A few questions for the mailbag today, all revolving around trading up or down at the draft.
Josh asks (1 of 2): Think Chicago takes the 26, 28, and 48 for the 8 and the Hossa contract?
I like the thought process. Chicago is always up against the cap, and the Rangers happen to have oodles of it right now. Hossa carries another three years and $5.275 million on his deal, but he’s only owed $1 million a year for that duration. That said, Chicago balks at this for two reasons.
- Chicago is not a budget team. They can afford to keep the contract and throw him on LTIR for the next three years.
- A true budget team will probably make a better offer, or at least one that doesn’t include the 8th pick.
That said, I think the 27, which Chicago has as part of the Ryan Hartman trade with Nashville, might be a chip to dump the contract. But again, point #1 above applies. This only really impacts the Hawks if they are looking to spend over the cap ceiling by more than 10% this summer. Anything is possible, but I don’t see Chicago as a viable option here.
Josh asks (2 of 2): Zuccarello (retain $2 million), Beleskey, and the 28 to Dallas for the 13?
This is something Tom Urtz at Blueshirt Banter covered actually. I’m not going to get into too much detail on it, but this is an overpayment. Zuccarello alone should be enough for the 13 pick, especially to a team like Dallas that only missed the playoffs because of some bad luck.
Dave (not me) asks: Is there anyone in particular the Rangers should trade up for in the teens?
This is a tough question. Unless there is an obvious outlier that is slipping, like potentially Boqvist, I say don’t trade up in this draft. Once you’re outside of the top 10 or so, there’s a marginal difference from 15-40, give or take based on who you talk to. Ideally, the Rangers actually trade back from 26 or 28 and get another pick in that range. The more picks before 40, the better.
A different Dave (I’m going to start going by last names soon) asks: At what point is it worth it to trade up from 9, and at what cost?
If you are like me and believe that 1) Montreal is going to take Brady Tkachuk at 3, a major overdraft, and 2) Ottawa can be targeted to move up and possibly target Filip Zadina, then yes trade up. However that means trading up in the right scenario, without overpaying and leveraging something you know Ottawa covets: Real dollars back and perhaps taking a contract in return.
I theorized on Twitter that there could be a framework around the 4 and Bobby Ryan for the 9 and one of Marc Staal or Brendan Smith. Bobby Ryan is due a lot of money, and is only $2 million more in cap space than Staal, or $3 million more than Smith. Given the current cap situation, the Rangers can absorb that. Assuming there is also a compliance buyout after the lockout in 2020 happens –good lord that sounded depressing– then that’s another reason for the Rangers to make the deal.
I don’t think Ottawa makes that deal as is, though, especially if Zadina is on the table. Assume the Rangers need to part with someone else. I doubt someone like Tony DeAngelo is enough to bridge the gap, so it may be one of the 26 or 28, or a good prospect. However I am of the belief there is a deal to be made there, especially since it opens Ottawa up to an Erik Karlsson trade that is free of Bobby Ryan."Mailbag: Draft trading scenarios",