Irresponsible Rumormongering

Skip Jack Eichel, the Rangers should offer sheet Elias Pettersson

As much as we love to talk about Jack Eichel, it’s unrealistic he winds up with the Rangers. It would be in inter-conference trade, and he’d likely cost too much off the roster. Plus the LA Kings have much better center prospects to make a deal. If the Rangers want to go get a center, then perhaps they should look at a different team. One that is cap strapped. Perhaps the Rangers should just look at Vancouver and offer sheet Elias Pettersson.

The Canucks are in cap hell right now. They have just $16 million in cap space next season with both Pettersson and Quinn Hughes up for new deals. They also have nine forwards and just two defensemen signed. There’s just not enough cap space to get everyone signed. They will likely buyout Braden Holtby and save $3.8 million in the offseason. They save another $1 million buying out Loui Eriksson. Is $20.8 million enough?

Offer sheeting is generally frowned upon in the NHL, which is silly. It’s an “unwritten rule” that you don’t offer sheet someone. If that’s the case, then write it out of the CBA next time. Until then, it should be a viable way to make things interesting in the offseason.

The offer sheet cost

Getting Pettersson won’t be cheap. The Rangers would need to come in big. Think seven years and at least $70 million. That $10 million cap hit would take Pettersson through his age-29 season. It’s something the Rangers can afford. After all, that’s what Jack Eichel’s cap hit is today.

For Vancouver, it would be very difficult to match that and also dress a roster. Even using the $20.8 million cap space scenario above, and adding $3 million by bribing Seattle to take Antoine Roussell, the Canucks are still going to be hard pressed to match it. That would leave them $13.8 million to get Hughes, 4 defensemen, and 3 forwards under contract.

In terms of draft pick compensation, remember that the package is calculated based on the AAV of the contract length, or the AAV of the full contract amount divided by five years, whichever term is shorter. In this case, it would be $70 million over five years, since five is less than seven. Thus the cap hit is $14 million for compensation purposes. That’s four first round picks.

Elias Pettersson is worth four first round picks. Full stop.

Pettersson is worth it

There aren’t many centers in the league that jump right in and put up 25 goal, 60 point seasons. Pettersson did it twice in his first two seasons. There’s a strong case that he will put up bonkers numbers with the loaded talent the Rangers have up front. Plus, he’s only 22 years old.

Pettersson’s first three years have been ridiculous. While you’d like to see more from the xGF/60 and xGA/60 bars, they are still in the blue. Given the lack of talent with Pettersson in Vancouver, I think it’s safe to say he’s being dragged down by his teammates.

While WOWY’s are a bit noisy, especially in a short season, the above statement looks valid. Pettersson brings players up to his level, and they are far worse without him on the ice.

Given the difficult decision looming with Ryan Strome, there’s room to upgrade from him immediately. Pettersson is one of those kids that is absolutely worth it.

No matter how much we want to will this into existence, an Elias Pettersson offer sheet is highly unlikely. GMs just don’t do offer sheets anymore. It’s a shame really. The NHL offseason could be so much more fun with offer sheets.

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  • Interesting – but I would pass on anyone who would cost 4 first rounders unless their name is Gretzky.

    Pettersson would be a nice addition no doubt (please not Eichel). But if the Canucks have cap issues then a more prudent approach would be to deal from our surplus of low-cost wings and up and coming d-men and make the Canucks a deal they can’t refuse.

    Seems like that would be a win-win as opposed to just giving up four #1’s.

  • If Petterson is the last piece of the puzzle, yes. But, what if you need draft picks a year or two or three down the road to build that roster for the final push? It is the formula that Cup-winning teams have been employing in recent years. Seems unwise to delete all your options on one throw of the dice.

    • The Rangers farm system is stacked right now (except at center) so if there was ever a time they could afford to do it, it’s now. That being said the article is based on the Rangers extending an offer sheet to Pettersen which won’t happen. Therefore putting together a nice package of picks and an established player seems like a better option. The bigger issue is that the Canucks would likely want Buch, Strome, or perhaps Miller in a trade and do we want to give them up? It’s a tough call for sure but given how stacked the Rangers are on defense, with the young guys already playing plus the guys in the farm system, it seems to me that Miller might be the likely option although I hate the thought of letting him go.

  • Hard pass on this, even before the kid caught covid. Too much of a string bean physically still, Pettersson is the type of player that will miss a fair amount of games to injury annually.

      • Pettersson has missed time during his ELC, 2 out of 3 years he didn’t play a full schedule(not including 19-20.) Missed a month his rookie year, currently on LTIR. He’s tremendously talented, but a stiff breeze can knock him over and NHL talent puts him on dream street.

        Paying a guy $10mm/yr to miss a month a season(with a chance for more) is risky for a guy who has never seen playoff hockey(as a pro) besides on TV.

        You could pay him close to $5.5mm on a 3 year bridge deal and only give up a 1st & 3rd and Vancouver would still be hard pressed to match. Make it signing bonus heavy and they’d really be hosed due to differences in US/Canada tax policies.

        He’d then have arbitration and 1 year to UFA.

        • Reen, completely agree with you. I would stay away from both of them as far away as possible

          JackMehoff , perhaps you could educate us “morons” about the game of hockey. Quite obvious you are seeing something we are not. Would love to hear your in depth analysis

          • Always amazes me how many retired, Stanley Cup winning NHL coaches and scouts we have on these sites. Then, of course, there are those who made the upper echelon of playing high school hockey and suddenly think they can analyze the NHL landscape better than JD, Jacques Martin, and Gorton. No doubt about it, egos abound with folks like JackMeHoff

        • Why on earth
          would he sign 3×5.5? He will get 3×7.5 easy in Vancouver. The only way to get a player to sign an offer sheet is to knock his socks off with your offer.

          • Pettersson won’t get 3x $7.5mm from Vancouver because Benning has hamstrung himself with all his other bottom 6 overpays. Unless the above buyouts happen, they’ll have around $13mm to take care of the other RFAs, fill out the roster, then take care of Hughes & Pettersson. The RFAs on 10% raises gets the number between $6-7mm and a 21 man roster. Every dollar above $2mm for Hughes limits what Pettersson gets and limits term to a 1year bridge deal.

      • Nice user Id too! Straight out of Animal House, Back to School, and Fast Times at Ridgemont High which gives us a fairly good indication of the intellectual capacity you are working with doesn’t it?

    • Not sure about the pre-madonna designation because I think anyone playing for Buffalo right now has a right to whine. However, I would be leary after back surgery and 4 first round picks is too much.

  • Pouching Elias from the Canucks would be a stupid and shortsighted move. The Rangers are also in Cap Hell and have a bunch of young players who like Pettersson will soon become restricted free agents. Do the Rangers want to get into signing wars with other clubs. I am sure others teams would love to take Fox, Shesterkin, Kappo, Lafreniere, Kravtsov, Lindgren or Miller off the Rangers hands for a few drafts pucks.

    Besides as much as I like Petterson skill set, he is somewhat frail and his body would not hold up to the constant poundings by the heavy Eastern teams.

  • What is the pipeline like for the Kings of young Ds? Could there be a trade of prospects combined with picks?

  • I like the idea. Honestly the rangers may not have enough room or cap in 2-3 years to pay all the kids currently on the roster. Add in the kids still in the pipeline. So honestly no 1st round picks (barring a rangers trade since they likely can’t keep everyone) for the next 4 years which will be their window of contention may just be the price of contending.

    Dave can you (or another writer) discuss this topic? In my mind I see three 1st line RWs and three 1st line LWs on this team once they all hit their potential. Can the rangers afford to keep them all on the roster once ELCs are up? They already have 17 million of an 80 million cap hit locked up on the left wing for the better part of a decade. How do you add in LAFs next contract? How do you manage a roster where the LW position alone takes up 1/3 of you total cap? How do they spread out the minutes? If minutes are spread out this will affect each players point totals and therefore how much they will be paid on their next contracts. We already see the effect of PP time on point totals and playing time.

    This is obviously a great “problem” to have but they still have to deal with it.

  • If Rangers do that we could expect offer sheets on Miller, Lafrenier, Kakko, Fox, Chytil etc. just not worth it..

  • The Rangers will not trade for nor sign any FA for the 9-10 million cap hit. The have 3 NMC players who could be expendable within the next 1-2 years…Kreider,Zib, and Trouba. With Barron coming, Rangers will have to decide whether to keep Strome or look for another 7 million center.Most likely they will resign Zib and he will be that big contract. Too many other young players to pay in near future.

  • Do not like this idea at all. He is not worth the trade value and his cost will be almost the same as Eichel. We need Ryan O’Reilly type of center. I remember someone after loss to Carolina wanted us harder to play against. So keep looking for centers who fit that role and not injured and character flawed (Eichel) centers

    Agree with Jay in Toronto we should be checking with LA

    One more remark. I remember we signed Rooney for his good faceoff records. So after joining Rangers his stats in line with all other Rangers centers below 50 percent. It is a glaring issue that this organization keeps refusing to address

    • I agree. I would prefer that they target a guy like Lindholm or even Kuznetsov, who I understand may be available and either of them would carry a lower cost than Eichel or Pettersen. I understand that Morgan Baron is playing well but not sure we have much at center behind him. If the cost is too high, I suppose we could just wait to see how Baron develops to see what we may really have here.

  • There is a reason why it is so rarely done in hockey… Habs got plenty of crap for their Aho sheet… We have enough premium assets to get a center like Sean Monahan and see if he can revive what has been a promising career…

    • I fully understand your point but Monahan has a 44% face-off win percentage and that we already have. If they are going to make a move at center I believe it needs to be a significant upgrade from what we have now and Monahan won’t do it.

  • Offer sheets are not good for the game in a hard, flat cap era. They can over inflate value not just for the player being offered, but fir all players. That just makes it harder to field a competitive team within the cap. It needs to be gone in the next CBA. GMs don’t do it, not because it’s frowned upon, but rather because it hurts their team as well. This signing is a bad idea on many levels. In addition, we already have a team that can compete for the Cup

  • Trade with LA and get a young Center prospect — sacrifice one of our D prospects and our 1st rounder this year, or our next 2 first rounders. Could also focus on someone like Seth Jarvis or Newhook … with the latter they could even get creative, trading for Ryan Graves, then protecting him in the expansion draft and trading him back to the AVs. There are a lot of avenues to explore that would cost a fair price — not these exorbitant prices bandied about and including four 1st rounders (Pettersson) or the equivalent thereof (Eichel).

  • This is the exact mentality that gets the franchise running around in circles for decades. I’m assuming you are saying this in jest. Because no player is worth 4 first round picks. Even for McDavid this would be a tough decision. But this truly is a thought process that the front office would seriously consider. They have wanted this kid forever.

    While you make a decent argument for, I would rebuke with why not take Byfield over Laffy last year if you need a elite young center so badly? The front office knew they locked up Panarin and Kreider on LW. You had Kappo and Kravstov on RW. And down the middle all you have is Chytil from this rebuild.

    As of last year we are still taking elite defensemen with our 1st round picks. Let’s assume every pick from round 3 and above is/has a serious potential to make the NHL. Since the start of this rebuild we have taken 7 defensemen, 4 centers, 4 wingers in those rounds. But wait it gets better. We have traded or acquired another 9 more defensemen.

    Nick Ebert for Vlad
    Trouba for Pionk
    Fox for 2, second round picks
    Bergman for McQuaid
    Hajek part of Mac Trade
    Lindgren for Nash
    Rykov for Grabner
    O’Gara for Holden
    D’Angelo for Stephan/Ranta.

    Throw in Scheider, Robertson, Jones, K’Andre, Lundkvist,

    That is 12 defensive prospects for 6/7 roster spots. I will admit the average defensemen takes roughly 3 to 4 years to be NHL ready. We have gotten lucky with Fox,Lindgren, and K’Andre being NHL ready right off the draft/trade.

    The front office had a pretty good idea as of last year that Fox, Lindgren, and Miller were legit. So why draft Scheider when you already had Robertson and Lundkvist in the background and knew about Fox/Lindgren and you had signed to Trouba to this massive long term deal? To boot they traded up to get him with 2 picks.

    Who is our most highly touted center prospect? Barron? I mean he is a 6th round pick from 4 years ago. What is his ceiling? A really good 3rd line center?

    I am not looking for the next Petersson/Eichel, I don’t need the next center we take to be a top 10 pick. I just want to see more shots at the position because like Defensemen….centers not in the top 10 take a long time to develop. Mika took 5 years to establish himself in the NHL and he was a 6th overall pick.

    I think we have 2 or 3 years starting next season to really push for a Cup. By 2025/26 we are going to be in cap hell. We just don’t have 5 years to wait for the next mika. So if we don’t trade 1 or 2 of these highly touted defensive prospects for a elite level center this offseason or next we are going nowhere fast. We have a goalie, we have the defense, we have depth on the wings, but anyone can see our team down the middle and realize take out mika and we have no chance of beating you. It is not a coincidence that Mika starts playing well and we start winning more regularly. I really like Chytil…. don’t think I forgot him. I think in the next 3 years he is going to be something special. But that is all we have. Those 2. Strome is easily replaceable. Honestly I think you could put a traffic cone and it would get 40 points with Panarin as it’s winger. Howden/Rooney/Blackwell are also just plug ins. You are not winning a cup with Mika and Chytil alone.

    • LaffyTaffy ,

      this is another excellent well thought and researched hockey post.

      I agree on most of your points and disagree on some . Let me provide the comments below

      1. The top centers in this league are not top 10 but top 2-3 and I mean Crosby, Malkin, Stamkos, Mathews. But then there are quite a few great centers in the 2-3 rounderss. O’Reily, Point, Bergeron. All of them developed quite well and fast

      2. Speaking of second rounders centers who had developed fast is Stepan. We traded him to avoid his “huge” contract and from there our center problems began. We got Lias in top 10 and marketed him as the next team leader or captain with NHL ready. Was not his fault. But it did not work out

      3. Then we made famous Mac trade. Traded Miller and got Howden another center that has not passed any tests. We could have asked for other centers who are flourishing now playing for Tampa. Instead our GM got played out again by their GM

      4. Gorton got lucky and had a second choice in 2019 and first in 2021. He probably wishes he had them reversed. That way he would have drafted Hughes and Byfield next year but you can’t complain. So we got two wingers

      5. Agree with your analysis in questioning drafting Laf. We surely had 2 LFs under contracts forever. The possibility of making the trade was something I was thinking at the time. But I am sure it was a tough marketing move to make. However, GM is exactly suppose to make tough calls especially knowing shortage of centers and abundance of wings. Trade with LA or Ottawa should have been entertained. He did not even try.

      6. Agree with your comments about Schneider trade up and selection over the center. But that was another knee-jerk reaction of losing to Carolina and new drive to make us hard to play against.

      7. I have pointed multiple times here on this blog that Rangers do not have any Center prospects and they do not seem to even want to take shots of drafting them in 2-3 rounds. So now you have Morgan drafted as center, top prospect. What do we do. we bring him to the minors to play the wing. Very smart

      8. You and others have higher opinion of Chytil than I do have. I have mentioned multiple times that I believe Kravtsov could move into the role of 2C or 3C. Just requires dedication. I saw him playing center and he was really good. And you can see now a lot signs of him worth the try.

    • I think they went with the highest guy on their ‘board’ and with Schneider it was also (correctly, IMO) wanting more ‘grit’ on the D.

    • Frankly, you are not winning a cup with Mika as the number one center with a face-off win percentage of 46.32 %. He is an excellent player but not stellar at his job of winning face-offs. Tell me the last team to win a cup with a top line center at 46%?

  • Since when is JT Miller and Brock Boeser as line mates bringing Petterson down? Get real. Who ever wrote this article has no clue.

  • I agree that Eichel is not the best option. Larkin has been brought up. The Rangers’ center depth is not terrible–it could be better. I still think finding a team willing to swap a high end center prospect (Or two) for a high end defensive prospect(s) is the better way to go. In terms of the cap and asset management a player like Lundell (FL), Turcotte (LA), Newhook (CO), Rossi (MN), Perfetti (Win), etc.

    The Rangers can move one, possibly both of Jones and Lunkvist with Fox in the lineup. This would not be a straight up one for one hockey trade but it would be a lot cheaper for the Rangers in a trade and better long term cap management. As well as setting them up for long term competition.

    It’s just a matter of looking at teams with center prospects and determining who is in the greatest need for D depth.

  • I think we are competing for the cup next year and we can’t wait on developing another center draft pick. We have a core group for a cup run. Strome is tough to trade really as he is part of the scoring all the time. Imagine a stud center on the 3rd line instead of Chytil and great on face offs too?

  • No matter how good Pettersson is, I’m not sure he’s worth giving up 4 firsts. Remember, regularly selling high draft picks was a major contributor to the recent lack of success. They’d be better off trying to work out a hockey trade if the Canucks can’t afford to sign him.

  • You know we keep talking about trying to find a center to replace Ryan but think about it the biggest negative is his age he’s 27 he’s coming into his prime so the guys you’re talking about how many are going to be that much better offensively he does everything we ask of him he plays hard sticks up for his teammates I don’t know I don’t get it never causes any trouble he sure as hell can play with and without the bread man he showed that earlier this year and he’s almost scoring appoint a game so I don’t get it

  • Haha he’s a restricted free agent, and would never sign with your crap team. Keep dreaming, thieving bastards

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