NY Rangers 1st round opponent: Devils or Canes, does it even matter?

With all eyes on the playoffs, the only unknown is the Rangers 1st round opponent. For most of the 2023 calendar year, it’s been the Devils. However the Devils can still win the division, and the Rangers are still a virtual lock for the #3 seed in the Metro. It’s either the Devils or the Canes, and quite honestly, does it really matter?

Both Carolina and New Jersey are very good teams with very big holes. Carolina is a puck possession monster that lacks a true finisher and game breaker. The Devils have more finishing skill, but have a huge issue in net and in how they generate offense. For fair analysis, the Rangers have the elite talent, but are not good at generating sustained offensive zone pressure.

Does the Rangers 1st round opponent even matter?

Whether it’s the Devils or the Canes, the Rangers 1st round opponent has weapons to exploit the Rangers’ weaknesses, but the Rangers have weapons to exploit their weaknesses.

Starting with the Devils, we know most of their offense comes off the transition. The pressure on the forecheck, force turnovers, and quickly move the puck the other way. Per Meghan Chayka, one of the best minds in hockey today, the Devils are a top-five team in generating rush chances. Funny enough, the Rangers are one of the worst teams in surrendering these types of chances.

You might think this means it’s a clear advantage for the Devils, but this is where goaltending plays a role. If the Rangers are going to trade chances with the Devils, and all signs are pointing to that, then it becomes Igor Shesterkin vs. Vitek Vanacek. While Vanacek is certainly capable of getting hot, you take Igor 10 times out of 10 there.

As for Carolina, they rely primarily on dump and chase, which plays better to the Rangers strengths. They are good at zone exit passing, even if their actual exits and control through the neutral zone need some work. That said, Carolina generates a ton off the dump-in, and given they are already a possession juggernaut, they could pin the Rangers for lengthy stretches at a time.

The Rangers lead the league in xG against, per Chayka’s analysis. So while the Rangers would get pinned, and have in multiple games, the chances aren’t there. Carolina would lean on many low/medium danger chances and hope there’s a screen or some luck. Quantity will still matter, since it would force the Rangers to capitalize on their few chances while playing most of the game in the defensive zone.

Should there be a preference?

In terms of the Rangers 1st round opponent, everyone will have their own preference. The Rangers likely match up better against the Canes, given everything mentioned above. It’s also not a good idea to go up against a team where their strength is your weakness (rush chances), even if it’s Vanacek in net.

However this isn’t the case of one team being far better than the other. Both of the possible Rangers 1st round opponents are tough outs. The bigger concern isn’t opponent, it’s finding a way to get a short series.

Shesterkin in net certainly has its perks, and perhaps one of those is standing on his head to make a series against either team a quick one, preferably 5 games. But that’s asking a lot of Shesterkin, and quite frankly isn’t a realistic hope.

All in all, the Rangers 1st round opponent doesn’t matter. The Rangers will go as Igor goes. If he’s off, it’s a quick exit. If he’s on, then the Rangers simply need to be close enough to 50% possesion/xG rates, and let their powerplay and elite level talent do the rest of the work.