There’s no other way to put it: the Rangers are off to a terrible start this season.  But one month does not a season make.  Despite an overarching feeling of doom and gloom, the Rangers managed to stay within the magic number of 3 points of the last playoff spot when October ended.  There are still 69 (nice) games to go, and the task at hand for the Rangers is to have a good November to get themselves properly into the playoff picture.

Of course, there are more reasons for concern than hope.  Two days ago, Alain Vigneault was said to be coaching for his job.  Does that change going into tonight’s game against a good Tampa Bay team, just because the Rangers beat Vegas on Tuesday?  What about the highly public appearance of the Rangers’ top brass at the Montreal vs. Ottawa game earlier in the week?  Clearly, this is not a settled situation, and one wonders how this is all affecting the performance of the team in each game.

That said, it’s the job of professional athletes and coaches to deal with those external factors and not let them affect performance.  It’s a lot to ask, but to use a horrible cliché, the Rangers still control their own destiny this season.  And amazingly, there are some reasons to be optimistic.

Some Stats

While the Rangers’ possession deficiencies are well-documented (and at this point, expected), they still possess a potent attack.  As Carolyn Wilke (@Classlicity) posted yesterday and Dave commented on, the Rangers are slowly regressing to the mean after playing poorly and falling victim to some bad shooting luck.

https://twitter.com/Classlicity/status/925695333237121024?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

The Rangers are creating plenty of scoring opportunities, and their Expected Goals metric (19th in the NHL at 5v5 14th in all situations),  suggests that they should actually be around .500 in terms of their record (probably 3 points better than they are right now).

The Suddenly Average Metropolitan Division(?)

Look at the Metro standings.  No seriously, look at them.

At the time of this writing, the Devils are in first place.  The Islanders (and their league-leading PDO) in third.  Pittsburgh (with a -14 goal difference!) and Philadelphia occupy the Wild Card spots, and the Washington Capitals have just 11 points through their first 12 games.  The early read on this division is that it’s currently wide open.

Couple that with an Atlantic Division that seems to be Tampa Bay then everyone else, and there’s potential for an Eastern Conference playoff race where multiple spots are decided during the season’s final week.

The Henrik Factor

Until further notice, Henrik Lundqvist remains an elite NHL goaltender.  Slow starts are not new to the King, and while he has underperformed so far this year, a lot of that has to do with the lack of competent defense in front of him.

Tuesday vs. Vegas perhaps gave us an inkling that Hank is starting to round into form.  He made several jaw-dropping saves, and essentially kept the Rangers in it so they could wake up for the third period and mount a comeback.  It was vintage Lundqvist, despite the four goals conceded.  If Lundqvist begins stringing those types of performances together, the Rangers are certainly capable of going on extended winning streaks (a bad 2015-2016 Rangers team started 16-3-2, you may recall).

While it’s been easy to focus on the negative, the season is just a month old.  Here’s hoping November is better than October.

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