The NY Rangers have oodles of cap space following the Marc Staal trade and the Henrik Lundqvist buyout. The Rangers are expected to use this cap space to bolster their roster. That may seem obvious, but there are many teams that are spending as little as possible at the moment. It’s a unique situation given the coronavirus. One are that is spoken about a lot is improving left defense. Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s name has popped up in rumors, but he’s someone the Rangers should avoid.
The Contract
This is the biggest issue with OEL. He has six years remaining at an eye-popping $8.25 million cap hit. He’s already 29 years old, so this contract takes him through his age-35 season. That is an awful lot of money to commit to a player who, at this point in his career, is marginally better than Jacob Trouba. He’s only going to slow down as he gets older as well.
It’s not just the contract, it’s the trade cost. The rumor is that the Yotes are looking for a young roster defenseman and a 1st round pick, while not retaining any salary.
Dreger on TSN says the Coyotes want a young d-man and a 1st RD pick for Ekman-Larsson. The Oilers would need the Coyotes to take on money or retain some OEL salary, Arizona is not prepared to do that, Dreger is not sure there is a fit between the Oilers and Coyotes.
— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) October 1, 2020
Not only is this contract a cap killer, but it would cost too much to acquire him. If that doesn’t spell disaster, then evaluating his play will.
A Declining Asset
OEL is not what he used to be. Or at least, he’s not what people make him out to be. OEL had one great season in 2017-2018. That was the only year where he was a net-positive in both xGF/60 and xGA/60. Every other season he’s been a net-negative in both stats, culminating in this year’s subpar performance.
This suggests that while OEL puts up around 40 points a year, the numbers are a bit inflated by powerplay performance. If the Rangers truly want to get better on LD, then is a one-dimensional overpaid player really the way to accomplish their goal?
It is a rare offseason for the Rangers, as eluded to above. They have the cash to spend, both in cap space and real life dollars. That means a lot when teams are cutting back on spending in an uncertain COVID world. This is the opportunity for the Rangers to flex their financial muscles. But they need to do so responsibly.
OEL is more name than production, and may have always been. The Rangers would be wise to avoid Oliver Ekman-Larsson. He’s just too expensive and isn’t the right fit. Quite honestly, I don’t see how the Coyotes are going to be able to move him without retaining salary.
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