What can Michael Grabner fetch in a trade?

When the Rangers signed Michael Grabner to a two-year deal two summers ago, it seemed like a deal designed for the expansion draft. Grabner certainly had a unique skill set and some value, but was never going to be relied upon to be the team’s leading goal scorer. However he’s done just that for the Blueshirts. He led the team with 27 goals last year, and is far and away the leading goal scorer this year with 21. He’s on pace for a 30 goal season.

A revitalized career in New York has done wonders for Grabner, who will certainly cash in on his back-to-back 25+ goal seasons. He won’t fetch a McDonagh return, but there is a good case to make that he could bring back a nice haul. After all, teams always need speed and goal scoring, and are willing to pay handsomely at the deadline.

It’s not hard to figure out what exactly what Grabner may fetch, as we just need to go back to last year to see what Minnesota paid for Martin Hanzal. That trade saw Hanzal go to Arizona with Ryan White (AHLer) to Minnesota for Grayson Downing (AHLer), a 1st rounder, a 2nd rounder, and a conditional 3rd rounder. That’s three draft picks, including two top picks, for a guy who had just 16 goals (10 assists) at the time of the deal. Hanzal was also a pending UFA at the time of the deal.

Even if you think that deal is way too high for Grabner, we have tons of evidence to show Grabner will fetch more than just a mere 2nd round pick. After all, Patrick Eaves was sent to Anaheim last year for a 2nd rounder. Tomas Jurco, Viktor Stalberg, and Brian Boyle each fetched 3rd rounders. None of these guys were even close to sniffing Grabner’s past two seasons.

“But Dave,” one might say, “Grabner is being overvalued by fans, right? Most of that is empty net goals.”

Usually I say yes here. However here’s one last key piece: Michael Grabner is one of just 21 players to have 48+ goals in the past two seasons. Teams pay for recent production. Plus when you look at that list, it’s tough to find someone who is as defensively proficient as Grabner. Scoring empty net goals means he’s trusted in those situations to defend a lead.

It’s important to level-set and not get hopes too high. Needs change at the deadline, and you never know where the market goes at any given time. However it’s also tough to ignore prior trades and what might be. Grabner is a very valuable piece to many teams, and should hopefully fetch the Rangers some much needed draft picks.