Welcome to another edition of Blue Seat Bookie! I am going to be out of town for the first half of the coming week, so despite a 5-game slate on 12/18, I wanted to get some picks in that look extremely promising before I hop on a plane to Chicago.
Define the Great Money Line: Record 3-5
Pittsburgh Penguins defeat Carolina Hurricanes +105
Pittsburgh is absolutely steamrolling teams right now. They are the scariest team in the NHL as they keep racking up wins and Crosby defies Father-time with a 40 point season in 30 games. What looked like would be a difficult season for Pittsburgh quickly turned into a heater that now has them 3rd in the Metro 2 points behind the Canes. Despite how good of a system the Canes run, I think they are going to have their work cut out for them in order to stop the momentum of Pittsburgh. Both teams being top 10 in xGF categories makes for a great game, but I think Pittsburgh has the better finishing talent for this kind of matchup. Should be a great afternoon game.
Pull up the Covers: Record 5-3
New York Rangers -1.5 over the Blackhawks +115
After defeating the Flyers 6-3 and getting their 6th win in a row, the Rangers are on fire right now. They are finding ways to win games not only against some really good teams right now, but are defeating the teams they should. That was not always the case at the start of the year where they seemed to play down to “lesser” opponents. This will be the second half of a back to back for the team, but the way the team is rolling right now, they should have no problem scoring goals against this Chicago Blackhawks team. Look for a 5-2 or 4-1 game here especially if Shesterkin is in net.
Overs or Unders: Record 5-3
Under 6 Goals in San Jose/Calgary +100
After an incredible season last year, Calgary has taken a tremendous step back this season. They are not the offensive powerhouse they once were when Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau were on the team. They have let in more goals than they have scored, their top six is very inconsistent, and they are average in their underlying metrics. The San Jose Sharks will be playing a second half of a back to back in this one after playing the Los Angeles Kings the night before in LA.
Despite the level of goaltending both of these teams have, I think the back-to-back factor will come into play in this one and the game will be low scoring. Calgary has averaged 2.2 goals in the last 5 games and is coming into the game having gone 4-3-3. San Jose on the other hand has averaged 3.4 goals in their last 5 games, and comes into the game with a 3-5-2 record. This might be one of those games where you don’t watch it, but bet the prop. Look for a 3-2 or a 2-1 game in this one.
Follow Tyler on Twitter @TylerRichard93
Dave’s DFS pick (7pm games only)
For those who don’t know, Dave does pretty well with DFS, and has been in the green this year on DFS hockey. His picks are geared towards large field tournaments, combining a high floor and high ceiling. The theory behind his lineup decisions is to stack top lines/powerplay units from high scoring teams with expected high goal totals (implied lives).
Top stack: Calgary L2 – Dillon Dube ($3,700)-Elias Lindholm ($6,200)-Tyler Toffoli ($6,800). Total: $16,700
As of the writing of this post, the Rangers and Calgary had the highest implied lives at 3.7 and 3.5, respectively. Calgary is not on the second of a back to back, which might give them the edge offensively. That’s what DFS is about, offensive scoring. Calgary also gets San Jose and Kaapo Kahkonen, who is not very good.
The best offensive line, in terms of pure offense, is Dube-Lindholm-Toffoli. They have a whopping 4.12 xGF/60 at eve strength since being put together, and have put up 3.64 goals/60 in that span. San Jose seems like a great opportunity with a poor goalie in net. Lindholm and Toffoli also get PP1 time, increasing the ceiling on this stack.
If you want to bet the Rangers, then the Kid Line might be the best bang for your buck, but doesn’t get PP time. The Rangers are admittedly difficult to stack right now.
Goalie pick: Igor Shesterkin ($8,300)
Igor Shesterkin is getting the horrible Chicago Blackhawks, so he’s likely the best bet for a win. With the Rangers on a back to back, there may be some additional shot attempts by Chicago as well. Shesterkin doesn’t have a high floor because the shots may not be there, but the ceiling is there with shutout potential.
Disclaimer: Lines and odds from BetMGM as of 11:30PM on 12/17/22. Odds and lines subject to change. DFS options subject to change based on game time decisions, starting goalie news, or unexpected lineup changes. Dave and Tyler may change bets based on new odds and information that becomes available after article is published. If you choose to partake, please gamble responsibly and within your means! If you or anyone you know has a gambling addiction, please seek help. Gambling is only legal in the US for those 21 years of age and older.
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