The dog days of summer are here, and the Rangers roster is basically set. The only thing looming is the Jack Eichel thing, and I think we are all getting a little annoyed at this point. Either trade him or don’t, since this purgatory status is old. That said, the plan for this summer has been executed. Chris Drury had targets, he got those targets, and he kept the players he wanted to keep. For better or for worse. But the Rangers are a win now team after this. And when you’re win now, there are no half measures, and it’s time for the Rangers to go for that Stanley Cup.
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1. Why is the time to go for a Cup now? Because the young talent –Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Filip Chytil, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Nils Lundkvist– are all either very cheap or on entry level contracts. That is when you win, when your top talent is relatively cheap. Of course that will change after next season for Fox, but the others are still all on ELCs or on a bridge deal. It’s not like these kids are role players either. They are all pretty significant contributors, or expected to be significant contributors. Playing time relative to contract cost matters, and ELCs are the best bargains there are.
2. Another reason to go for it now – the top level talent is going to get old pretty soon. Artemiy Panarin will turn 30 in October. Mika Zibanejad is 28. Chris Kreider is 30. Jacob Trouba will be 28 at the end of the season. They aren’t grandpa age, but they are all getting to that age where you are likely to see drop offs in production. There’s a chance that it doesn’t happen with some of them, but to expect no drop off from all of them would be foolish. The time to win is when they can still produce top-six stats. The key here is Panarin, who the Rangers are banking on not having a significant drop off before the end of his contract.
3. The goaltending is a factor here as well. The newly re-signed Igor Shesterkin is at the top of his game and is a key piece in any run. There are no signs of him slowing down, but there is always the “goaltending is voodoo” risk here. Goalies can fall off a cliff pretty quickly. For the Rangers, ensuring they are going for that Cup while Shesterkin is considered a sure thing is part of their plans. Now, the Rangers can win with league average goaltending, but it’s easier to win when you have a top-five talent in net playing like a top-five talent. It just makes it that much easier, especially when his deal is affordable. It always comes back to the cap.
4. So what does “no half measures” mean for the Rangers? Well aside from being one of the better Breaking Bad quotes, it means Chris Drury and company need to set the plan to full throttle. That means identifying roster needs throughout the season and aggressively filling those needs by the trade deadline without subtracting from the existing roster. That’s not carte-blanche to trade all the prospects and picks, but it does mean being aggressive within reason to make the team better. The good news is that, barring injury, holes on the roster should be in the depth areas and not with high-end talent. That means less cost to fill the holes. Of course, that is barring injury. When it comes to roster construction, there are no half measures.
5. No half measures also means an all-in approach from Rangers coach Gerard Gallant. Just having more structure and expected roles will get the Rangers to the playoffs. The Rangers will be better defensively, and the kids will be given every opportunity to earn top minutes. However the window, while open, is always closing. That means Gallant will need to make roster decisions that frustrate fans, all in the attempt to find that right roster balance. It’s not going to mean Ryan Reaves on the top line, but it may mean playing Sammy Blais over Julien Gauthier or Morgan Barron, if the former is playing well. But this is also on Gallant to properly identify those who are playing well and those who are not. He is human, after all. Stick to the current facts and not prior production.
6. The players need to buy in to the system as well. That shouldn’t be too much of a problem, given how successful Gallant has been in that department in the past. His system is aggressive, relying on players to read the play on the forecheck and through the neutral zone. Those were two key aspects missing from the Rangers under David Quinn. Another factor is that Gallant isn’t all about straight line play, he lets his best players create on offense. Each line will have their roles to perform, and that will help the mess that was the Rangers offense last season. With the system and roles set, buy in shouldn’t be a problem.
7. The current window is likely going to last as long as Panarin is producing. To that point, the Rangers can keep the window open longer by developing top scoring talent through the draft and the minors. This year’s draft was a little bit of a shift away from high ceiling talent, and that was a little alarming for more than a few fans. However the Rangers did get some high ceiling picks in the middle rounds, so there is some hope. Perhaps that was the approach because the 2021 draft was a bit on the weaker side. We will know more after the 2022 draft, which is loaded with talent. The Rangers will need high end skill to continue cycling through the system, as it will make cutting ties with some players an easier pill to swallow. Strong drafting and development keeps the window open longer.
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