In all likelihood, Alex Georgiev is going to get traded this offseason. Even if Henrik Lundqvist retires, Georgiev is still second fiddle to Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers will strike while the iron is hot. Plenty of teams need goaltending, and while the returns may be a little inconsistent, there are still teams that will pay for Georgiev. The question is: What does an Alex Georgiev trade return look like?
With this in mind, it’s likely easier to accept a Georgiev trade. Maximizing assets is the name of the game, and there are a few different ways the Rangers can capitalize on Georgiev.
The Futures Trade
Goalies are tough to gauge on the trade market. However it seems that pedigree for young goalies has a lot to do with actual trade value. It’s why Cory Schneider, a former 1st round pick with three seasons as a backup under his belt, landed a top-ten pick from the Devils.
Georgiev doesn’t have that kind of pedigree. He’s an undrafted free agent. At 24 years old, he has two seasons as a backup, but his numbers are nowhere near sexy as Schneider’s. His career 3.00/.913 splits don’t scream trade value. However you’d assume that GMs look beyond the lines.
The Cam Talbot trade comes to mind as a decent comparable. Both undrafted free agents, both backups that would most likely succeed as starters. Talbot (and a late 7th) landed a late 2nd, mid 3rd, and early 7th from Edmonton. Talbot had better numbers, but was two years older and came with less cost certainty. It’s a trade off.
The Rangers would be looking at a similar return if they deal Georgiev.
The Hockey Trade
This is the best type of trade. There’s nothing like dealing from a position of strength to address a position of weakness. There are a bunch of teams that need goaltending, but only a few have young centers and/or left defensemen to spare.
The tricky thing here is that Georgiev’s perceived hockey value is a little low. He doesn’t have the pedigree, as mentioned above. He also doesn’t have any legitimate history other than a backup with mediocre numbers on a bad team. Georgiev has potential, but potential without pedigree doesn’t fetch much on the trade market.
In a deal like this, the Rangers would be betting on potential without much pedigree, or a slightly overpaid player worth a flier. That may be someone like Sam Bennett in Calgary, who has not lived up to the potential. Bennett is still a solid 3C, but the former 4th overall pick hasn’t scored at all. Maybe piggybacking off Artemi Panarin helps.
There’s room for a deal with San Jose as well for a kid like Mario Ferraro. The former second round pick held his own in his rookie year, but is also propped up on potential from a solid, albeit small, sample size.
The Package Deal
This is the most likely scenario, as Georgiev can be a sweetener in a bigger trade. Can Georgiev be the cherry on top to get Tomas Hertl from San Jose? Probably not since I don’t think Hertl is going anywhere.
However perhaps there’s a package around Georgiev that can land Travis Dermott from Toronto? Packages are a little tougher to gauge, but would maximize the trade return for Alex Georgiev.