It has only been 5 games for the Rangers, and we’ve seen some excellent play from the Rangers. The overtime loss to San Jose showed the Rangers aren’t perfect, with some areas for growth. One area is that the Rangers third pair needs to be better, as it has been shaky and inconsistent. Comprised of Zac Jones and Braden Schneider, they represent two high ceiling players, but also young prospects that don’t have a full season under their belts. So there is room to grow and hopefully improve as they continue to get more NHL experience under their belts.
It’s way too early, but numbers aren’t favorable
Again, it’s way too early, but the Rangers third pair needs to be better, and the numbers are very evident of that. Schneider, who had some puck possession issues last year, has started things off where he was last year. Schneider currently has team average defensive numbers, but supbar offensive numbers:
- CF/60: 41.99
- CA/60: 53.99
- xGF/60: 2.32
- zGA/60: 2.63
Jones, who is playing in his first full time NHL role this year, has similar numbers:
- CF/60: 42.12
- CA/60: 51.85
- xGF/60: 2.15
- zGA/60: 2.73
The individual numbers are obviously something to watch, but it is important to put it in context with the team numbers.
- CF/60: 58.6 (16th)
- CA/60 50.37 (4th)
- xGF/60: 2.94 (8th)
- xGA/60: 2.4 (11th)
The team rank in the league is in parentheses just as additional context.
What we are seeing is pretty easy to analyze. While the Rangers third pair needs to be better, it’s more about the offensive metrics than their defensive metrics. There isn’t a significant enough difference in their defensive numbers, which is what you want from a third pair. It’ll be worse than the overall team, naturally given it’s the third pair, but it’s fine. The offensive numbers are where they get dragged down, and that may have more to do with role than actual play quality.
Remember, Gerard Gallant is different from most prior Rangers coaches in that he has very set roles for his players. It’s additional context that won’t show up in raw numbers.l
Rangers third pair needs to be better within their role
Here’s what we know about Gerard Gallant and how he wants his third defense pair role to play out:
- Low event hockey – do the little things right, play within the system, and don’t get scored on
- Don’t do too much, air on the side of caution
- Good defensive zone work
So when we talk about how the Rangers third pair needs to be better, it’s within the context of the role they are in. In an ideal world, their xGA numbers come down by 0.2 or so to be in line with team average, but that may be splitting hairs. The reason why their overall CF% and xGF% numbers look bad is because of their offensive numbers. They simply aren’t in a role to drive offense.
For Schneider, that likely suits him just fine. We’ve seen flashes of confidence in joining the play, which is an overall good sign. He’s always been more of a stay at home, defensively solid player that won’t put up sexy numbers, but can hold his own.
Jones, on the other hand, is more of an offensive play driver. There’s a credible argument that this role is holding back his true potential. But there’s nothing wrong with easing him into regular NHL shifts with low stress minutes. Eventually, we’d like to see him on PP2 and producing better offensive play driving numbers at even strength. That may not fit the role though, which does drive some NY Rangers rumors about Matthew Robertson being a better fit long term.
But for now, the Rangers third pair needs to be better, at least in terms of evening out offensive chances. Given their role within the lineup, they likely won’t be dominant possession players, but better than 42% shot-share isn’t setting absurd expectations or goals.
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