The regular season ends tonight for the NY Rangers, as they square off against the Toronto Maple Leafs in a meaningless game for both teams. Both are locked into their playoff seed, and both teams just want to escape tonight unscathed. With their eyes on the playoffs and the eventual prize of a Stanley Cup, they will need to be near perfect in the playoffs, with five keys to the Rangers success in the playoffs.
1. Igor Igor Igor
The most important of the keys to the Rangers success is Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers will go as he goes. If Shesterkin is bad, then the Rangers likely won’t last long in the playoffs. If he’s what we expect him to be, then the Rangers can beat anyone in a 7 game series if other pieces fall into place. If he’s elite Igor, like what we had for most of last season and what he’s been rounding into the last month or so, then watch out.
Shesterkin is capable of stealing a series on his own. He masks a lot of mistakes, rush chances against, powerplay chances, and turnovers. The only thing he’s lacking to date is sustained playoff success, but if last year was any indication, he’s unfazed by postseason play. After the initial adrenaline wore off, Shesterkin had 3 rough starts against the Penguins before playing lights out in net for the rest of the playoffs.
If Shesterkin plays like this, the Rangers are an incredibly difficult out.
2. Tread water at even strength
Puck possession is a key indicator of team strength. If you have good possession and xG numbers, it means you’re getting good offensive zone time with quality chances. But these numbers ignore specific skills like shooting, and elite shooting –capitalizing on your chances– can help balance out weaker possession numbers.
That’s where the Rangers stand. There are few, if any, teams that can match the pure talent up and down the Rangers lineup and in net. Talent can do a lot, which is why the Rangers don’t necessarily need to be a league leader in possession and xG share. It certainly helps and makes things much easier if they morph into one for the playoffs, but it’s not necessarily an issue if they simply tread water (note: around 48% xG share) over the course of a full playoff run.
Treading water isn’t the goal, it’s the bare minimum. If the ice tilts too much in favor of their opponent, then it puts more strain on that talent to capitalize on their offensive chances when they come around. Over the course of a 7 game series, playing to a 40% xG share spells doom. You can’t win on talent alone.
Treading water at even strength is one of the keys to Rangers success, since the talent, powerplay, and goaltending should be enough to keep them in games. If they play above average, then they are very difficult to beat.
3. Get the powerplay going
The third of the keys to the Rangers success in the playoffs is the powerplay. It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since the trade deadline, but the new units have been moving the puck well so there’s hope they are figuring it out. If the powerplay is clicking, generating chances, and most importantly scoring, then this again will mask poorer even strength play.
That extra goal or two with the man advantage goes a long way, especially if most of the even strength game is in the Rangers zone.
Of these first three keys to the Rangers success, the Rangers really only need two to stay in games. Two of the three, they are in it. One of the three, it might get ugly. All three, and maybe only the Bruins can keep pace. The sky is the limit for the Rangers, they just need to show up and execute.
4. Limit turnovers in the neutral zone
It goes without saying that limiting turnovers in the defensive zone is important in the playoffs. Offensive zone turnovers are frustrating, especially when it’s between the tops of the circles and the blue line, since it leads to transition rush chances against. But where the Rangers struggle most is with neutral zone turnovers, especially with non-breakout zone exits, which leads to more rush chances against.
The Rangers are one of the worst teams in terms of allowing rush chances against. It’s usually masked by Igor being Igor, but they still give up way too many chances like that. “Simply” taking better care of the puck through the neutral zone eliminates a lot of these concerns. Simply, of course, in quotes because nothing is simple in the playoffs.
Game play tightens up in the playoffs, especially if the Rangers are up against Carolina or Boston, two top tier teams at suppressing chances against. If the Rangers are to keep that xG share around 48%, as mentioned in key #2, then limiting their own turnovers will be a huge part of it.
5. Stars need to produce
If the Rangers are bounced early from the playoffs, we won’t be talking about Ben Harpur or Libor Hajek or Jake Leschyshyn. While the Rangers do have depth issues if they hit a bunch of injuries, success in the playoffs is due to your stars producing. If the Rangers are out early, it’s because their so-called Super Team wasn’t so Super after all.
Chris Drury went out and got Vladimir Tarasenko and Patrick Kane to help with their offensive inconsistency. It gave the Rangers three legitimate scoring lines. Last year, Tampa shut down the Mika Zibanejad line, and the rest was history.
This version of the Rangers has three legitimate scoring lines that are capable of long offensive zone shifts. Shutting down one won’t be enough. It may present a scenario of fluid shutdown matchups, where the top two lines may see different shutdown matchups. The only thing that matters is at least one of these lines producing regularly, even if it’s alternating.
The Kid Line will also need to produce, as they will likely be an after thought from a matchup perspective.
Two of the three lines generating offensive chances each game is all the Rangers need. The stars need to produce, and this is how they get there.
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