Beat the horse to death? Why not! The awful Pavel Buchnevich trade came up on social media yesterday, and since 280 characters isn’t enough to provide an accurate review, let’s go through this in more detail.
https://twitter.com/draglikepull/status/1495194572099629058
What started it all was a little tongue-in-cheek comment about the Pavel Buchnevich trade. Without any kind of nuance explained, it is an objectively bad trade. The Rangers traded a 70-point pace top line winger for a bottom six winger and a 2nd round pick. Again, objectively, it’s a bad trade. It’s tough to find a comparable, but Tomas Hertl is close enough to use here. It would be the equivalent of getting him, with at least one year guaranteed, for a 2nd round pick and Julien Gauthier. You laugh, but it’s close.
The reasons for the Pavel Buchnevich trade
The argument made is that the Rangers could not afford him, thus the Pavel Buchnevich trade went down. That’s been disproven many times, given how much cap space the Rangers have this season. Beyond this season, Chris Drury could have just traded him this offseason, or waited it out. Give what we know now, with or without Buchnevich, the Vitali Kravtsov debacle would have happened, so that’s irrelevant now. The cap space argument doesn’t carry much weight anymore. There were other options on the table, and all of them would have made the Rangers better this year and would have avoided this top-six RW need they have today.
Beyond cap space, the other argument was that the Rangers needed top-six space for Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko. It seems that coach and GM were not on the same page here, given it took 42 games for Gerard Gallant to put Lafreniere in the top-six. Regardless, this is a valid discussion point, as the Rangers will only be as good as their top-two picks are. Giving them proper ice time is critical to their success.
Sammy Blais’ injury didn’t help
To play Devil’s Advocate, the Rangers could really use some third line scoring. We don’t know what Blais would have brought to the lineup because he was injured so quickly. I did like his game, and I still think he would have been an upgrade on Gauthier as the 3RW.
Without Blais in the lineup, it is incredibly difficult to do a true retrospective on the trade and how it worked out. We know that objectively the value is bad. It’s tough to argue otherwise. When we add the nuance, we see how and why the Rangers moved him. But being this was Drury’s first big move, it appears he rushed into the trade and took the first one available. Whether or not he zeroed in on Blais, we don’t know, but it does appear that way.
Worth noting: If it were a 1st round pick and not a 2nd round pick, we may not be having this discussion.
Where would Buch fit today?
When talking about where Buchnevich would fit on the Rangers today, it gets a little dicey. So let’s set some ground rules:
- Buchnevich would still be on a line with Kreider and Zibanejad, and producing close to this year’s pace. He was on this past last year as well.
- All injuries and other signings still happen. It’s clear Drury wanted Goodrow no matter what. That was happening.
- For the sake of this discussion point, we are assuming all else remains the same. Injuries, etc.
- The fourth line of Hunt/McKegg-Rooney-Reaves remains the same. It’s abundantly obvious this is Gallant’s vision.
Buchnevich on the top line, but not PP1, would basically give us the same top-six as last year, just with Kakko on the second line. The third line would likely be Lafreniere-Chytil-Goodrow; which didn’t really have much success this year. The fourth line remains the same.
So believe it or not, the Rangers might still have some scoring issues on the third line. Remember, Chytil was dealing with a nagging injury, and Lafreniere would still be on the third line. Maybe Goodrow’s goal totals come down a bit too. It’s a fun exercise to see how this all plays out.
On paper, the Rangers would still better in this situation than they are today. I don’t think it takes much of a discussion to see that. The Rangers are in the market to acquire a player like him right now, so if they already have him, then in theory they’d be better, right? Think of what the Rangers would be fully healthy.
Today’s Rangers will be fine
However in execution, the Rangers found a top line by moving Chris Kreider to RW, and bumping Lafreniere to the top line. When Kakko returns, he’s on the second line with Strome and Panarin. The goal of getting these two top line minutes was bumpy for sure, and definitely frustrating, but they got there. That was the overall goal of the Buchnevich trade.
The reality of the Pavel Buchnevich trade is that both sides are right. It was an awful trade that Drury should be rightly criticized for. He mismanaged an asset and got a poor return. However, the Rangers are still fine, and will be fine for the foreseeable future. Remember we are missing the Blais impact, and whether or not he’d be a more viable player on the third line over Gauthier, who drives play but can’t score to save his life.
The Pavel Puchnevich trade is going to be one that is discussed ad nauseum for a while. It was an objectively bad trade, and it’s tough to find a credible argument that the Rangers got fair value for him. However the impact, in my opinion, is way overblown. The Rangers are currently fine, and will be fine.
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