Playoff time is here, and the Rangers are facing a familiar foe in the Washington Capitals. But these are not the same Washington Capitals that came back from down 3-1 in 2009, they are a more balanced team that plays defense and has decent goaltending. Then again, these are not the same New York Rangers, who have more experience, more skill, and a more level-headed coach this time around. The Rangers did win the season series against the Caps 3-1, outscoring them by a wide margin (17-6), but none of that matters now, especially since the Rangers haven’t played them since the trade deadline. Both teams have a different look to them, so let’s look at each aspect.

Goaltending

Henrik Lundqvist vs. Semyon Varlamov: This is probably the easiest to evaluate. Varlamov isn’t a rookie anymore, but he’s still a solid goaltender. Regardless, he’s no Lundqvist.

Advantage: Rangers, by a wide margin.

Defense

Washington: With John Carlson and Mike Green, the Caps have two fantastic offensive defenseman, of which only one (Carlson)really plays defense. With Karl Alzner, Jeff Schultz, Dennis Wideman, and Scott Hannan likely to round out the Caps defense, their blue line is incredibly balanced, and it shows on the stat sheet. Washington ranks third amongst playoff teams in goals allowed with 197, which by the way, is one ahead of the Rangers. Since the trade deadline, they have allowed more than three goals just twice. They are very balanced offensively and defensively on the blue line, something we haven’t been able to say in a while. They also have the veteran leadership in Hannan and Wideman that will be well served in a long series.

Rangers: The Rangers biggest strength on defense is also their biggest weakness: their youth. Two rookies (Ryan McDonagh, Michael Sauer) will be expected to play big time minutes. Their top pairing in Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, of which neither have hit 27 years of age yet, will be expected to shut down Alex Ovechkin. The Rangers blue line has some offensive potential in Bryan McCabe and Matt Gilroy, if the latter sees the ice. If it’s not Gilroy, then it’s the grittiness of Steve Eminger who will need to quell the onslaught of Caps forwards who will crash the net.

Advantage: Caps, slightly.

Forwards

Washington: Washington’s vaunted offense is not as potent this season. They only have one player (Ovechkin) over 80 points, and another two (Niklas Backstrom, Alex Semin) over 50 points. However, any team that boasts those three, plus the likes of Brooks Laich, Mike Knuble, and Jason Arnott, has the potential to light up any team. Laich, Knuble, and Arnott are the blue collar and crash the crease guys, while Backstrom, Semin and Ovechkin will try to finesse their way around the Rangers. That is a scary combination, even if they only scored 224 goals this season. If the Caps crash the net, then they will be tough to beat.

Rangers: The Rangers lost second leading scorer and top forward Ryan Callahan in the last week of the season. With him out, the burden will fall on Brandon Dubinsky, Marian Gaborik, Vinny Prospal, and the other youngters to produce some offense. Lacking in primary scoring when Gaborik is cold, the Rangers best asset is the depth they have. Their third line of Ruslan Fedotenko-Brian Boyle-Brandon Prust has combined for a whopping 44 goals, including a 20 goal season for Boyle. The Rangers win when they grind it out and cycle the puck in the zone. With Chris Drury back, the Rangers have enough guys to crash the net as well. Of course, it’s a matter of executing and actually crashing the net.

Advantage: Caps, but this would be even if Callahan wasn’t injured.

Power Play

Washington: The Caps’ power play is actually worse than you would expect, only clicking at a 17.5% efficiency for the year. However, with Mike Green returning to the lineup, expect that efficiency to jump a bit. The Caps have the weapons, that’s for sure, but weapons don’t mean anything if you can’t convert.

Rangers: The Rangers power play woes have been noticeable for the past few seasons, and this year they are clicking at 16.9%. With Callahan and his 10 PPG out, the Rangers are going to need to find someone who can convert with the man advantage. Simply put, if Marian Gaborik does not generate chances and points on the power play, the Rangers might be doomed.

Advantage: Caps.

Penalty Kill

Washington: The Caps have the #2 PK in the league at 85.6% efficiency, and that is attributable to their realigned defensive structure and a new system in place to focus on defense. With seven SHG, the Caps are capable of generating offense while a man down as well.

Rangers: The Rangers have the #10 PK in the league at 83.7%, mostly due to the man in net. They do have 11 SHG, which can definitely be used to their advantage against the Caps, who have a history of “questionable back checking”.

Advantage: Even.

This is going to be a very hard fought series that is going to be reminiscent of the 2009 series. In the end, it’s going to come down to which team executes properly, and which team capitalizes on their opponents mistakes. Like the rest of the Eastern Conference, seeds are relatively meaningless, as there is no one team that is above the other.

Homer prediction: Rangers in six.
Realistic prediction: Caps in seven.
Bold series prediction: The teams will split the first four games, and the Rangers will take Game Five. The winner of Game Six takes the series.

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