Can the Rangers grab elite talent at the 10th overall pick?
As the days and games keep on moving along, it seems the Rangers will pick at tenth overall in the 2018 draft. There are a few other possibilities that make the Rangers either a top-seven or a top-three pick, but it’s getting more and more evident that the Blueshirts will pick at that 10 spot.
Rasmus Dahlin isn’t happening unless the Rangers win the lottery. At tenth overall, that’s about a 3.5% chance of happening. Filip Zadina and Andrei Svechnikov, currently slotted at #2 and #3 respectively, are only an 11.4% chance of happening. Even if the Blueshirts somehow get to 7th overall, that increases their odds to 6.5% (Dahlin) and 20% (top-three). Suffice it to say, we should be preparing to pick at tenth overall.
Make no mistake, the Rangers are going to need some help to get elite talent at 10th overall. The good news is that there is always the potential for that to happen. After all, Matt Barzal slipped to #16 because, well, Boston.
I spoke with Josh a little bit, and he seems to get the impression that the guys most likely to fall far enough for the Blueshirts to grab them would be Adam Boqvist or Oliver Wahlstrom, ranked at #5 and #6, respectively. It’s an interesting dynamic when you dive into it.
For Boqvist, a defenseman, to fall, then Ty Smith likely needs to be a reach pick by someone in the top ten. Not unfathomable, but not likely either. There’s also the potential for Evan Bouchard to be a reach pick in the top ten, pushing Boqvist out. Boqvist has the higher ceiling of these guys, but you never know what GMs and scouts see.
As for Wahlstrom, someone like Joel Farabee could be a reach pick and cause Wahlstrom to fall. He’s probably the most likely to fall out of the top seven, which appears to be the cutoff for elite talent this year. Of course there’s always Quinn Hughes, who seems to be right at the 8-10 range.
Assuming the Rangers don’t win (or completely lose and fall to 12) the lottery, there’s a good chance they could see one of Wahlstrom, Hughes, or Boqvist fall to them. I’m a big fan of cautious optimism, and seeing three guys ranked 6-9 (nice) who could possibly fall is always a positive sign. Optimism for the win.