump before also doing a masterful job at rebuilding. Both teams are on the rise. This Rangers 1st round series preview with the Devils may be the first of many in the coming years.

Rangers 1st round preview: Stats favor the Devils

If you’ve been on social media, you’ve seen tons of public stats models that all seem to say one thing: The Devils have the advantage. It seems everyone is picking them to win. And yea, it makes sense. The Rangers don’t have the statistical advantage. There are many reasons –Ben Harpur, Libor Hajek– but them’s the facts. The Devils have the better numbers, at least at even strength.

Stats above per Natural Stat Trick at 5v5.

The Rangers hold the skill advantage, with a higher save percentage and shot percentage. That will matter in the playoffs, as chances become fewer and further between. In theory, since the Devils generate more xG attempts and are pretty good at limiting those chances against, it means they are the better team. After all, they did finish ahead of the Rangers in the standings.

The lazy analysis is to look at something like this and say that the Devils will steamroll the Rangers. But what kind of Rangers 1st round preview would this be if we didn’t at least dive a little deeper?

Rush chances are the Devils bread and butter

Don’t take any of this the wrong way. The Devils are a very good team and will continue to be good for many years. Their offensive numbers are typical for a Lindy Ruff team. Ruff’s teams are usually extremely aggressive, relying on a 2-1-2 forecheck or an aggressive 1-2-2 forecheck. This leads to turnovers and rush chances as the primary driver of offense.

What is more surprising is how the defensive numbers have held up. Ruff does not have a history of strong defensive teams, normally ranking in the bottom third of the league. However this year’s Devils are much different, with strong defensive numbers to go with their top-five offensive numbers. Again, the Devils are good.

There can be multiple reasons why the Devils have strong defensive numbers. The first is clear: The Devils are one of the top rush chance teams in the league, using their aggressive style of play to force turnovers and quickly transition the other way. It becomes effective because the Devils are one of the faster teams in the NHL with high end talent, which means they are able to finish on those chances.

But the Devils have puck moving defenseman too

Rush chances are just one aspect of their game, and while a big part, rush chance teams can get smothered in the playoffs. Look no further than the Rangers’ last run of success. This is what makes the Devils dangerous though, as they are also superb with zone exits. Dougie Hamilton is naturally a huge part of that.

Successful zone exits and breakouts give the Devils another look to their offense, and one that can be leaned on if and when those rush chances dry up. The Devils are again a league leader in the transition game, with strong play out of their own zone, through the neutral zone, and into the offensive zone. Speed kills, and the Devils have speed.

The wild card: Injuries and the 4th line

The wild card belongs to the Rangers, and that is their fourth line. When they aren’t on the ice with Ben Harpur, who played way too many minutes this season, the new iteration of the Blueshirts fourth line is one of the best in the league with a 60.65 xG share. Meanwhile, and not saying it’s bad, the Devils fourth line is propped up by an unsustainable on-ice SV%, fueling their perceived success.

The Rangers fourth line is going to be a wild card for the Blueshirts, as tertiary scoring is a critical need for any successful playoff run. If the Rangers get some kind of timely offense from the Motte-Goodrow-Vesey line while also controlling quality chances against, it’s a big win.

The other wild card is injuries. The Rangers have very little injury depth *that Gerard Gallant seems willing to play.* If Harpur is playing extended minutes, then something has gone wrong. Ditto Libor Hajek or Jake Leschyshyn. As long as the Rangers are able to stay healthy, their starting 18 is a difficult matchup for any team.

Key to the matchup: Generate offensive zone time

For the Rangers, the big key will be generating offensive zone time. We say this a lot, since the Rangers have been notoriously bad at sustained zone time for a few seasons.

Generating zone time signals two major on-ice successes for the Blueshirts. First, it is a signal they are breaking through the Devils forecheck and getting into the offensive zone with control. Breaking the forecheck naturally means they are limiting rush chances against, and forcing the Devils to play 200 foot hockey.

Without consistent offense off rush chances, the Devils would be taking a significant hit in generating those quality chances for themselves. Given the Rangers are also decent enough at limiting quality against, it’s a three-fold win for the Blueshirts. Break the forecheck, limit chances against, generate chances for.

Or they can just trade chances and hope Shesterkin outplays Vitek Vanacek.