Special teams masking Rangers poor even strength play

The Rangers are a good team. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. But they are not *there* yet. There are clearly roster holes, and their key kids need more development time. Beyond that, there is a clear issue at even strength. The Rangers are winning, mostly due to their special teams play. But the Rangers poor even strength play is a problem, and one that will hold them back.

Per Evolving-Hockey, the Rangers are 22nd in xGF/60 at 2.3, and 18th in xGA/60 at 2.47. This is at 5v5, score and venue adjusted. For comparison’s sake, the Capitals have a 2.55 xGF/60 (8th) and 2.2 xGA/60 (6th). Carolina has a league-best 2.98 xGF/60, but is also sporting a much higher xGA/60 (2.49, 20th). But the big difference between the Rangers and the Canes/Caps? Their xGF/60 is higher than their xGA/60. We can argue specific ranges for teams to fall in, but if a team is scoring more than they allow at even strength, they are in a good position to succeed.

Now when you filter this for all situations, to include powerplay and penalty kill time, the Rangers make significant leaps. The Rangers go to a 2.96 xGF/60 (14th), and a 2.75 xGA/60 (8th). Their special teams have been spectacular this season, and they have the 6th best PP and 5th best PK in the league. Again for comparison’s sake, the Caps sit at 3.07 (10th) / 2.51 (2nd) and the Canes sit at 3.48 (1st) / 2.82 (20th).

 Struggles with process

Now you didn’t need all these numbers to know the Rangers poor even strength play is a problem. Much digital ink has been spilled on their inability to drive play and finish. The powerplay, specifically that top unit, has carried the Rangers offense. The process struggles are two-fold, team construction –roster holes– and overall team process, which hasn’t really clicked yet.

The Rangers are at their best on offense when they are in deep on the forecheck, with one man pressing the puck carrier and two behind him taking out passing lanes. It’s the backbone of their 1-2-2 forecheck –I’m delinquent on a systems post, I know– and a key success factor for Gerard Gallant’s teams. Unfortunately the top six just doesn’t do this consistently.

Another issue is the consistent backcheck, with the forwards coming back to pressure in the neutral zone, slowing down the opposing rush. This allows the defense to step up at the blue line and force turnovers. That, too, has been inconsistent. Until there’s a team buy-in and consistent effort put in on these two aspects of the game, their play driving numbers at even strength will be bad.

Second line is underperforming

The Rangers will only go as their key players go. Artemiy Panarin’s xGF/60 is actually 2.26, under the Rangers’ team number. Ryan Strome is 2.34, barely above it. This is likely a product of Dryden Hunt’s 1.97 xGF/60, dragging them both down. But both Strome and Panarin have shown they can drive play without a good third piece on their line. These two need to get going at even strength, there is no other way of putting it.

Another issue is the general nature of the Rangers offense, specifically on that second line. They are very one-and-done, or at least that’s what it appears to be. The low xGF/60 for that line and the team tends to back that argument up.

Funny enough, that third line of Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier all have the top three xGF/60 numbers, they just aren’t finishing. Kreider, Kappo, Fox, and Zibanejad round out the top seven, all well over that 2.3 xGF/60 team number. For completeness, Nils Lundkvist, Ryan Lindgren, and Jacob Trouba round out the top ten.

It’s a tough pill to swallow, but the second line is a problem right now.

Caveat: These are season long numbers, not trends/recent play. 

Rangers poor even strength play will get exploited in the playoffs

The stress on the Rangers poor even strength play is logical. About 70% of the game is played at even strength, but it goes beyond that. The better team usually draws more penalties, as better skaters draw more stick penalties. That’s a bit of a generalization, but it holds true for most teams. We’ve seen this with the Rangers, as they tend to be shorthanded much more against better teams. The Caps come to mind here.

Beyond penalty differential, the playoffs are what matter more. The refs are notorious for swallowing whistles in the playoffs, especially in overtime. If the Rangers have trouble with playoff teams in the regular season, then when they hit the playoffs their struggles will get exacerbated as fewer penalties are called.

This again isn’t a problem that gets fixed overnight. The Rangers need a combination of development and a more complete roster to move into that upper echelon of true Stanley Cup competitors. Development takes time, but the complete roster is something that can be addressed relatively quickly. With no true 2RW in the system, it’s an area the Rangers will need to look outside the organization to address.

Until there is a complete roster and the kids take the next step, the Rangers poor even strength play won’t be addressed adequately. And even then, it’s no guarantee. The Rangers are good, but they aren’t great yet.