A look at moving around from the #20 pick

With one of Kaapo Kakko or Jack Hughes secured with the second overall pick, it’s easy to forget that the Rangers also have the 20th pick in the draft. Based on Corey Pronman’s draft rankings (sub req’d), the draft appears to be in a few tiers of talent:

  • Hughes/Kakko
  • The next five or so
  • Picks 8-12
  • Picks 13-16
  • Picks 17-23
  • Picks 24-31

The Blueshirts will get someone in the top tier, that we know. We also know that barring something drastic, the Ranges will likely not get into that second tier through the 7th pick. It’s also unlikely the Rangers get into the 8-12 range without a roster sacrifice. But to get into the 13-16 range, that’s something doable.

Looking at @HockeyStatMiner’s comparable trades to move up in the first round, there’s a precedent for this:

Given the tiers from Pronman’s list, it looks like the Rangers would want to move into the #16 spot at worst in order to grab someone from the next tier. This assumes that someone doesn’t go off the board earlier of course.

So the question here is, can the Rangers move up to #16 (Colorado) in exchange for #20 and #49? It seems like that’s fair value. That could be the difference in getting someone like Cam York or Ryan Suzuki, as opposed to Thomas Harley or Raphael Lavoie. It’s not a significant upgrade, but an upgrade nonetheless.

On the flip side of things, if there is no one enticing on the board at #20, the Rangers could theoretically trade down as well. Again leveraging HSM, here are the comparable trades at that slot:

I like HSM’s proposal here, targeting Carolina’s 28th pick and getting back NYR’s #37 pick in exchange for the #20. The Ducks could be a target here at #29 and #39 for #20, although that is lesser value than the Carolina proposal. The Kings and #22/#33 could be an option here too.

Now all this is based on who is still on the board and who is on Gordie Clark’s board. They moved up last year when K’Andre Miller was still within striking distance. I happen to enjoy the hypotheticals that HSM puts up regularly. There are a bunch of options at #20 with the way the draft is lining up.

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  • The Rangers need to be taking another forward at 20, which means that there needs to be a run on D men taken after #10, allowing some scoring forwards to drop.

    Problem is that teams like Vancouver, AZ and Minny are starving for scoring so players like Kaliyev and Newhook should be off the board between 10 and 15. The guy that MAY drop is Brink, and if he’s there at 20, then the Rangers should be all over that.

    Looking at trading up, the Rangers may get to 15 or 16, realistically. Trading higher into the draft than that will not be possible. If Kaliyev is sitting there at 15 or 16, then the Rangers should pull the trigger to trade up, IMO.

    If the Rangers end up picking a D man with the 2nd first round pick, then I will be very disappointed. The 20 pick has York or Seider’s name written all over it, which would be very, very disappointing.

    Hopefully, as what happens in almost all hockey drafts, a forward drops (Akil Thomas should have been the pick!! 102 pts in 63 games this past season in juniors), like last year in the 2nd round, and we end up picking a goalie for God’s sakes. Brutal.

    • I just looked at the draft order, and I see 5 teams or less taking a D man from 1 to 19, not good for us at all. We also need a team to take Spencer Knight (goalie) before our #20 pick.

      We need some more hockey good luck.

    • Agree with you on the need for forward depth, but if Seider is there they will probably take him. If we wanted to move up to 16 that’s Colorado’s pick, I think we could offer Namestnikov and #20. They were interested at him in the draft. He was ok last year but he doesn’t seem to be part of the long term picture. He’s probably worth a second and we are probably better off clearing the space

  • If Caufield is a value pick at 5 or six, and he is, then Brink is an absolute steal at 20. Nice article on him in the Athletic. This kid is an all-offense, high energy right wing. Might be worth moving up a little bit if he’s still at 17 or so.

  • I have to agree that our second #1 pick should be a forward, best case scenario a left wing. I’ve stated before I like Arty Kaliyev and that we should draft him for his hands, and size. He is a sniper, and should be ready in a year, or two, given he gets a decent coach in Hartford. A trade for our 20th pick, and Names would work very well for us, and would be a fair trade for sure. Let’s draft the best forward available, that’s what’s more important than anything else!!!!!!!

    • Kaliyev would be my top forward choice. There are some other interesting players out there too like Pavel Dorofeyev (who they have been scouting) and Ilya Nikolayev(center) . I don’t think they would need to trade up to get either one of those two.

      • Pavel Dorofeyev —- yum. High on my list and I would grab him with our 2nd 1st rounder, even if some might suggest we reached to get him.

  • We need to choose forwards. Make any deal, dangle the 20th and a player for the 15th or so, but get us some guys who can put the puck in the net. We have so many bottom 6 forwards, please use them as trade bait. There is always a surprise at the draft and I am sure this year is no exception. Someone may fall to the 20th pick who is ranked 12th or so.

    I am hopeful that JD brought over his “draft cheat sheet” from his prior team, just to use in case Gordie decides to grab a lefty defenseman with the 20th pick.

  • The Rangers do need forwards and I would like to see them grab one. However, if the best player and with the highest ceiling left is a defenseman, then they should take him. They can take forwards later or trade up, etc. I think that no matter what you take the most talented player available.

    • Peter, IMO, the players available at the 20 pick will be 6 of one, half dozen of another. Unless an extremely talented player some how falls in the draft, which is always a possibility.

      I think after 15 or 16, it’s a crapshoot after that.

  • There will be more than a few players in that 3rd tier available at 20.

    There’s potential to be a stupid run of D with Byram, Broberg, Seider, Harley, York and maybe Söderström all going before 20.

    Montreal, Edmonton, Anaheim all looking for D, Vancouver, Arizona & Chicago are wild cards.

    There’s a possibility of trading up with Montreal if the breaks don’t go their way and Broberg/ Seider go off the board early.

    • “There will be more than a few players in that 3rd tier available at 20.”

      Exactly, I agree 100%, which is what I was saying to Peter above.

  • Kaliyev has scoring skills you can’t teach. His negatives are fixable, he’s still only 17 years old, he’s got good size and he’s still growing. IMO, he doesn’t make it past the 12th pick, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s top 10. I think Podkolzin and Dach get picked after him.

  • * Move heaven and earth to try to trade #20 and #49 to get in position to draft a top 17 FORWARD (like Kaliyev, Suzuki or Podkolzin), if one is available at, say, #16.
    * If we can’t trade up, hope one of them drops to #20 and thank the hockey gods. If not, take Hoglander at #20 and hope he turns into Zucc 2.0
    * Do not under any circumstances take a D at #20 or trade down.

    • Zuccarello as a UDFA with his great production throughout his early career is value for money.

      Higlander with his okay production against kids and not even making a bad U20 Swedish roster(dunno why he didn’t play in U18) in the latter half of the 1st round is destruction of value.

        • He plays like a redass, goes to the dirty spots of the ice; just doesn’t score enough for an average sized player, let alone an undersized one.

          • Btw, for the record he didn’t play in the U18 because, well, he wasn’t U18. But he did play in the U20 where he had 7 points in 8 games. And he had okay production playing against men in the SHL, not kids. Other than that, you have him down pat.

          • He did not make the WJC U20 team.

            At U18 last year he went pointless.

            So keep on digging.

          • He played in the 2018 U18 worlds as a late 2000 birthdate and went pointless in 7 games.

            As for elite prospects, it’s *your* fault you can’t grok what the boxcars look like. According to the IIHF website, he is not on the roster for the WJC for 2019.

            He played in matches when they evaluated invites, DID NOT MAKE THE SQUAD.

  • Two interesting articles today in The Athletic (subscription):
    * A ranking of the top 50 SCF’s with 1994 as #1.
    * A re-draft of the 2016 draft with Adam Fox now going at #9 (was taken 66th).

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