Mar
22

How realistic is the number one overall pick?

March 22, 2018, by

Aside from the eventual call ups of Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil, there isn’t much for us as Ranger fans to look forward to for the rest of the season. With that in mind, the next important date –other than the date the Rangers make a coaching change– is the NHL Draft Lottery.

The NHL has very strict anti-tanking restrictions, and the team that finishes last overall only has a 20% chance of getting the first pick, and just a 50/50 chance of staying in the top three picks. At 21st in the league, the Rangers currently have a 4.5% chance of nabbing the top overall pick, ant a 14.4% chance of picking in the top three.

I guess the post could end here, but I did some draft lottery simming too.

Thanks to the good folks at Tankathon, I was able to do a bunch of draft lottery simulations. As expected, some combination of Arizona, Buffalo, and Vancouver had the top overall pick. And for the most part, those three comprised the top three overall picks as well.

Something of note: The Islanders have two picks in the lottery, theirs and Calgary’s. They actually have an 8.7% chance of grabbing the top overall pick and a 26% chance of picking in the top three. Go ahead and vomit if you want.

As for the Blueshirts, it took my only one draft simulation to get the Rangers into the top three (#3 overall). Carolina had the second overall pick in this simulation. And you guessed it, the Isles won the lottery. Ain’t that a punch to the stomach?

It took me until the 10th time to get the Blueshirts to the #2 overall pick. In those other simulations, the Blueshirts dropped to #12 in one and #11 in another, but remained at #10 for the other six simulations.

It was another 11 times to get back to the #2 overall pick. The Rangers dropped to 12 twice, 11 three times, and stayed at 10 the rest of the times. So we are getting there. Another six times to get back to #3 overall. Hooray.

It was another 18 tries before I finally got the Rangers to the #1 overall pick. So in total, I clicked simulate 47 times before the Rangers nabbed the #1 overall pick. In that span, they picked at #2 once and #3 twice.

Of course this isn’t an exact science, but the point of the exercise is to note that the Rangers likely won’t be picking #1 overall, and likely won’t be in the top three. They can also drop two spots if the ping pong balls don’t fall their way. I’d expect the Rangers to finish in the 9-11 range when all is said and done.

"How realistic is the number one overall pick?", 5 out of 5 based on 6 ratings.
Categories : Offseason

60 comments

  1. Andy says:

    “other than the date the Rangers make a coaching change” Thanks for making me laugh so early in the morning…#1 or top 3 overall is probably not going to happen. But remember the lottery slogan..all it takes is a dollar and a dream…we can still dream until it’s over…

  2. Walt says:

    Currently sitting in the 10th position, getting the top pick, and or top 3 picks is slim, to none. JG has many tools, and pick to work with, as well as a stable full of very good prospects to move up a slot, or two, but what GM would give away a shot at Dahlin? If there is someone who would, he should be relieved immediately.

    On a side note, it appears that Ryan Lindgren is seriously thinking about coming out of college early, and signing with us. I have mixed emotions about this, he has a chance to get a decent education, and probably won’t start with us next year, so why rush it? But then he could surprise us all, and make the team if he is as good a stay at home guy that they say he is!!!!!!!!

    • HARLEMBLUES says:

      I hear you on the education Walt but that can be done online or in the off season. He could learn more in Hartford.

    • mike says:

      The benefit to getting him signed, more than anything, is that we know we have him.

      With the NHL/NCAA rules if he stayed another year in college and either got hurt r had a bad season, the Rangers could balk on giving him a contract after his junior year.

      Couple that with the fact that if the Rangers find suitable and strong defensive players for next year Lindgren could see himself without a spot on the Rangers and decide to go the 4 year college and NCAA FA route.

      Not only that, but the kid still has the ability to continue his education because if he is serious about it a college degree doesn’t require a Big10 campus, just the motivation to complete his degree.

      • Walt says:

        Mike

        I went to school under the GI bill, graduated at the age of 30, and never experienced the on campus lifestyle. I insisted that my three children go out of town, live on campus, and enjoy the college experience, which I lived my thru them.

        It was so much fun going to WVU, UNC, and Penn State games with the kids, making friends with their friends,who they still keep in contact with. That is what I’m talking about when I said the on campus experience is second to non!!!!!!! The kid should finish his degree on line, it will prepare him for a brighter future, sports isn’t forever….

  3. Peter says:

    I have resigned myself to the Rangers not getting into the top 3 on draft day. However, with the number of picks and tools available to them, I am optimistic that this draft day will be one that Rangers fans will remember fondly.

  4. Peter says:

    Andersson’s debut delay by snow, Lundqvist not going to Philly:

    From Newsday: GREENBURGH, N.Y. — Rangers fans eager to get their first look at Lias Andersson, the No. 7 overall pick in last summer’s draft, will have to wait a few more days, as the 19-year-old center not be making his NHL debut Thursday when the Rangers visit the Flyers in Philadelphia.

    Rangers coach Alain Vigneault blamed it on Wednesday’s snowstorm.

    “Considering the travel dilemma right now, for both our GM (Jeff Gorton) and Lias, we decided to postpone this here,’’ Vigneault said after the Rangers’ short practice Wednesday. “‘Gorts’ should be getting back tomorrow and we’ll start from there.’’

    Gorton was in Boca Raton, Fla., at the NHL GM meetings, which wrapped up Wednesday. Andersson is with the Rangers’ AHL farm team in Hartford.

    Not playing against the Flyers means Andersson will not play the maximum nine games he is allowed before the first year of his entry-level NHL contract kicks in. The Rangers have nine games remaining this season, and Vigneault had said after Tuesday’s morning skate prior to the Rangers’ 5-3 loss to Columbus that Andersson would be with the team for the Flyers game.

    Filip Chytil, the 18-year-old center who was the No. 23 pick last summer — and who Vigneault said would also be brought up soon — played two games for the Rangers back at the beginning of the season, and so has seven games remaining that he is allowed to play without burning that contract year. The organization may have decided to just hold Andersson back and have he and Chytil come up together, and that would mean the pair would most likely join the team in time for Monday’s home game against the Washington Capitals. The Rangers also have a home game Saturday against Buffalo.

    Lundqvist sore, skips trip to Philly
    Henrik Lundqvist, who took a bad fall late in Tuesday’s game when he was crashed into by Columbus forward Matt Calvert, did not practice and will not travel with the team to Philadelphia Thursday.

  5. Hatrick Swayze says:

    All in all, I think landing 5-7 would be a swoon. Hope that we don’t drop worse than 10.

    • Jeff D says:

      Only the top 3 picks are awarded by lottery. The rest of the teams are slotted in based on standings, so for the Rangers to pick 5-7 they have to slip behind other teams in the limited games remaining.

      • Hatrick Swayze says:

        Ahh, so as it stands now its either 1,2,3 or 10,11,12. Interesting. Thanks for the info.

    • sherrane says:

      The Rangers are at #10 with 73 points. There are only 3 teams (Islanders with 72, Edmonton and Chicago with 69) who may pass the Rangers. Detroit has 65 points, so the Rangers have a 7 point lead with 9 to play. The Rangers would likely have to do no better than 1-7-1 to get the #7 pick without a trade.

      Boston and Tampa are two of the three teams with 100 points currently. It is reasonable to believe that one of these picks the Rangers acquired will be in the 25 — 27 range while the other will be 28 — 31 range. If the Rangers finish with #10, they may need to deal at least two and possibly all three 1st rounders to get into the top 5.

      • Hatrick Swayze says:

        Maybe they’ll do their best impression of the NY Jets. Will be an interesting draft for us for sure.

  6. Monty says:

    This is so disappointing: “Brendan Smith’s miserable season has ended in almost predictably miserable fashion, The Post has learned.

    The defenseman, who was assigned to the Wolf Pack after clearing waivers Feb. 9 in the midst of the first season of his four-year, $17.4 million deal, suffered a broken hand in a fight at practice this past Sunday with Vinni Lettieri.

    According to capfriendly.com, a buyout of Smith would come at the cost of $1,091,667 in dead-cap space each of the next two seasons, $3,266,667 in 2020-21 and $1,266,667 for each of the three seasons following that. If he is unable to make the Rangers and winds up in Hartford again, his cap charge would amount to $3.325 million next season and $3.275 million the two years after that.”

    – i just don’t understand what is happening in his head…

    https://nypost.com/2018/03/21/this-skinny-chris-kreider-is-even-more-indispensable-to-rangers/

    • Mancunian Candidate says:

      Pretty sure we’ll be hearing about Smith going to rehab soon. Surprised nobody mentioned Dubi’s recent alleged drug & alcohol issues when Columbus was in town.

      • Swarty says:

        I guess the key word there would be alleged…..

        • Mancunian Candidate says:

          Columbus hockey beat writer Aaron Portzline all but said that Dubinsky had a substance abuse issue, in a couple of different articles on the subject. I’d link to them but that delays posts, I think. Given that Torts sent him home for awhile in Jan-Feb it suggests that as well. After Boogaard’s death on Torts’ watch with NYR, it’s good to see that Torts was responding humanely to Dubi’s issues, whatever they are.

    • Michael R says:

      In Hartford he shall stay…sad for him

    • Egelstein says:

      Granted, we don’t know who the aggressor was in the practice fight…but even if it was Vinny, Smith should have been taking the high road not only as a veteran who should show some leadership, but especially as a guy who should be doing absolutely everything he can to get back in the good graces of the organization in the particular situation that he has put himself into. Whatever his issues are, I hope he has a very reflective spring and takes major steps this summer to correct them.

      • Mintgecko says:

        Dude his career is done as a NYR. Soon people will start to get that sense after they see all the D men with potential to try and ear a spot out of camp. NYR camp is always tough due to the free agent signings so Smith really screwed himself here. He’s going to have 2 months tops to get in the best shape of his life.

        • Egelstein says:

          I don’t disagree with you at all that he may have already tanked his career – especially in a league that can be so reputation-based in some circles, and especially now with a fight in practice added to the mix. With that said, the best possible outcome for both parties is obviously for him to get his shit together and regain his status as a potential second-pairing mainstay, unlikely as that seems right now. I expect the Rangers to do everything within their power to get him back to where he was when they gave him the contract, if for nothing more than they don’t want to suffer his NHL cap hit with him toiling in the AHL.

          The other alternative could be a bad contract for bad contract “change of scenery” trade…but even that might have gone out the window after he got in this practice fight with a teammate. The organization, even if they hate his guts at this point, is still best-served by doing whatever they can within their power to help him get back on the ice and in NHL-level shape playing an NHL-level game, though – even if the end game plan is 100% is to trade him for anything they can get the very second he looks like an NHL talent again, if he does. I won’t be shocked at all if they actually give him plenty of opportunities to prove himself (or to put it perhaps another way, rope to hang himself with) next preseason, assuming he is indeed still in the organization.

    • Dan says:

      Hearing this, makes me think of this …

      “Look here fans, the Indians are showing the first signs of life in weeks. It looks like Willie Hayes is trying to hit Rick Vaughn … and why not?! Everyone else in the league does.”

      But I really hope it was just a scrap at practice, like during summer workouts in the NFL, not anything more.

    • Playground 9 says:

      I was shocked when I heard he showed up this season in bad shape but he certainly did. Then I heard he went to about 5 weddings over the off-season. When I heard that – I immediately wondered if it was a ‘drinking problem’ because being a pro and signing such a huge deal – a normal person would have different priorities. Then he took such stupid penalties – he just was off all year.

      I say all this with the hope that – this is his problem – the bottle. Because he can turn that around if he has the will and be better than ever. So many people do. I really hope he does because he is talented and has an edge. Brendan – I hope you are back in ‘blue’ next year.

  7. Michael R says:

    It would be fantastic to somehow end up in the top 4 by lotto or a deal….Brady Tzachuck would look good in a Ranger uniform

    • Michael R says:

      Yeah we dont need a 6’3″ 200 lb kid…..thats crazy….we need 5’9 165 lb Quinn Hughes

      • D C says:

        Quinn Hughes has more points this season as a defender than Tkachuck does…
        So yeah, I’d say we need him. Tkachuck is overrated.

        • Michael R says:

          So what….how many kids on Michigan or BU will see the light of day in the NHL? How may 6’3″ 200 lb guys are in the NHL and how many 5’9″ 165 lbs are there?

          • D C says:

            So you would rather have a guy who is bigger, but not as good as the player (who also has far more potential) that is smaller..got it.
            You can’t fix stupid.

      • Egelstein says:

        For your consideration: the current NHL points leader is a towering 5’11”, weighing in at a hefty 178 lbs.

        • Michael R says:

          Yeah he’s having a great season…has great linemates too and is on a good team…..He’s still not 5’9 tho

      • James1090 says:

        I would be fine with Tkachuk or Hughes.

    • Egelstein says:

      Tkachuk very well may go in the top four; many mock drafts feature him going that early…but I don’t necessarily think he should. There’s no doubt he is getting a heavy pedigree-based reputation boost; the Fraternity of Good Hockey Men is presumably having to change their drawers regularly at the mere thought of another hard-hitting Tkachuk in the league. Regarding the Rangers specifically in this department, he also is Hayes’s cousin.

      Of the top seven/eight or so names, I believe he has the lowest talent ceiling, however. To be clear, I am not saying he is a scrub by any means…but he’s definitely not elite in any one skill area or in speed; his game is built on a tremendous motor and a tenacious attitude. There is nothing wrong with those things and his brother has done well enough, no doubt…but this skill set is probably not franchise-changing in today’s NHL. If the Rangers do score a pick that high, I’d personally rather see them spend it on a player who already has more top-end offensive skill in their tool-belt as well as size and some of the other “intangibles” Tkachuk brings, even if not quite to that intense level.

      • Michael R says:

        Lets just hope with our premium 1st pick that we dont take Brendl, Lundmark, Jessiman,Montoya Sanguinetti or Mclrath again

  8. Michael R says:

    F you MC

    • Dave says:

      First and last warning. Pull that shit again and you’re banned. You’ve done nothing but instigate since you got here.

  9. Joen7 says:

    Anyone have any ideas about Ronning over 60 goals I know it’s a high scoring league but I don’t think anyone has gotten over 60 in over 20 years. Could he be a big time NHL scorer?

    • joe from newburgh says:

      That’s possible, but I’d settle for a younger version of Zuccarello

    • Michael R says:

      He’s an overage player….small….maybe has a shot to make the NHL but I wouldnt pencil him in as big time

      • Joen7 says:

        I know he is small, but over 60 goals is a big number I think the last guy to get 60 in WHL was Iginla in 1996. Like to see if he can step up in class and produce.

    • Reenavipul says:

      The NHL equivalent for the WHL is .31(or something like that) so if he had 1st line minutes he’d have a 22 goal potential.

      That’s nothing to sneeze at, but I’m not too sure he’d get top six minutes.

  10. Leatherneck says:

    It’ll be a miracle for the Rangers to get the #1….but we need to shoot for 6 to 8

    Every team is tanking….Vancouver could end up #1….and there was a time we could’ve caught them…Chicago and Islanders are tanking hard and I even mentioned the Isles with 2 picks in an earlier thread

    Edmonton, Montreal and Detroit tanked hard and now they can coast

    Rangers got BS points for what?

    There is a vast difference in talent level picking Wahlstrom/Bouchard over Farabee/Smith/Veleno/Lunderstrom

    Let’s be smart here….this draft year compares to 03 and for defenseman to 08
    Bodie wild will be a good get if we are picking Boston’s pick should they exit round 1

    I Still say they need to trade for a pick in round 1 and 2

    Columbus #1 pick could be had…2 of Montreal’s 4 picks in round 2 could be
    had

    I would not say this for 2019 draft…..2019 draft though is center rich but I don’t see anyone after pick 5 to be that elite #1 center

  11. Steve says:

    The cynic in me says as a rebuilding team in a big market, the Rangers have a better chance than pure statistics may suggest.

  12. Jason says:

    Yesterday, the NHL agreed to change the percentages for each draft pick…

    “In the meantime, the NHL is set to introduce new odds for next month’s draft lottery.

    Pending NHLPA approval, GMs were told that the last-place finisher will now have an 18.5 per cent chance of landing the No. 1 pick – up from 18 per cent last year (when Vegas was introduced), but down from the 20 per cent chance the Toronto Maple Leafs enjoyed after finishing last in the 2015-16 season.”

  13. Egelstein says:

    NYR have signed Lindgren to his ELC.

  14. avsucks says:

    If they get rid of AV its like a number one to me.

  15. John B says:

    “So in total, I clicked simulate 47 times before the Rangers nabbed the #1 overall pick. In that span, they picked at #2 once and #3 twice.”

    Dave, did you hit reset after each time?

    I did it and got the Rangers with the #1 overall 2x, #2 twice and #3 once, with #10 being the most common in about 18 total tries.

  16. RobFriedman says:

    Gorton: Trade up or trade one of your first rounders for another young stud.