Offseason

Can the Rangers still land Artemi Panarin?

With Jacob Trouba in tow and likely headed to a $7+ million contract over at least five years, the attention will turn to Artemi Panarin. Well, that is following Kaapo Kakko. But still, Panarin seems to be the free agent that everyone wants to sign, including myself. It’s rare that a point per game 28 year old becomes available, and if the Rangers add him to the long list of signings/acquisitions from this offseason, you can mark the offseason as a giant success.

The question now is, with Trouba likely headed towards a big deal, can the Rangers afford Panarin at seven years and probably $11 million (13.4% of the $82 million cap ceiling that is expected). Given John Tavares’ $11 million contract, which was 13.8% of the $79.5 million cap ceiling, it’s safe to assume Panarin will get this kind of money and term.

While I like to use cap percentage to gauge a player’s market value nowadays, the raw number is what matters when trying to fit in the pieces for a roster. As of now, the Rangers have $18 million in cap space on that $82 million ceiling, and have a good portion of this committed to RFAs. Using Evolving Wild’s contract calculator, let’s keep things cheap and give everyone two-year bridge deals so that the Panarin contract can still work. Let’s also assume Kravtsov and Kakko make the roster on opening night.

  • Trouba: $7.2 million
  • Pavel Buchnevich: $3.2 million
  • Tony DeAngelo: $2.2 million
  • Brendan Lemieux: $1.1 million
  • Vitali Kravtsov: $925k
  • Kaapo Kakko: $925k
  • Total: $15.55 million

That leaves the Rangers with $2.45 million in cap space without Panarin. Let’s go ahead and assume that won’t cut it. The magic number to cut here is $9 million. Let’s get rid of some low hanging fruit:

  • Demote Matt Beleskey – $1.075 million savings
  • Trade Jimmy Vesey without taking back salary – $2.275 million
  • Trade Ryan Strome without taking back salary – $3.1 million
  • Total: $6.45 million

That’s still not enough, and now there are no more low hanging fruit. So now the Rangers need to get creative and free up close to $2 million more in cap space in order to make this work. Burying Brendan Smith doesn’t cut it here, and leaves the Rangers about $1 million short (amazing how much an $83 million cap would have helped.

As much as we all hate buyouts, the Rangers would either need to buyout one of Kevin Shattenkirk, Brendan Smith, or Marc Staal (listed in order of cap savings from most to least, and ironically enough most likely to find a trading partner), or they’d need to find a taker at 50% retained. Assuming the buyout option is the least appealing, then it’s about finding a trade. That is no easy task.

Even if the Rangers do make this work, they still operate under the assumption that Filip Chytil will take the leap and be a solid 2C, or at least show he can grow into the role. It’s certainly risky, but at least Chytil has shown the promise and has a full season under his belt already. Landing Panarin is certainly doable, but it makes you wonder if there is a different path we aren’t seeing.

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  • Signing Panarin will be a challenge unless players get moved. This is where I think it is an either or with Krieder – unless we can move both Shatty & Smith and/or Names. We need about $6-8M for this year. Not an easy chore for Gorton.

  • Just a thought, but is it as good to retain Kreider, add Zuc back – this gives NYR what was one of the best lines in hockey (Kreider/Zib/Zuc), hope Chytl becomes a 2C and bank on Kakko adding offense. We’ve seen this high -per-year NYR contract and the movie rarely ends well unless the name Messier is involved. With Trouba and hopefully Fox living up to expectations, as the Blues showed everyone, just qualify for the playoffs and hope the matchups work out for you.

    • RD – I was thinking along the same lines with Zucc as an option

      I love Panarin – he is a game breaker and always in the middle of everything good – love what he would bring to this team – I would HATE paying him $11M – He might be worth it in todays’s warped NHL salary structure but it would be tough to make that cap hit work without dumping Kreider, which is not an option Dave discussed.

      I like Duchene a lot – he is a top notch guy on the ice. Drives to the net and can dish – I’ve never heard the comment about being a bad locker presence. From what I have seen on the ice he seems to be well respected. – I would HATE paying him $9-10M.

      I love Zucc – he is the man – just look what he did when he got his head back together with NYR and what he brought to Dallas. What will his cost/term be? He was looking for 5 yrs if I recall and I would assume he is looking for Hayes type money.

      So the choices for me are:
      Panarin for $11M & 7 yrs? Still on the fence but leaning no
      Duchene for $10M/ & 7 yrs? No
      Zucc for $7.5 & 5 yrs? – No….but, I think it is worth a shot to go after him for 4 yrs @$7.25M with a NMC for the first three years.

      You could fit Zucc in just by demoting Belesky and trading Vesey. I don’t know if the NYR bridge has been burnt with Zucc, but with JD at the helm there may be a way to salvage the relationship as he would be an awesome fit on this team.

      Of course Zucc is interesting in that we lose the conditional first if anyone but Dallas signs him. But we still got a 2nd and a 3rd for him and could get him back for nothing.

      • Ouch – which part of Zucc did you not like? The money? If Hayes gets $7.2M then Zucc deserves $7.25, as nuts as that is.

        We are in a period of rapidly escalating salaries vs talent/worth. Hayes’ contract has set the price of good forwards at $7M a pop. That’s nuts. The owners are doing it to themselves once again.

        Dave could you please start the lockout clock?

  • May be an unpopular opinion but I think they should just extend kreider for a ~ 2 raise and several other lower key moves. Fox Trouba and 2oa alone makes this offseason alone a rousing success, almost epic in fact. They will need a lot of room later to keep all of their own firsts assuming they pan out, I don’t think its smart to lock up 11 mill in a peaking ufa winger rn.

  • A move to take Panarin at that price could hamstring the Rangers for a long time because Trouba is going be closer to $8 million while Pararin is going to be at least $11 million. He is a fine player, but I don’t quite see him to be worth that money and I don’t think tying up that money is a wise strategy. Granted, I am not a cap space guru. But the numbers just sound scary.

  • I wouldn’t do it with Panarin, but if you’re trying to clear out salary, sending Shatty & Tampa’s 2nd to Ottawa for a 3rd or 4th is a pretty good start.

    Ottawa is $10mm under the floor and looks to be for a while. Ottawa doesn’t get much of a discount this year, but next year they get value for money.

    • Shatty won’t go to the Sens, but that’s the contract that needs to be moved along with Namestnikov and/or Strome.

  • Re-signing Trouba is a priority, and I don’t think that will be cheap, so our cap space has become an issue. Unfortunately, I think it boils down to either (1) Kreider staying, which may even allow us to sign another affordable forward, or (2) signing Panarin and trading Kreider, plus making other moves. I can’t see the economics working to let us have Trouba, Kreider, AND Panarin. (but, then again, I’m not Gorton or Davidson). Personally, I prefer option 1.

  • I think if we take a run at Panarin it means we trade Kreider. Like it or not.

    I hate the idea of burying Smith in the minors but it’s better than a buyout. I can’t believe there is not a deal with Toronto for Smith or Shatty with Salary half retained. They’re in cap hell if Marner gets $11mill . They could have a $33 mill line and no D. They’re losing Gardiner, Zaitsev is wanting out. They had Hainsey on the right side at a $3mill cap hit and talking about resigning him. Shatty is not an upgrade? Toronto is an easier sell than Edmonton or Ottawa.

  • Panarin is the stud that pushes us over the top. He has the Russian heritage that will help Buch and Kraftsov feel comfortable. Put them together on the second line with Chytil as the C and we could have a very dangerous line. Kakko or Krafsov goes on the wing on the first line with the other winging for Howden on the 3rd line.

    The only way to let the kids flourish is to let them play, but also have some studs take the heat for not winning. Zibby and Panarin can play that role.

    Gorton! Make the moves, clear the Cap space and get Artemi here!!!!

    • Over what? He couldn’t do anything in putting CBJ over the top. He isn’t a Superstar but would command Superstar money. Signing a 28 year old at 11/7 is ridiculous. People are complaining about Hank now.

  • Your plan does leave the Rangers with eight defensemen. The obvious solution is to deal Shattenkirk at half retained salary – something which should be done anyway with the current crop of right defensemen. That puts the Rangers $1 M to the good.

    Unfortunately, I fear the RFA numbers look optimistic. However, I see all the problems as solvable. The cap issues are not a reason not to pursue Panarin.

  • Dave, come on, don’t say everyone wants to sign Panarin. I do not! There are plenty of posters on this site that agree with me. A lot of them much more knowledgeable than myself. Say “most people” and I will agree, however, “most people” don’t understand what it is the Rangers are trying to do here. They want instant gratification and have no patience for a rebuild. I am certainly not including you in this group. In fact, it is my belief that the Rangers understand that signing Panarin is a fools errand and has no place in their rebuild. I guess we shall see, but please not everyone wants this to happen!

  • Leaves the team with 0 depth and a maxxed out cap situation. It’s pie in the sky to think all the rookies will acclimate and play well enough to stay on the roster for a full season.

    Better plan is to bring in a couple of quality forwards (think middle 6) to round out the lineup, provide depth and insurance for the rookies. These can be trades or free agent signings. I trust Gorton is scouring the trade market for these types.

    Panarin is a luxury that doesn’t really fit on this version of the Rangers right now. Lastly, I have a feeling some team is going to blow him away with contract that just wont make sense for the Rangers.

  • A lot of salary has to be cleared to fit Panarin…..JG is def up to something tho and I think its getting back into the top 10

    • How do they do that without the #20 pick? The only other option I see is trading Kreider. Does any team in the top 10 trade that pick for Kreider? I’m not sure.

      • Kreider plus… Buffalo and the Oil are under tremendous pressure to win now. They need NHL players more than prospects

    • Buffalo doesn’t need another top 10 pick, as all it will do is give them more good kids to screw over in 2 years. CK and Smith to Buffalo for the 7th pick. We retain half of Smith’s salary. Or Georgiev and CK to Anaheim for the 9th pick. Time to get crafty.

      Look for Vesey and Shatty to Edmonton for Puljujarvi and a 2nd rounder. Lots of deals to be made out there. Need to clear Cap space whether we use it on Panarin or not. Jesper Fast to Philly for a 2nd round pick. Look for us to get a speedy winger somewhere during the draft. Howden and Shatty to LA Kings for their first round pick. Everyone looks at the high salary guys to move, but we have tons of options. Skjei makes good money too.

      JG & JD the new dynamic duo!

  • why would Panarin want to sign with NY. Quineville and more money are in florida. That team is playoff ready.

    maybe Duchene is a better option in the long run.
    OR no one at all. idk.

    • I guess Kreider lost the coin flip last night with Brooks, so now he’s going to be traded. After the draft maybe Kreider wins the coin flip and according to Brooks we should sign him to an 8 year $60 million contract … it just all depends on that coin flip. 😉

    • Brooks says Kreider is worth $6.5M and Hayes got $7.2M??? And why are we trying so hard to trade him to get into this year’s draft when we could trade him at the deadline and get bonus picks for next year’s draft, which is supposedly much deeper?

      Buch is on the table with Kravtsov and Individual #2 coming in? I cannot believe JD would let them be so short-sided..

  • On the previous thread Joe posted the following:

    “Right now, I’d say just about anything is on the table. I also have confidence in JG and JD to make the right deal(s) and avoid the wrong ones. Sometimes the deals you don’t make are just as important as the ones you do.”

    That stated, I’m in the camp that Panarian is over rated, and is too damn expensive for my taste. Let him go to Florida to tan himself, along with Bob, and their wives, who are best friends. With an additional cap space available to us, there are plenty players who would fit in better, and we won’t be in a cap HELL within the next three years, when the Kids come off their entry contracts. Bottom line, re-read Joe’s post above, and do the right thing, walk away!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Hi all,

    Just a side note I keep hearing that Laine is a UFA/RFA at the end of the season or next. Besides a trade scenario where we would have to trade a lot (3 plus players, picks galore) is there any way we can sign Laine? Like an offer sheet or something? Reason why I am asking is if we do not get panarin rangers can resign Kreider, get 3th/4th line players. Then lundqvist’s contract plus a few others are off the books in a year or two.

    Laine is only 21, 6’5 can be a 30-40 goal scorer, would have kakko/hughes on his line. Lets just say rangers sign or trade for Laine we would get a franchise player. If there is a player I would want to sign for 6-8 million a season its Laine, he would be worth that price. Imagine the locker room walking in seeing young players all wanting to win, ready to win, and a pretty large team finally. Kreider, Kakko, Trouba, Laine, Mika, just to name a few. Lemieux, Reeves maybe even Colin Miller (def) add depth and toughness. Its like putting together a puzzle and you are just a few pieces away from putting it together.

    Selling points from JD and JG
    1) Rangers are a playoff bound team/soon to be contender
    2)Solid lines, good defense
    3)Kakko and Laine both Finnish born players could gel
    4) Rangers would no longer throw 10 plus million to a player
    5) Laine not just missing piece but can be part of the core of rangers for years to come

    I know again its a pipe dream but Laine or someone like him is what the Rangers should be looking at. It would also show the rangers commitment to not just winning but contending for years to come. JD and JG would both be considered great GM/President. Its like thinking outside the box and making a deal to improve your franchise for years to come.

    If its not Laine there can be someone else worth getting. What do you guys think? Can it be done or is there another player out there worth researching and signing?

    • You and every other person on the planet would love to have Laine on their team. A major reason why Trouba is a Ranger right now is Winnipeg has to find ways to resign their key players, Laine being number 1. The Jets aren’t letting him get away.

  • Brooksie said prob no offer sheet to Marner Pointe or Matthew Tkachuk. I hope he is wrong. If Kreider gets us back into the first round and Zuc re signs with Dallas….We are only really losing 2 firsts If we landed one of those kids

      • JG may have gotten too good a deal. Had the 3rd become a 2nd on a Zuccarello signing, I suspect that he would have resigned with the Stars, but losing a first may be giving them second thoughts. One never knows how things will play out and Gorton can just make the best guess he can. A 20% chance at a first may be better than a 75% chance at a second.

  • I wasn’t big on spending what is likely $8M on Trouba but it is done (and likely smart). We have plently of d-talent relative to strength of our overall team to evaluate so back to the offensive focus.

    Panarin is a great player and I don’t begrudge these guys asking for the big $$$ but we need to keep our powder dry. We have a lot to digest by next season.

    One of the best things about watching the playoffs is to see how much talent is out there – particularly wings and centers. Let’s let JG find that diamond on the rough for $5m per…..

  • The upside on Panarin is crazy high, if the right moves can be made without losing the combination of youth and needed talent, I say you go for it, because of his skill and age.
    Signing him doesn’t just accelerate the re-build, it’s a crazy foundation for years, heck he is icing for years.

    Zucc is aging out of the train that this teams on, sorry Zuccarello, stay in Dallas you look ok in green.
    I do not feel Duchene is an east coast guy, leave him wondering elsewhere.

    Besides, this team is so young, you know they love peanut butter N jelly, and we all know what PB&J needs…

    😉
    cheers,

    LGR

  • There will come a time when NYR have to pay a guy 11 million a year, and that time will be when there is a guy they drafted themselves who is worth that much. Hopefully not beforehand.

  • Lurking in the background in all of this is July 1 2021…Shatt Staal Smith Henrik and 25 million dollars is def gone

  • If it’s true that Edmonton wants a 3rd liner for Puljujarvi, why aren’t we all over that? Kreider, Namestnikov and TB’s 2nd rounder for their 1st rounder and Puljujarvi.

  • Caley Chelios

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    BREAKING NEWS: Julien BriseBois stated today that forward Ryan Callahan has been diagnosed with degenerative back disease and recommended that he no longer play professional hockey.

    • If so I’m so sorry for the man who wore his heart on his sleeve. Here’s to nothing but best wishes for Cali, and hopefully good luck with his health in the future………….

    • That’s really too bad. He’s from Rochester and was a shoe-in for a nice leadership role on the Sabres. What a tough way to go out for sure.

  • Larry Brooks
    @NYP_Brooksie
    Rangers will not extend QO to Claesson, Post has learned. Did a creditable job as seventh D last season but just no space on roster. Thus becomes free agent.

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