When will we see the real Rangers?

After wondering yesterday whether we should worry about the Rangers (spoiler alert: maybe it’s premature), the focus naturally shifted to when we should see the real Rangers. The real Rangers are not this sub-40% Corsi and expected-goals team we’ve seen since they went out west. The real Rangers are far better than that. They will have better process and better shooting. All of that will balance out the god-like goaltending that will come back down to Earth. The question is, when?

Our consistent message here has been Thanksgiving will be when the Rangers start to turn things around. It won’t be a complete shift, and the Rangers may still wind up a negative possession team for their season long numbers. But trends matter. The real Rangers will show up around then, and they will trend in the right direction. Or so we hope. Luckily we have two previous Gallant teams that we can use as reference points.

2014-2015 Florida Panthers

The 2014-2015 Florida Panthers are Exhibit A on when things turn around. Around Game 20 of their season, the Panthers hit a lot point in xGF% and CF%. That is also when their xGA/60 was at its highest and xGF/60 at its lowest. The five game rolling averages then shifted to much more favorable numbers.

This Florida team had some good veterans, but was also reliant on rookies and young skill players. Sound familiar?

2017-2018 Vegas Golden Knights

What a weird team. Vegas had a lot of peaks and valleys but never really cratered and then saw consistent good play after. Perhaps this was because the team was very veteran heavy as an expansion team. This was the first “positionless” hockey team we saw, at least in the modern era. They never really hit rock bottom like the Rangers, but they did appear to have a little more xGF% and F% consistency by the middle of the season.

If you want to use the 20 game market, that’s when their xGF/60 and xGA/60 numbers started returning to normal.

The real Rangers

The real Rangers, if we use Florida as a better comparable than Vegas, should begin showing signs of life around Game 20. The Rangers are 7-3-3, so they have about 7 games remaining until we should begin seeing things shift in the right direction.

Funny enough, and to show why we kept saying Thanksgiving, that 7th game is Thanksgiving Eve against the Islanders. They have a Black Friday matinee against the Bruins that should hopefully begin their turn.

Good process breeds good results. The Rangers have had bad process lately, but have banked enough points to ride out the storm. The real Rangers will have better process, and should bring with them more consistent offense and a far better showing on defense. Patience is key.